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'BSP will remain a player, but only a marginal player, as long as the BJP is extremely dominant in North India politics.'
With no viable second line of leadership, does the Bahujan Samaj Party have a future?
Or will BSP supremo Mayawati's leadership style end up Dalits an important force that voiced their concerns and resulted in their empowerment?
"At any point of time, Dalit votes will shift wherever they feel they will get something," Sudha Pai, retired professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, tells Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff.com.
Pai, arguably the most authoritative scholar on the BSP, is the author of Dalits in the new Millenium and co-author of Politics of Representation: Historically Disadvantaged Groups in India's Democracy.
In the last six months Dalits have gone back to voting for the Bharatiya Janata Party in large numbers, like in the recent UP by-elections?
The 2024 shift of Dalit votes to INDIA bloc was a one-time shift. The Congress got six MPs and SP did well (with 35 MPs vis a vis the BJP which got 32).
One must understand the fact that Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has complete hold over eastern Uttar Pradesh. Yogi began (his political journey) in 1997-1998 through his Hindu Yuva Vahini to mobilise Dalits.
Throughout the Terai area he had gained a certain hold over Dalits and lower OBCS and made them anti-Muslim. He has a certain Robin Hood-like image among the poor of that area. They feel he will help them so it is better to side with him rather than anybody else.
These factors push the Dalits away from the BSP.
What about the Muslims of UP, they were part of the BSP in large numbers. But even they seem to have abandoned her.
Mayawati made no attempt to bridge the relations between Dalits and Muslims post the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.
It is not that only the Brahmins and Dalits of UP brought her to power. It was the Muslims of UP and lower OBCs who supported her in 2007.
The reason her downfall happened was because Mayawati has been doing unpredictable things in her politics.
It is difficult to make out what is on her mind but one thing is for sure, Mayawati wants to be in control within the BSP. She wants a firm grip on the party.
But don't Dalits empathise with the state of the Muslim community when they face discrimination in UP?
After the Muzaffarnagar riots Dalits and Muslims have moved away from each other. There has not been a coming together of the two at all.
If you see the social base of the BSP and SP they have both Dalits and Muslims. After the Muzaffarnagar riots I interviewed Kadir Rana, MP, he told me that whenever Muslims used to call him for help during riots, he used to rush immediately to help them.
Dalits in turn used to tell him 'Dekho bhaag gaya.' And when he would rush to help Dalits, Muslims used to feel, 'He is supporting Dalits and not Muslims.'
Somehow there is a certain wedge between Dalits and Muslims that has been driven by the BJP.
The riots have created this problem between the two communities in western UP.
There has been a consistent anti-Muslim mobilisation and if upper caste Hindus are affected by this anti-Muslim rhetoric, how can Dalits not be affected? They see themselves as Hindus.
It is the Jatav community (of Dalits) who are still with Mayawati.
BSP will remain a player, but only a marginal player, as long as the BJP is extremely dominant in North India politics.
A sad end for the BSP, isn't it?
Yes, it is a sad ending for the BSP for now.
But look at the achievements of the party.
The Dalits got empathy to empowerment and now they are looking for much more.
When the upper caste votes for lower caste parties and moves from the Congress to the BJP and then to the SP to BSP, no eyebrows are raised but when Dalits do the same for their own economic benefit, sure of the fact that the BSP will not give them or that Yadavs will not bother, it is natural for them to move to the BJP. They go to the BJP and get whatever the party is giving to them.
My problem is when people expect Dalits should vote only for Dalit parties.
I think there is a certain maturing of the Dalit movement in North India. They do not see things as they used to see things in the 1990s.
Look at the Dalit students in universities; they want to be part of the higher part of the economy.
Dalits want to enter the IT sector and do not want to be scavengers or cleaners.
There has been a shift from the great desire for social justice, which remains, to aspiration.
Does it mean Dalits today feel that their aspirations can be met only by the BJP and no other party is capable of doing it?
At this point, the answer is yes.
But at any point of time, Dalit votes will shift wherever they feel they will get something.
In 2024 they went to the INDIA bloc but then that proved to be a broken alliance.
Look at what they did in Haryana and after that in the Maharashtra elections. So, Dalits went back to the BJP.
If tomorrow the INDIA group becomes strong they will go back to INDIA.
Dalit politics is seeing a great transition without a party of their own and without a strong leader of their own.
They are extremely fragmented and are ready to vote for any party which will give them something.
They are also doing strategic voting.
In Nagina, it was a four-way contest and nobody gave a chance for Chandra Shekhar Azad to win but he won.
When I predicted he was going to win in an article in a leading newspaper everyone laughed at me. But he won.
What has the BSP achieved for the Dalits of UP since its existence? And what is the future?
As long as there is a strong hegemonic party like the BJP it will be very difficult for a party like the BSP.
One should not look at it negatively. The BSP achieved what it set out to achieve.
The BSP was not a party to give economic benefits to Dalits.
It was a party that was supposed to give self-respect, dignity, self-confidence, and empowerment.
I think it has played its role.
Do the upper castes in UP now give respect and dignity to Dalits in the name of Hindutva?
I don't think so.
UP is one of the most conservative states of India. They may not show it openly as they do against Muslims openly during communal riots.
Upper castes want to accommodate Dalits and they want their support and want them to be counted as Hindus. It is something that exists from the colonial period.
Upper castes wants Dalits to be counted in the Hindu population so that it will be more than the Muslim population.
Upper castes are very smart and conservative in Uttar Pradesh. As long as they are getting Dalit votes they are not bothered about anything else.