'There will not be very heavy rain.'
'Moderate showers will be there and winds will be, say, somewhere between 20 and 40 km/hr, gusting to 35 km/hr.'
Skymet's Vice President Mahesh Palawat shares important updates with Prasanna D Zore/Rediff.com about cyclone Remal which is scheduled to make a landfall in Myanmar on Saturday, May 25.
What's the status on cyclone Remal even as heavy rains are being reported from parts of Kolkata on Thursday morning? How is it likely to proceed from here?
This will not be a cyclone. As of now, we do not expect it to become a cyclone. As of now, it is a well-marked low pressure area and by the morning on May 24, it will be intensifying into a depression and further into a deep depression. The next stage (after deep depression) is a cyclone.
A deep depression further intensifies and leads to a cyclone.
There are only 30% chances of its intensification into a cyclone. (Even if there is a cyclone) it would be a weak cyclone.
Not much weather activity. So eastward of the country will be almost safe. However, there may be moderate showers with isolated heavy spells over Gangetic West Bengal and northern coast of Odisha on May 25.
As of now, it is moving in a north east direction towards Myanmar. So the impact will be over Myanmar and thereafter it will move over to Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
After making landfall or nearing the coast, it will lose its intensity and heavy showers will continue over the north eastern states for another two to three days.
So it will not be very heavy, not dangerous, but yes, weather will be very pleasant and there will be decent rainfall.
Earlier, there were reports that it could head towards Maharashtra and Gujarat.
But this (disturbance) is in the Bay of Bengal. It cannot go to the Arabian Sea.
But there were reports two days ago that it could head towards Maharashtra and Gujarat.
No cyclone can cross from the Bay of Bengal (and reach Maharashtra on the west coast of India). If it is in southwest Bay of Bengal, then it can cross Tamil Nadu and Kerala because that strip is narrower. But it cannot go to Maharashtra and Gujarat.
It is moving in a northeasterly direction. It is an unusual track. Usually it moves in a northwesterly direction towards the east coast and recurves towards Bangladesh, but it is moving towards a northeastern direction. And furthermore, the sea travel (over the Bay of Bengal) will be very short.
Today it is a low pressure area and by the evening of May 25 it will be making landfall.
Where is it likely to make landfall?
Mostly, landfall will be in northern parts of Myanmar.
The sixth phase of the Lok Sabha election in West Bengal is scheduled on May 25. Which parts of the Bay of Bengal will get experience rains?
Areas in West Bengal's Gangetic plains, that is, the North and South 24 Parganas, Midnapore, Howrah, Hooghly, Santiniketan, Kontai, Purulia and Bankura and in Odisha it will rain in parts of Puri, Bhubaneshwar, Khorda, but these rains will not be very heavy.
Would these rains be heavy enough to disrupt the elections in West Bengal?
Now there is hot and humid weather conditions and people are facing this heat. So weather will become pleasant.
Isolated pockets may get intense rainfall for a short duration. But it will not disturb the election process. But some precautions must be taken (Tamluk, Kanthi, Ghatal, Jhargram, Medinipur, Purulia, Bankura and Bishnupur are the eight Lok Sabha constituencies going for elections on May 25).
There will not be very heavy rain. Moderate showers will be there and winds will be, say, somewhere between 20 and 40 km/hr, gusting to 35 km/hr. Same conditions will prevail over coastal areas of Odisha.
