Commentary/T V R Shenoy
The Punjab rout means Kesri can now stop dreaming of becoming prime minister
In this competitive age, schoolchildren are taught that anything
less than 100 out of 100 is unacceptable. But did you know that
even 14 out of 117 is something to smile about? That, in a nutshell,
is the result of the Punjab assembly poll.
But first, a word for the winners -- the people of Punjab. They
are finally free of long spells of President's Rule and Congress
misrule. (One can only hope the voters of Uttar Pradesh too have
their rights restored.)
That said, it isn't just the Akali-Dal-BJP alliance that should
be cheering. It is also the United Front (Janata Dal, CPI-M,
Samajwadi Party). The guardians of 'secularism' haven't
won a single seat. But that doesn't worry them.
Why? Because the people of Punjab have reminded the Congress just
how low the party stands in the public eye. Which means Congressmen
can't afford to shake the boat just now.
Up to now, it was possible for the Congress to blame its fall
in North India on Narasimha Rao. And that was precisely the course
followed by the party. After all, anti-Rao rhetoric worked for
the non-Congress parties, didn't it!
Sitaram Kesri, who played his Gandhi cap at Rao's feet when made
president, bulldozed the fallen leader. And new depths were reached
when S B Chavan, home minister throughout the Rao years, accused
him of every sin in the book.
But whom does the Congress propose to blame for the debacle in
Punjab? Sitaram Kesri replaced H S Brar, a Rao loyalist, with
his own choice as chief minister. He replaced Ambika Soni, the
party observer for Punjab, with Ghulam Nabi Azad.
All this was done in the name of revitalising the party. It hasn't
worked. Because Kesri was trying to cure cancer with plastic
surgery.
The Congress party is rotten to the core. The Beant Singh, Brar,
and Bhattal ministries were seem as monuments to corruption and
nepotism. Those criticisms can be applied to the Congress in every
other state too.
So shuffling faces at the top won't solve anything. Because the
voters know perfectly well that the new people are no better than
the old lot. (Frankly, I simply can't understand the logic behind
appointing someone like Ghulam Nabi Azad -- a Kashmiri who ran
away to Maharashtra talking rubbish about standing up to terrorism!)
When I speak of new faces at the helm of the Congress, I am not
limiting myself to a Bhattal or an Azad. That is equally true
of Sitaram Kesri.
Punjab was the testing ground of the post-Rao Congress. It was
where Kesri would prove that he could win an election. He has
failed utterly.
He can now stop dreaming of becoming prime minister. Instead,
he can start worrying about retaining his seat as Congress president.
The reason why the Congress united against Rao was because he
was seen as an obstacle to power. No party would join hands with
the Congress as long as Rao was the leader.
Once Narasimha Rao was out of power, Kesri felt free to bulldoze
H D Deve Gowda. He fed his party dreams of assuming power with
the help of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav.
But Punjab has proved that there is no point in any party allying
with the Congress. It has also shown Congress MPs their future
if they press Deve Gowda to dissolving the Lok Sabha -- sitting
in opposition to a BJP-led ministry.
The BJP has become stronger in the past eight months. (A recent
opinion poll says the party and its allies could win as many as
240 Lok Sabha seats if elections were held today.)
If the Congress really wants a share of power, it must do so by
joining the United Front. But can a Congress president serve under
a prime minister from another party?
Sitaram Kesri would lose every speck of authority by doing so.
Sharad Pawar, on the other hand, can do so easily enough. And
the canny Maratha leader has been preaching the virtues of co-operation.
That too would destroy Kesri. Ever since the famous clash between
Purushottam Das Tandon and Jawaharlal Nehru 45 years ago, Congressmen
have preferred the man in office to the man at the head of the
party. As deputy prime minister Pawar would be a far greater threat
to Kesri than Deve Gowda can ever be.
It is in Kesri's best interests, therefore, to retain the status
quo -- Deve Gowda as prime minister with Congress 'support from
outside'. But why should other Congressmen go along?
As noted above, the Congress ousted Rao because he kept them out
of power. Do they have any reason to treat Kesri with any greater
kindness?
We should know the answer in three months. The Congress organisational
elections are due to be held in May. Sitaram Kesri could win just
over one-tenth of Punjab's 117 seats. How many votes will he win
from the 8,000-odd Congress delegates?
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