Will Vijay Do Business With The BJP?

If the BJP has to work as a junior partner of Vijay's TVK, then either the party will have to change the state leader, or the latter should change himself.
Incidentally, ever since Vijay started talking politics and elections, the pro-BJP/Hindutva social media had stopped dragging his name into any non-existing issue.
In particular, they have stopped referring to him by his Christian name, 'Joseph Vijay', observes N Sathiya Moorthy.

Shorn of the frills, the huge crowds and the massive media coverage, both within the state and outside, Tamil actor-politician Vijay's speech at the launch of his political party, Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) is mostly without any new ideas, ideals or offering for the people/electorate.

He repeated all those that the average Tamil voter has been hearing for at least five decades, if not more.

What Vijay did afresh was deploying a lingo that was between the old-styled alliteration of the Dravidian political founders and the present-day easy-going style of present-generation speakers, like Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister Udhyanidhi Stalin, and cousin-parliamentarian Dayanidhi Maran, before him from the ruling DMK.

There were no alliterations of the Annadurai-Karunanidhi era, nor was it in chatty style. Instead, Vijay spoke every third or fourth sentence in a hoarse voice, which did not suit his on-screen style, not that he had the depth and width of voice for going into high octaves.

In the end, Vijay targeted the ruling DMK, skipped rival AIADMK and was vague at best on the BJP/Hindutva dominating the national scene.

What was special in his case was his expressed willingness to embrace other political parties for an electoral alliance with the promise of a 'coalition government', if elected to power.

This again was/is an invitation to DMK allies like the Dalit-strong VCK and the vote-less Communist parties, not to leave out sections of the Congress partner in the national-level INDIA combine.

While the former three were making noises about power-sharing after the assembly elections of 2026, which Vijay and his TVK are targeting, sections within the state Congress, including party President Selvaperunthagai and the better-known parliamentarian Karthi Chidambaram had taken pot-shots at the DMK.

The intention, it was believed, was for the state Congress to strike a better bargain in seat-sharing for the assembly polls, to be countered by lower-level DMK reaction for the party to go it alone in 2026.

However, before Vijay's announcement on Sunday, most others had patched up with the DMK and declared it as such. Even from within the state Congress, the dissenting voices fell silent a month or so ago.

Yet, it takes a lot of courage for an infant party to declare itself in favour of a new electoral alliance in contemporary Tamil Nadu.

Each of them, whether it was Vijaykanth's DMDK, Seeman's NTK or Kamalahaasan's MNM, they all fought their maiden election on their own -- if only to evaluate their own strength, to negotiate seat-sharing in subsequent polls.

Vijay thus has accepted the inevitability of an alliance for small and new parties without staying capacity in terms of vote-share and resources, which are huge that no individual or infant party can expect to shoulder.

It is also a huge risk as prospective alliance parties with known shares and claims of their own, if cut off from the existing DMK or AIADMK ally, would negotiate from a position of proven strength.

Also, on the face of it, a conglomerate of sub-regional parties under a regional party, which is what Vijay's is until proved otherwise electorally, can work wonders as long as there is synergy at the grass-roots level.

If not, it could be counter-productive, disastrous -- as those like the late G K Moopanar with his near-infant TMC, a breakaway faction of the Congress, found in the Lok Sabha polls of 1999.

In his speech, which was at times read out from a multi-page note, or he referred to intermittently, hence disjointed at best -- he bid bye to the crowds twice before retracting and adding more stuff -- Vijay specifically talked about the 'Dravidian model' and 'family rule', both of which refer only to the ruling DMK.

At one level, it makes immense electoral strength, as targeting a ruling party that existing rivals have not been able to trounce twice in a row -- Elections 2019 and 2021 -- makes good political sense.

Yet, devoid of a strong alliance in 2026, it could also mean that the TVK could end up as one more of many, eating into the votes of existing anti-DMK parties, even if as the new kid on the block, it could extract some of the non-committed voters, who might swing his way, owing mainly to the inevitability of 'anti-incumbency' against the incumbent.

For a strong alliance that can hope to win over the electorate, the TVK will have to do business with the BJP, claiming 10-per cent vote-share from this year's parliamentary elections but about a half at best in reality, the latter's estranged AIADMK ally, and the Vanniar-strong PMK, with a periodically proven five-per cent vote-share in the party's northern stronghold.

While expressing willingness at power-sharing, Vijay did indicate that they would all have to be junior partners under his leadership and chief ministership, if it came to that.

