'Congress' Biggest Mistake Was...'

'... to think apna time aa gaya after the 2024 election.'

"Mamata Banerjee's mass leadership credentials, Arvind Kejriwal's strategic and political management, Rahul Gandhi's ideological convictions -- put them together and you will have a half decent Opposition to take on the BJP," notes senior journalist Rajdeep Sardesai whose latest book 2024: The Election That Surprised India is already a bestseller.

In Mumbai recently, he spoke to Rediff.com's Archana Masih about the Congress' lack of narrative for the urban middle class, the dangers of religion in politics and what to expect from the Delhi elections.

• Part 1 of the Interview: 'Delhi Wants To Send A Message To Mumbai That...'
• Part 2 of the Interview: 'BJP Is A Powerful Machine'

What is your assessment of Rahul Gandhi post the Lok Sabha result? Every time we think of him as a serious politician, he turns into an absentee landlord going by his indifferent campaign in Haryana and Maharshtra.
The Congress did more rallies in Wayanad than in Maharashtra.

That is part of the problem for the Congress in the last 10 years. Just as I would not give credit for every BJP win to Narendra Modi, it will be unfair to blame Rahul Gandhi for every Congress defeat.

The Congress has become organisationally fossilised. The Congress is fossilised. It is unable to throw up new strategies, new leaders and new energies.

Rahul Gandhi sees himself as an ideologue to provide ideological direction to the party which is alright, but power politics is about strategy, building the organisation.

The Congress does not have a robust organisation to take its message to the people.

The Congress' biggest mistake was to think apna time aa gaya after the 2024 election. They got carried away because they did well in states like Maharashtra.

There is a joke that nothing succeeds in the Congress like failure. People responsible for losing 80% of the elections would be on their way out, but the same faces can be seen election after election.

The party is unwilling to learn from its mistakes and therefore is the perfect opponent for the BJP.

The BJP is more afraid of regional parties which can throw some googlies so they attempt to break regional parties like in Maharashtra, but the Congress has not learnt its lessons.

Was the Congress out of sync going on and on about Mr Adani when Maharashtra wanted to hear something else?

Quite right, but the Congress has every right to raise issues like Adani.

The problem is that the Congress thinks one size fits all and has the same strategy for both the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections.

The main problem is that the Congress does not have a narrative for urban India. The urban middle class has moved away from the Congress and turned to religious politics. They felt let down by the Congress.

India is becoming more urban or rurban. Urban India is very aspirational and wants a better life for themselves and their children. Congress politics does not seem to be in sync with urban India in particular.

Arvind Kejriwal for all his weaknesses has offered a model for urban India. He has shown that he is investing in government schools, mohalla clinics. They may not have worked but he has thrown up an idea.

The Congress is a big legacy brand, but every brand has to reinvent. The Tatas had to reinvent and rebuild the company.

Samvidhan may have worked for a particular election, but is not a sustained strategy -- and that requires addressing the questions of urban India's aspirations, role of religion in politics.

The Congress needs to be clear on these issues and cannot pussy foot.

Rahul Gandhi has given the party an ideological direction, but hasn't addressed critical urban India questions nor has he provided organisation muscle.

Is India back to the period of harsh communal divisiveness?

We have been living with religion in politics particularly since the demolition of the Babri Masjid. It is the ghost that has never gone away. The difference is sometimes it is subtle, sometimes obvious, but it is there.

This hasn't started after 2014, it has been building up. When I started out in journalism in 1988-1989, you had to be very careful about saying Hindu Muslim in your copy, but today it is all normalised.

We in the media have also played a role in communalising this narrative and now it has reached the point where politicians obviously see a lot of benefit.

The BJP built itself by blaming the Congress of minority appeasement; today the BJP could be accused of majority appeasement. By batoge toh katoge you are trying to consolidate your vote bank.

We have reached a dangerous period of competing vote bank politics and that will amount to friction.

For example, if you go around the country searching for temples under mosques, you are creating potential social divisions and explosions like in Sambhal.

The role of religion in politics is not a new phenomenon. It is only getting brazen and citizens of India must be worried.

The genius of India is its diversity. The genius of this country was once is a Hindi film song Tu Hindu banega, na Musalman banega, insan ki aulad hai insan banega.

That was the Indian dream and that is how we distinguished ourselves from Pakistan.

Pakistan eventually became a Muslim Islamic country, we never mandated India to be a Hindu country. We should be worried if our laws, politics, society and institutions pit one community against the other.

What are the short term social and political trends that we are likely to witness?

In the short term, the BJP is the dominant party of India.

There will be a dominant executive at the Centre virtually creating conditions of potential friction with Opposition ruled states. This will be aggravated after delimitation two years from now.

Delimitation could well mean that southern states will feel penalised for lower populations. The one fear is that maybe the number of MPs from the south will be reduced. The government will have to manage that fear. There is already the feeling in southern states that we contribute maximum and economically get much less.

There will potentially be north versus south or west versus east frictions.

The real crisis this country faces is rozgar. The large number of youth entering the labour force are not employed or employable will have a huge social impact.

We are country where 10% account for 60% to 70% of all income. Managing the friction that may emerge in a country of haves and have nots and the visible inequality is a challenge.

What are your expectations from the Delhi elections? Can the BJP defeat Arvind Kejriwal?

Urban middle class has a huge role in Indian politics which is growing.

Arvind Kejriwal came as a whiff of fresh air by challenging both the Congress and BJP. Delhi gave him a resounding voice twice. He has been in power for more than a decade. Anti-incumbency has set in and he is more vulnerable than ever before, but the BJP also lacks a strong Delhi leadership.

Arvind Kejriwal has shown that he is ready to course correct and make strategic moves necessary to win.

AAP has built a network on the ground, especially in the poorer pockets of Delhi. But it is not going to be an easy ride. This is his toughest election.

But I would not write him off. He is capable of bouncing back. He is sharp politician and a strategist.

Mamata Banerjee's mass leadership credentials, Arvind Kejriwal's strategic and political management, Rahul Gandhi's ideological convictions -- put them together and you will have a half decent Opposition to take on the BJP.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com