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'The Hindu electorate is more or less in the BJP defined space now.'
Yogi Adityanath was elected leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party legislature party in Uttar Pradesh on Thursday, March 24, 2022. This clears the way for his swearing in as UP chief minister in Lucknow on Friday, March 25. It will be the first time since 1985 that an UP CM has won consecutive terms in office -- Congress veteran Narain Dutt Tiwari was that chief minister, and Uttar Pradesh had yet to be divided into UP and Uttarakhand.
The BJP's 2022 election victory was only the third time that the party won an assembly election on its own steam. It was in 1991 that the BJP first captured UP, then in 2017.
Yogi -- who will turn 50 on June 5 -- was catapulted from five-time Lok Sabha MP to UP CM in March 2017.
There is already talk about Yogi being groomed as BJP supremo and Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi's political heir. Columnist Shekhar Gupta, writing the day after the election results, declared Yogi as the BJP's second-most popular leader..
"Adityanath had made it very clear that he was going to establish a rule of the bulldozer. So, that threat is very much there... The economic, political and emotional life of Muslims is going to be very tough," Delhi University Professor Apoorvanand, an astute observer of politics in the Hindi heartland, tells Rediff.com's Shobha Warrier in the first of a two-part interview:
As a keen observer of UP politics, were you expecting this kind of spectacular victory for the BJP?
Yes, the victories were massive.
To be truthful, I was not expecting a victory so great for the BJP.
The victories in the four states show that it cannot be called a north India centric force now as it has asserted its presence in the north east.
In Uttarakhand also, the Congress was expected to do much better.
What was very clear from the reports from UP was that the BJP was bound to come back.
First reason was, the gap between the BJP and the other parties has been very huge from 2017 onwards.
To bridge the gap was an uphill task for the other parties.
Was the vote for the party, or Modi or Yogi?
All three are one. We should not separate these three.
This is an academic exercise when we try to differentiate between Modi and the party and Adityanath.
I think in the minds of the electorate, there is no such difference.
Because we analysts have to do something, we try to analyse them separately.
Let's accept, it's a vote for the BJP. And for the ideological programme of the RSS.
Let's not say that it's not the vote for the ideology of the BJP, it was only for the charisma of Modi.
No, the charisma of Modi arises from the ideology of the BJP.
You take the ideology away, and the charisma goes.
So, you think people are more accepting of BJP ideology?
I wouldn't say, 'people'. I would say, Hindus. The Hindu electorate is more or less in the BJP defined space now.
With the kind of anti-Muslim narrative -- '80:20' -- which Yogi employed in the election campaign, what will happen to Muslims in UP?
First, it has not been as Adityanath wanted. As Siddharth Varadarajan (editor-in-chief, The Wire Web site) says, it is 45-55.
But two things can happen. Adityanath has not hidden his hatred towards Muslims. He had made it very clear again and again that he despised Muslims, and he wanted BJP followers to do the same thing. There is no ambiguity there.
Second is the way he used the law and order machinery to silence or disable all protests which he has been doing since 2017.
It was a dire situation for the Muslims who live in UP. In fact, not only for the Muslims who live in UP, but those Muslims who live in other states.
Take the case of Sidhique Kappan, a journalist. A person with a Muslim name visiting UP is a danger, and so he is at risk. He can be imprisoned, he can brutalised.
It is not just about Kappan, but about others too.
So, the life of Muslims is going to be very, very, tough, not just emotionally but economically too.
Economically, it has been a nightmare for the Muslims in UP which others don't understand.
With this ban on slaughter houses, the tannery industry in Kanpur has suffered a lot. And it has not been talked about much.
So, the economic, political and emotional life of Muslims is going to be very tough.
There is another side to the whole story too. The number of Muslim MLAs in the new UP assembly has increased.
So, if the Muslim MLAs decide that they are going to assert themselves, we may see a different picture emerging.
There is also a strong Opposition now. It can, in the House and outside, give voice to the 55 which doesn't agree with the BJP.
When you have a ruler that follows a certain ideology, will it silence the Muslims?
In 2019, Muslims in India protested against the CAA and they had to pay a heavy price for that.
23 of them were killed, hundreds of them were jailed, hundreds and hundreds of FIRs filed against them.
In UP, they were slapped with recovery for doing something illegal which I feel is a kind of robbery of Muslims on the part of the UP government.
Democratic assertion has been a culture of India, and to expect Muslims to go silent is not possible. They will keep asserting themselves.
Yes, it will be very difficult.
You have to underline the fact that Adityanath had made it very clear that he was going to establish a rule of the bulldozer. So, that threat is very much there.
But since there are more than 35 Muslim MLAs in the new UP assembly, they will be politically more assertive.
Secondly, since the Muslims have seen the worst, what can be worse than this?
Will there be an eruption of discontent?
There will be protests, and there will be opposition in many forms.
If you repress and if you go on humiliating, you cannot expect the Muslims to remain silent even if you have the forces and power to attack them.
I think Muslims will assert themselves democratically.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com