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'Just because the NDA has a majority and the BJP is the single largest party does not mean that this Modi government enjoys a majority in the Lok Sabha.'
'It is always possible that some members (of the NDA and even the BJP) may defect, some members may not want him to be the prime minister and they might vote differently (against Modi) in the confidence vote.'
"Just as there is no necessity for the BJP to celebrate, there is also no great necessity for the Congress or the Opposition parties to celebrate (the 2024 verdict) because the INDIA bloc unity of 18 parties were able to win only 232 seats," veteran journalist, shrewd political analyst and former Congress Rajya Sabha MP Kumar Ketkar tells Prasanna D Zore/Rediff.com.
How different was this election compared to the 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections?
The 2024 Lok Sabha election is not comparable with any other election so far. This is a completely unique election in every respect. Certainly, it is not comparable with the 2014 or 2019 elections which were directed, coordinated and conducted by Narendra Modi.
For the first time in 2014, not just the single largest party, but also the majority party in Parliament was the BJP under Modi.
Until Modi arrived on the scene, every single government had been a coalition government ever since 1989-1990 -- the coalition government of V P (Vishwanath Pratap) Singh in 1989-1990; the Chandra Shekhar government of 1990-1991; after that the Narasimha Rao government (from 1991 to 1996); after that even the Atal Bihari Vajpayee governments and in fact every single government including that of Dr Manmohan Singh (both UPA I between 2004 and 2009 and UPA II between 2009 and 2014) governments were coalition governments.
2014 was the first time after 30 years, after Rajiv Gandhi's 1984 results, when the first government with full majority of its own was formed and therefore the 2024 elections has to be seen in the backdrop of 2014 and 2019 because Narendra Modi actually thought, and arguably quite confidently thought, that he would be able to cross or at least equal Rajiv Gandhi's performance of 1984.
Because of the two huge sweeps that the BJP under Narendra Modi's leadership had garnered one can say that it was Modi's politically legitimate expectation that the NDA under him would win more than 400 Lok Sabha seats.
When the election mood started in January 2024, there was no INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc. There was no Opposition unity. There was hardly any hawa or mood which can be described as anti-Modi or anti-BJP.
And yet in the 2024 election, the Opposition mobilised into reality the INDIA bloc with as many as 18 political parties coming together under that umbrella. This experiment itself was quite bold and unique. Such Opposition unity was not seen in 2014 or 2019. That also makes this election quite different.
Second unique point about the 2024 election is that it came only after Prime Minister Modi participated in the pran pratishtha of the Ram Mandir on January 22, 2024.
Now most people thought that the momentum created by the Ram Mandir's pran pratishtha and the overall atmosphere of Hindu-Muslim polarisation in last ten years was so intense that it was difficult to penetrate that polarised wall.
That belief was reinforced on the pran pratishtha day on January 22, 2024, to the extent that Modi said in public that January 22 should be declared as another Independence Day because Ram coming back to Ayodhya was a rising, a new awakening of an India out of its slavery of 1,000 years of foreign rule.
A tremendously polarised atmosphere (since 2014 when Modi's first term as the prime minister began), further triggered by the Ram Mandir inauguration clearly showed that Modi's confidence of winning more than 400 seats was not completely out of place. It was distinctly in the realm of possibility.
And that this did not happen, according to me, is the most significant aspect of this election.
What changed between January 22, 2024 and June 4, 2024? What changed between these six months that the BJP received a huge setback in this election?
I would not say that BJP has received a huge setback. But BJP has definitely received a setback. There is certainly no question of celebration in the BJP because they could not get even a simple majority (272 Lok Sabha seats in a 543-member Lok Sabha).
Just as there is no necessity for the BJP to celebrate, there is also no great necessity for the Congress or the Opposition parties to celebrate (the 2024 verdict) in a big way because the INDIA bloc unity of 18 parties were able to win only 232 seats.
If the INDIA bloc feels that Modi has been reduced to 240 it does not mean that the anti-BJP front has been able to capture power.
Ultimately the NDA has been able to secure 293 seats and Modi has been elected immediately by the NDA as its prime ministerial candidate.
But the 240 elected BJP Lok Sabha MPs are yet to elect Narendra Modi as their leader in the Lok Sabha?
The meeting of the BJP Parliamentary Party has not even been held. He has not been chosen as (the BJP's) leader in the Lok Sabha.
He has bypassed the parliamentary party and gone straight over to the NDA.
Every prime minister nominated, appointed, sworn in has to go through the confidence motion. A prime minister-elect becomes a legitimate prime minister only after he wins the confidence of the House after the confidence motion is passed in the Lok Sabha.
The prime minister (Narendra Modi) today, according to me, conventionally is not yet a legitimate prime minister because he has not gone through the motion of confidence vote.
Now confidence motion is important because it is not always possible that the confidence vote comes as per the majority in the Lok Sabha.
Just because the NDA has a majority and the BJP is the single largest party does not mean that this Modi government enjoys a majority in the Lok Sabha as it is always possible that some members (of the NDA and even the BJP) may defect, some members may not want him to be the prime minister and they might vote differently (against Modi) in the confidence vote.
Therefore, the confidence motion is extremely essential which Modi has completely bypassed (as of today) just as he has bypassed the BJP parliamentary party. This according to me is -- I don't know whether legal or not, Constitutional or not -- certainly a completely unconventional and undemocratic act.