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'Till the BJP does not understand Kejriwal they cannot win Delhi.'
The Budget has given a huge tax relief to the middle class, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's announcement that there will be zero taxes for those earning a salary of up to Rs 12 lakh a year.
With the tax relief coming days ahead of the Delhi assembly elections, political observers feel this may benefit the Bharatiya Janata Party which has been out of power in the national capital for nearly three decades.
Will Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal inflict another defeat on the BJP? Or will the BJP end AAP's rule in Delhi when the votes are counted on Saturday, February 8?
"One has to remember that Kejriwal has a tremendous hunger to win elections. He always understands the opposition's moves and does a pre-emptive strike," Ashutosh -- who was closely involved with Kejriwal and AAP after joining it in 2014 and went on to become its national spokesperson before quitting citing personal reasons -- tells Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff.com.
Will the Budget have the same effect on the Delhi assembly elections for the BJP like the Laadki Baahin scheme did in the Maharashtra elections?
I don't think so this will happen. You've got to understand the difference between Laadki Baahin and the Union Budget.
In the Laadki Baahin scheme, by the time the Maharashtra elections were conducted, three monthly installments (Rs 4,500) were deposited in the bank accounts of women in Maharashtra, whereas the Budget benefits have not trickled down to people's bank account yet.
One percent (swing) here and there I can understand, but the Budget will not have any major impact.
Delhi has a large middle class.
Yes, around 50 percent of the population.
There is the upper middle class, middle-middle class and lower middle class.
The upper middle class is upset with the Aam Aadmi Party as they were very hopeful of change for good and so was the affluent class, but they feel it did not happen for them.
It is the marginalised class of Delhi that wants AAP because they are getting free electricity and water.
Another plus point this time for AAP is that their election manifesto promises Rs 2,100 per month for the poor women of Delhi. This is a huge traction for the marginalised and poor women of Delhi.
Does it mean that a last ball six win for the BJP with the Budget won't happen?
The Budget came four days before the elections but to make the people of Delhi realise what it means to them takes time.
It takes time for a common person to realise the incentives in the Budget where one does not have to pay income tax if s/he earns Rs 12 lakhs a year.
On the other hand AAP has been on the ground for the past four months, working hard among the people and announcing freebies in its manifesto. This makes more impact on the voter's life rather than a mere announcement in the Budget.
If you recall, during the Lok Sabha elections of 2019 the Congress too promised it will give Rs 6,000 per month to the poorest households but that did not make any impact because it was a mere announcement and money never actually flowed into the bank accounts of people.
And this is because of the 'trust worthiness' factor. People know who can deliver and who cannot. In Delhi, they have a choice to vote either for Parvesh Verma of the BJP or Arvind Kejriwal.
One important points you mentioned earlier is that the BJP is yet to decode Arvind Kejriwal's politics and that is why it does not win Delhi.
If the BJP treats the Aam Aadmi Party like it does the Congress in other states, it will never be able to understand Kejriwal's politics.
When Kejriwal came out of jail (on bail) he realised instantly that he is going to lose the Delhi assembly polls very badly.
After that he did three things immediately: First he quit as chief minister of Delhi; second, he left his home which the BJP was calling Sheesh Mahal; third, he went to the public by doing rallies and padyatras to boost support for his party.
He retrieved lost ground in this way.
One has to remember that Kejriwal has a tremendous hunger to win elections.
The day he realised he is going to lose elections he quit the chief minister's chair.
He always understands the opposition's moves and does a pre-emptive strike.
When he came to know that the BJP is going to talk about the poor quality of Yamuna water or the pollution of Delhi, he apologised to the people of Delhi before the BJP could make that move. He promised Delhi voters he will repair the damage if elected again.
Another thing if you observe, when the news broke out that in Maharashtra additional votes were added to the voters list, Kejriwal jumped in and started the allegation that in Delhi too the same thing was happening, which put the BJP and Election Commission on the back foot.
He spoke of giving Rs 18,000 salary to Hindu priests, then wooed senior citizens by announcing medical facilities to them for free.
Kejriwal is connected to ground politics and knows he can correct the course if something is going wrong for his party.
The BJP on the other hand is arrogant over its huge size and abundant resources.
As you have written in the past, the BJP depends on three formidable things to win elections: Narendra Modi's charisma, capital, and communication.
It is only Kejriwal and Mamata Banerjee in the Opposition who beat the BJP on these issues. Both of them are ground leaders.
Till the BJP does not understand Kejriwal they cannot win Delhi. Only if there is some chamatkar can the BJP can win now.
Why is Rahul Gandhi personally attacking Kejriwal?
The truth is after the Lok Sabha elections, AAP leader Gopal Rai stated clearly that their alliance with the Congress was for the Lok Sabha and not the Delhi assembly elections.
When AAP broke the alliance the Congress had no option but to go it alone.
The Congress lost ground due to AAP and now if there is no alliance, then the BJP and AAP are the same for them.
Is Kejriwal at the lowest point of his career?
There is a huge anti-incumbency factor.
The first anti-incumbency Kejriwal faces is due to his party ruling Delhi for 10 years.
The second incumbency is that AAP won the Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections (in December 2022) so there too Kejriwal is facing anti-incumbency.
Thirdly, he has MLAs in his party who have won three consecutive elections and they are contesting this time too, which is another anti-incumbency for him.
It is very difficult to win elections in this scenario. There is a fatigue factor for voters too.
Another battle he is fighting is with the lieutenant governor of Delhi who does not let Kejriwal rule easily. He then has the Delhi police who on any excuse files FIRs against him or his party workers.
The BJP on the contrary has huge money power, institutional support and a leader like Narendra Modi.
And here it is only Arvind Kejriwal, who is contesting elections against this giant mammoth with so little resources.
Can we say Kejriwal will give the BJP a tough fight?
It is the narrative which Kejriwal is setting for the elections and winning.
Take, for example, the BJP was attacking Kejriwal over the dirty waters of the Yamuna under his rule and how he countered it.
He twisted this debate, and it can be debatable whether it is right or wrong, but then Kejriwal did say the Haryana government ruled by BJP poisons Delhi's water which flows from their state.
They can do genocide in Delhi, he said, which is an offensive statement and one must not use such words. But then, the BJP was doing a spin on these words for three days without understanding Kejriwal's game plan.
Modi said he too drinks the Yamuna water that flows into Delhi.
Now, if the PM of India is drinking the same Yamuna water, how can he accuse Kejriwal of failing to clean Yamuna water?
The BJP's Haryana chief minister, Nayab Singh Saini, goes to the Yamuna and drinks water straight from the river, and this is how Kejriwal traps the BJP.
He was making the BJP leaders run around in circles for three days without them knowing Kejriwal's game plan on the Yamuna.