'Trump Deep Down Admires Modi'

'When compared to many of America's treaty allies in Asia, Modi 3.0 is on a much stronger footing.'

"The wild card is Elon Musk, a major power centre in this administration. India is somewhat sceptical of Musk because it feels burned by the latter's decision not to make India a hub for Tesla's electric vehicle manufacturing," says Milan Vaishnav, director and senior fellow, South Asia Program, Carnegie Institute of International Peace.

After India changed its EV policy to sweeten the pot for Tesla, Musk chose instead to double down on China.

"India still bears some scars from this spurning, but it has no choice but to rebuild its relationship with Musk, for political expediency if nothing else," Dr Vaishnav tells Rediff.com's Archana Masih on what to expect from Modi's visit to the White House later this week.

Prime Minister Modi is visiting to Washington this week and is only the third leader after Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu and Japan's Shigeru Ishiba to visit Mr Trump in his second term as president.
What weight and importance does it signify for India -- and also for the US?

I think Modi coming to DC so early on in Trump 2.0 is an important sign.

It demonstrates how central India is to US foreign policy, but it also demonstrates an eagerness on the part of the Modi government to show the new president that it is keen to discuss both challenges and opportunities in the relationship.

I am not expecting any fireworks or major announcements, but this visit is an important part of relationship management.

What will be the main talking point? What are some of the gains that India would expect to deem this visit a success?

I think India is, above all, hoping to make it through this visit without aggravating underlying tensions in the relationship. Between Bangladesh, Adani, and 'murder-for-hire' allegations, there have been plenty of sore spots of late.

So, in some sense, the most important goal is to signal a 'turning of the page,' at least for the public.

Beyond symbolism, India is hoping that the visit produces a reaffirmation of the strategic alignment India and the United States have enjoyed over the past quarter-century.

With rumours swirling about the possibility of a US-China rapprochement, India wants to ensure that the gains the two sides have made in terms of balancing and deterring China do not dissipate.

Finally, I expect India is looking to receive some reassurance that its moves on trade (including a reduction in certain customs duties announced in the recent Budget) and migration are duly recognised, and that the President understand the Modi government is acting in good faith.

If India can accomplish these three things, I think the Modi government will celebrate the visit as a success.

What are some of the stakes of the Modi visit? He is known to be friendly with Trump, but Trump II is a different ballgame. Will Modi have to tread on eggshells as he steers India's relations with US?

India is in a relatively good position vis-a-vis the new administration. India is not in the firing line, unlike Canada, Mexico, Iran, or China.

Trump and Modi have an established rapport. And Trump deep down admires Modi and his 'strongman' image. His admiration for strong leaders is well known.

Even though the BJP is now in coalition and Modi's popularity has taken a hit, when compared to many of America's treaty allies in Asia, Modi 3.0 is on a much stronger footing in political terms.

The wild card in all of this is Elon Musk, who has emerged as a major power centre in this administration. India is somewhat sceptical of Musk because it feels burned by the latter's decision not to make India a hub for Tesla's electric vehicle manufacturing.

After India changed its EV policy to sweeten the pot for Tesla, Musk chose instead to double down on China. India still bears some scars from this spurning, but it has no choice but to rebuild its relationship with Musk, for political expediency if nothing else.

The visit comes a week after the deportation of illegal Indians in a military plane. Migration and deportation will be among the top topics of discussion.
Considering the heat from the Opposition in India, what would India's expectations from USA be in this regard?

India knows that deportation flights will continue, and I think it will signal its willingness to work with America on this. At the same time, the way in which the recent repatriation flight was conducted -- using military aircraft, with passengers in shackles, and so on -- these are things which have put the Modi government in a difficult spot.

The Opposition has used these graphic images and videos to criticise the Modi government for 'caving' to the new administration.

I do not know whether Modi will raise this issue directly, but you can bet that it will be (and already is) a topic of discussion amongst top aides on both sides.

I expect Modi will want to signal his desire to work with the United States on a humane mechanism for returning irregular Indian migrants. But, in so doing, the Indian side will also seek some reassurance on legal immigration -- for tourists, students, and skilled workers.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com