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'Five months after the elections in February 2024, the Pakistan army has not been able to break Imran Khan's resolve and break his political party.'
With the Pakistan government led by the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)'s Shehbaz Sharif mulling a move to ban jailed leader Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) party for its anti-national activities since and before his arrest in May 2023, including the Long March he launched in October 2022 and the attack on the army's Rawalpindi headquarters in August 2023, the country confronts more domestic turmoil that could easily snowball into a major face-off between PTI supporters and the Pakistan army which cobbled together a puppet government after no party secured a majority in Pakistan's national assembly in the elections in February 2024.
"Imran Khan continues to be stubborn and sticking to an uncompromising position even after almost two years in jail," Avinash Mohananey, who spent a considerable time in Pakistan on security assignments as a Intelligence Bureau officer, tells Prasanna D Zore/Rediff.com.
The first of a two-part interview:
A year after his arrest in May 2023, what does the Pakistan government's move to ban Imran Khan's PTI indicate about the political turmoil in the country?
What is actually happening in Pakistan right now is a game of kind of tug of war -- tension between the army and Imran Khan and his party (the PTI).
The army wants Imran Khan to toE their line. That he should first apologise for the May 9 incidents of last year when army installations were targeted. The corps commander, Lahore's house was set ablaze.
But Khan has steadfastly refused to do so.
On May 26 (2024), Imran Khan tweeted a video of the surrender of the Pakistan army in Dacca on December 16, 1971 on X. Though he is in jail, his (social media) account is being handled by his party supporters.
In this tweet he compared himself with Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (who led the resistance against the Pakistan army in then East Pakistan and later became Bangladesh's first president till his assassination in August 1975) and Asim Munir, the present army chief, with General Yahya Khan (Pakistan's military dictator in 1971).
So he (Imran) continues to target the present army chief, the army leadership, which is kind of unacceptable to the army and the army chief.
While (PTI Chairperson) Gohar Ali Khan, who is now heading the party, has denied that Imran Khan had done so there's been no clarification from Imran that he didn't tweet it (that this tweet was posted without his authorisation), leading to continuous lampooning of the present army chief by PTI supporters in the US and UK.
It is also believed that he wrote an article in The Telegraph newspaper of the UK in which he squarely blamed Asim Munir for the electoral malpractices that he believed took place during the February 2024 elections.
What Imran Khan wants is that the army should install him as the next prime minister, should keep all these other Opposition leaders in jail for their alleged malpractices and corruption cases and be given a free end to select his own favourite army chief and the DG-ISI.
Why is Imran Khan so antagonistic towards the Pakistan army and the US?
(Qamar Javed) Bajwa (the who stepped down as army chief in November 2022) moved against Imran Khan when he was the prime minister largely because all three major international interlocutors of Pakistan -- America, China and Saudi Arabia -- were against Imran Khan.
The US was particularly angry with Imran Khan because of his presence in Moscow on the day Putin launched an attack on Ukraine in February 2022.
They (the US) are not ready to accept this explanation that he was in Moscow then by chance when Putin launched an operation (against Ukraine).
Donald Lu, the assistant secretary of state (for South and Central Asian Affairs since 2021), told the Pakistan ambassador in Washington that he (Imran) could have come back from there, but he didn't. So they don't give a benefit of doubt to Imran Khan.
Secondly, he was unhelpful at the time of withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. He compared the withdrawal of American troops to the breaking of the shackles of slavery by the Taliban, which didn't go down well with the Americans. He was stridently critical of American policies (in Afghanistan and Pakistan) that time (when he was prime minister).
Lu said it can all be forgiven if Imran is removed from the scene. Imran is cross that the Americans had a hand in his removal in 2022.
Is Imran Khan then fighting a losing battle given that the US, China and the Saudis don't want him in Pakistan's politics?
Yes, he is in a difficult situation internationally and vis-a-vis the army, but domestically he is still enjoying a lot of electoral advantage over all other political parties.
That is where the trigger for banning his party is coming from.
Apart from banning the PTI, the Pakistan establishment (the army and the Shehbaz Sharif's coalition government headed by the PML [N]) is also launching a 'high treason' case against him for violating the constitution during the no confidence motion in April 2022.
They are using Article 6 of the Pakistan constitution to lodge a treason case against him, the former president of Pakistan, Dr Arif Alvi, and the former deputy speaker of the national assembly, Qasim Khan Suri.
Basically, the army is behind all this. It still wants to fix him. The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) is only an instrument that is being used by the army.
The real trigger came when in the recent judgment of the supreme court of Pakistan, the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf was recognised as a political party and the 39 candidates (they belonged to the PTI but had fought as independents in the February 2024 elections) that got elected to the national assembly who wrote PTI as their party in the affidavits were considered as the members of the PTI.
The rest 41 -- the total is 80 -- were asked to provide their affidavits within 15 days so that they can also be recognised as elected representatives of the PTI; it's a complete revival of the PTI as a political party in the national and provincial assemblies.
The PTI is totally supported by the Pakistan supreme court and in its majority judgment -- eight versus five, although the chief justice was on the minority side -- it ruled to give recognition to the PTI as a political party and allow those 80 elected members to the PNA as elected representatives of the PTI.
Will the supreme court play ball with the Pakistan government's move to ban the PTI?
Any move to ban the PTI will have again to face the scrutiny of the supreme court. Seeing what is happening now in the supreme court, it is difficult that it will go through.
So maybe it is only a kind of a threat being held against Imran Khan to fall in line.
The problem with the Pakistan army has been that even five months after the elections in February, it has not been able to break the resolve of Imran Khan and break his political party.
Imran Khan continues to be stubborn and sticking to an uncompromising position even after almost two years in jail.
What benefit could the PML (Nawaz), which is the proxy of the Pakistan army, as you say, possibly derive from a move that will further enrage PTI supporters on the ground?
The problem with the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) is that it is now unable to politically match the PTI's support among masses. It continues to be in power because the army has cobbled up the alliances for it and enthroned Shehbaz Sharif can as the prime minister.
The moment the army stops supporting Sharif, his government will collapse within an hour. It can't survive at all.
But wouldn't such an event go against Pakistan's national interest? Wouldn't it lead to more domestic turmoil?
I agree. Because now, if it (the government's move to ban the PTI) doesn't stand the scrutiny of the supreme court then it will backfire (against the government and army); with IMF conditionalities coming into force, the economic situation is becoming graver every day. The Chinese have refused to reschedule loans.