What If China, America Make Up?

Trump spoke approvingly of his recent telephone conversation with Xi Jinping.
This could indicate the possibility of America and China reaching some level of tactical accommodation, which would not be good news for India, points out Ambassador Shyam Saran, a former foreign secretary.

If anyone believed that much of Donald Trump's presidential campaign agenda was mere rhetoric, she should have been comprehensively disabused of such notions.

Both in his inaugural speech and later during a free-wheeling interaction with the media while he signed several ordinances at the Oval Office, Mr Trump hit the ground running.

An unprecedented political situation prevails in the US today.

A key feature of the US political structure has been the constitutionally in-built system of checks and balances, with a separation of powers among the executive, the legislature and the judiciary, each with well-defined and relatively autonomous authority.

This time round, the presidency is unlikely to be restrained by Congress, as both houses are dominated by Republican majorities, and more importantly, by legislators beholden to Mr Trump's support or hesitant to oppose him for fear of retribution.

The US supreme court, packed with right-wing appointees during Mr Trump's first term, has already pronounced that the president would be immune from prosecution for any actions he takes while in office.

The federal nature of the US state may offer some constraint, especially from Democratic party ruled states.

But overall, Mr Trump is unlikely to face any meaningful opposition to implementing his radical policy measures.

Even the vibrant US civil society and liberal media, which could provide some semblance of resistance, are likely to be swamped by the social media controlled by his corporate acolytes, including Elon Musk with X and recent converts like the CEOs of Meta, Google and Amazon.

Mr Trump has sought to give a reprieve to the Chinese-owned TikTok, the popular video-sharing app, which had been banned from the US, a ban upheld by the supreme court.

In his press interaction, Mr Trump said that he had changed his mind about TikTok when he realised how much it had helped him to reach out to the young voters in the country. He was prepared to let it continue to operate if it became a 50:50 joint venture with a US company.

If, as many expect, TikTok is bought by Elon Musk, then Mr Trump would have the most powerful instruments of influencing and shaping public opinion, leaving traditional media far behind.

Expect a very different narrative emanating from the US -- more polemical, more populist and aggressive.

There will be fewer pretensions of upholding values and moral rectitude.

American foreign relations will be more influenced by domestic rather than external factors.

Mr Trump has once again walked out of the Paris Climate Agreement, as he did at the beginning of his first term.

In his inauguration speech, he reiterated his campaign slogan, 'Drill, baby, drill', removing regulatory constraints on fossil fuel companies.

This includes opening up pristine wilderness areas in Alaska for oil exploration, approving pipeline construction, and permitting additional terminals for LNG exports to external markets.

Additional terminals were not being licensed under President Biden to prevent a large increase in LNG exports, which would have led to increased gas prices in the US.

Mr Trump has declared an 'energy emergency' in the US even though the US is already self-sufficient in fossil fuel production and consumption.

What we may now witness is a significant ramp-up in oil and gas exploration and exports.

Say farewell to the much-touted 'energy transition' that the world committed to at COP 28 in the UAE in 2023.

In the short-term, India may benefit from lower energy prices.

It may be able to fend off US pressures on the trade front by agreeing to buy larger quantities of US oil and gas.

Longer-term, the serious setback to climate action would have more enduring adverse impacts.

Mr Trump demonstrated the seriousness of his anti-immigration agenda by signing an ordinance declaring a national emergency on the US southern border with Mexico.

The construction of the border wall along the entire frontier will be resumed and the documenting and extradition of illegal immigrants will be taken up in earnest.

The use of the US military in this operation will be authorised since it is a declared national emergency.

There may be an unprecedented humanitarian crisis as a result and even civic unrest.

Undocumented Indian immigrants -- some 19,000 -- will be affected and their repatriation to India is more than likely.

However, Mr Trump said he was open to foreign talent useful to the US being allowed entry.

This suggests the continuance of the H-1B visa issuance, which has become so important to India's IT sector.

Though tariffs are the centrepiece of Mr Trump's agenda, he refrained from announcing any specific measures except for threatening 25 per cent tariffs against Mexico and Canada if they did not accept US demands on the export of fentanyl and the prevention of illegal immigration into the US.

The threat to impose tariffs will serve as a bargaining lever to extract trade and other concessions from trading partners.

He did, however, announce the setting up of a new External Revenue Service, which would presumably assess, impose, and collect tariff revenues in a separate account.

This would enable him to showcase how much the US is earning from import tariffs.

For India, there may be pressures on the trade front, similar to those experienced during Mr Trump's first term.

Transactional workarounds, such as buying more US oil and gas or increasing defence hardware imports, may be employed.

Notably, there was no sharp rhetoric against China in either his inaugural speech or his press interaction.

While he claimed that China was controlling the Panama Canal (which is not true), he also spoke approvingly of his recent telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

This could indicate the possibility of the two countries reaching some level of tactical accommodation, which would not be good news for India.

If there is one real risk to watch for, this is the most consequential.

But the meeting of the Quad foreign ministers in Washington following the Trump inauguration and the issuance of a brief statement reaffirming the Quad's importance, including a reference to India hosting the next summit, offers some reassurance.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com