That may automatically rule out the AIADMK, whose leader Edappadi K Palaniswami is holding dear to the party chief's position, only with the hope of recapturing power in 2026 after a five-year gap.

The same may not apply to the OPS faction, under three-time chief minister O Pannerselvam, who may happily jump into a junior partner alliance with the TVK in 2026, after the leader's inability to win a lone parliamentary seat in the BJP's company this year.

The PMK is clear that they want chief minister's job for party president Anbumani Ramadoss, a former Union minister, or deputy chief minister under an established political party, the DMK if possible.

Whether Anbumani and the PMK would be ready to do business with Vijay, especially going by past experience when another south-oriented actor-politician, the late Vijaykanth, who inexplicably had a substantial vote share from distant north, where (alone) filmi fans convert into voters more than elsewhere.

As for the BJP as an ally of the TVK, both will have to wait for the return of state party President K Annamalai next month at the expiry of a three-month education-leave in the UK.

Annamalai did not hide his chief ministerial ambitions earlier, nor did the party high command express dissatisfaction with his performance even after losing the Lok Sabha polls badly, after contesting alone on his suggestion.

If the BJP has to work as a junior partner of Vijay's TVK, then either the party will have to change the state leader, or the latter should change himself.

Incidentally, ever since Vijay started talking politics and elections, the pro-BJP/Hindutva social media had stopped dragging his name into any non-existing issue.

In particular, they have stopped referring to him by his Christian name, 'Joseph Vijay'.

The reverse question is if in the run-up to the assembly elections, Vijay would come under pressure to work under a unified alliance, involving the BJP and/or the AIADMK but under another chief minister candidate.

For them all, the perceived transition in the DMK, from CM Stalin to Udhayanidhi Stalin is a temptation that they cannot avoid challenging, electorally.

Otherwise, Vijay said all the right things against 'corruption', but did not seemingly include the AIADMK factions or other political parties, including the BJP at the Centre.

Yet, on ideological issues, he made his position very clear, against NEET, and for a caste census -- issues all other non-BJP parties in the state have been highlighting all along.

However, his passing reference to a 'proportional representation' system of elections in the country is devoid of favourable arguments from his side.

After all, it has proved to be as disastrous as India's first-past-the-post system in neighbouring Sri Lanka, for instance, earlier.

The question is if by flagging the ubiquitous corruption charge purportedly against the ruling DMK, Vijay has exonerated the AIADMK, BJP and others. He will be asked to address these issues as days pass by.

So will be all those questions that would crop up at news conferences and airport media exchanges, the handling of which will require updated knowledge and policy-decisions.

The absence of the same exposed Rajinikanth time and again, contributing possibly to his decision to cry off, citing health reasons.

For now, a section of the VCK, the south-based Dalit party, PT, and a host of minor parties have welcomed Vijay's announcement on power-sharing.

NTK leader Seeman, who once offered to work with/under Vijay has now promptly criticised the latter's combo that combines Dravidian ideals of Periyar EVR (minus his anti-god views) and a pan-Tamil identity.

The fact is that he may be the one who stands to lose a substantial share of his eight per cent vote-share from the Lok Sabha polls this year, and was unnerved for a time, but not anymore, it seems.

For the record, Vijay has served only old wine in one more new bottle like many before him, and under a new brand name. Yet, there is no denying that actor Vijay has a huge fan following of youth, including women.

Will they convert to his voters too?

That is a big question and competitive poll promises could show the way between now and 2026.

At every turn at least until then, Vijay's every promise will be tested against his Vikravandi promise of Sunday, not to promise things that are not practical and pragmatic.

This will be more so when the ruling DMK continues to confer the voters with freebies and the rival AIADMK too may be tempted to follow suit.

Incidentally, Vijay's promise of a drugs-free Tamil Nadu did not specifically refer to total prohibition. Whether it was unintended or otherwise, he will be called upon to explain his position in the matter, sooner than later.

At present, Vijay seems to suffer from a strong political team, whose absence was felt when the party decided to have its launch conference in the middle of northern Tamil Nadu's monsoon-cum-cyclone season. The rain gods were kind that way.

If anything, reports indicated that fans and party workers waiting for his darshan since morning suffered in the scorching sun, and the police advised the organisers to start the conference earlier than the scheduled 4 pm and end it before the promised 9 pm, so that cadres, including women, could reach home in relative safety early on.

For a political party, the TVK leadership complied. That, indeed, was a good beginning, but there is still a long, long, way to go.

N Sathiya Moorthy, veteran journalist and author, is a Chennai-based policy analyst and political commentator.

Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com