Donald Trump's exaggerated opinion of his dealmaking capacity can get him into trouble, observes R Sriram.
The danger this time is that the overestimation of his deal making capabilities and the belief that they somehow can swing everything their way will lead the Trump team into uncharted and dangerous waters where concessions done without much thought will trouble for America later.
Donald J Trump, a man reviled, hated, ridiculed, and hounded out of office as a pariah four years ago, has taken oath as America's 47th president.
Just four years ago, as a bitter winter chill swept Washington DC, progressive, liberal elite, lawmakers, and the diplomatic corps gathered to witness and salute liberal progressivism's triumphal ascendancy after 4 years of chaos and discord.
As Joe Biden took the oath of office as the 46th president with the country's first ever black, female vice-president Kamala Harris standing next to him, the progressive, liberal elite could have been forgiven for thinking that they had finally seen the last of Donald J Trump on the national stage.
A few hours before the oath ceremony on January 20, 2021 Trump boarded Air Force One and departed for Mar-a-Lago, Florida, to lick his wounds after a bitter, nasty, debilitating, and failed re-election campaign culminated in the horror and calamity of the January 6th events outside the US Capitol.
Whether it was an insurrection, riot or just a peaceful protest, depending upon which side of the political aisle you sit, it was not abnormal to think then that the Donald's political career was over.
Finished, kaput, destroyed; scattered to the winds like one of the Florida seashore homes after a ferocious Atlantic storm.
The fact that he is back as president -- and only the second in American history after Grover Cleveland in 1885 and 1893 -- is a testament to his tenacity, courage, fighting spirit and determination.
It is also a sad commentary on the ineptitude and arrogance of the Democratic party and the Joe Biden presidency who threw every rule book out of the window in their desperation to banish him from political life.
Nothing, literally, nothing went right for the Democrats last year in the run up to the most important election of this millennium so far.
Their sinister plan of shackling and reversing Trump's momentum through manufactured court cases, imploded in their faces very quickly as the public rallied to the 45th president's defence.
Their attempts to create a fear psychosis among women by highlight abortion travails boomeranged; identity politics based on minority, women and LGBTQ issues was soundly rejected.
The biggest loser, apart from Kamala Harris, whose inexperience and ineptitude were thoroughly exposed, was Barack Obama.
Obama's acolytes and supporters were at the heart of the Biden administration, his campaign and then Kamala Harris campaign.
His irritating and condescending appeal to black male Americans to vote for Harris fell flat with hordes of them shifting their vote to Trump.
The 44th president was present at the inauguration on Monday. His fellow Democrat predecessor Bill Clinton was also there with his wife Hillary Clinton, whose dispiriting and lacklustre 2016 campaign opened the doors wide for Trump to barge in. They were surrounded by a sea of beaming, delirious Republicans, and their supporters.
The scene is the exact opposite of inauguration day 2009 when Obama made history as America's first every black President. Republicans were downcast and depressed; Democrats, overjoyed and ebullient.
The Democrats thought the tides of history would lift their boats and carry them to the sunny lands of progressive and liberal utopia.
It took less than a decade for the first major cracks to appear on that elaborate façade in the form of Trump's first victory and Brexit.
Last November's defeat shattered the illusion of an eternal, progressive world order completely.
The rebuilding will happen but will take time. For the Democrats, identifying a national level leader to unify the party is less important.
It is more important to digest the learnings from the defeat, the mistakes, the wrong turns, the bad policy choices and chalk out a programme that embraces American voters' real concerns.
The road is long and hard, but it is also naive to think that Trump has an easier job. Most presidents take office amidst trying, exacting circumstances and DJT is no exception.
Think Ronald Reagan, who assumed office amidst tepid economic growth, high interest rates, and inflation not to mention foreign policy challenges like an assertive Soviet Union; Obama with GFC impact still hitting Americans hard and Joe Biden when America and the world was still in the grip of Covid.
Only Bill Clinton and George W Bush can be said to have faced less troublesome circumstances at the start of their presidency.
But what's different this time is the global adulation, excitement and anticipation of a Trump presidency that is overshadowing debate about the various foreign policy dangers and domestic complications that the new administration must deal with.
Friends and foes all over the world will be making a beeline to 1600, Pennsylvania Avenue. The so-called foes, China, Russia, want to be on his good side, while his friends want to assuage irritants that have crept into their relationship; businesses, especially the big ones, have made dramatic U-turns. Just look at what Meta, Amazon have done.
Democrat senators and politicians, at least the practical ones, have not only supported GOP legislation like the Lakan Riley Act but are also speaking in favour of Trump. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Ruben Gallego of Arizona are good examples.
From all appearances, Trump is starting his presidency with a bang, surrounded by loads of goodwill, good wishes and hopes, something that was unthinkable in 2016. But the big question, however, and which few are asking, is this: Will this adulation and appreciation in any way change Trump's philosophy and his willingness to push forward with sweeping, radical changes both at home and abroad? We know that Trump loves praise and adulation.
Which politician doesn't? But Trump's position is a little unique in the sense that he is about to take charge of the biggest and most badass job in the world.
The commander-in-chief of the world's biggest military with an astonishing and devastating arsenal of weapons and steward of the world's biggest and most dynamic economy.
This praise and unexpectedly high hopes for the Trump presidency comes in the immediate aftermath of a nasty, long, brutal campaign where he was subjected to utmost abuse and was almost locked away on bogus or trumped up charges.
Trump is also a big believer in his own ability to fix things. He talks a lot about it in the Art of the Deal and he is forever fond of saying that bad things like the Russia Ukraine war would have never happened under his watch.
Now, you can dismiss it as hyperbole except that Trump himself and his supporters, staff believe in it strongly.
The question that arises now is this? Will his penchant for dealmaking and his staunch belief in the superiority of his skills induce Trump to wade into uncharted waters and make a muddle of things.
Will it make him offer concessions that are either not required and which when offered will make America's adversaries stronger?
It is not hard to envisage such a scenario given Trump's latest volley on TikTok.
Now, there is a lot of confusion but there is no peremptory arbitrary, ban on TikTok. The legislation Congress passed last year specifically gave Bytedance, TikTok's owner, a way out through a sale to a US controlled entity. It's a ban only if Bytedance refuses to sell along with the software and the algorithm.
Twenty-four hours after TikTok went dark in the US just 12 hours before his inauguration, Trump has issued a statement saying that he will sign an executive order extending the time given to Bytedance to conclude a sale by 90 days.
He has also talked about a joint venture with Chinese with the US entities in the country owning 50% though it is not clear what he means.
Predictably, this has led to calls of a sellout on social media. It has also drawn the ire of Tom Cotton, Arkansas senator and chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Mr Cotton says there is no need for any extension as TikTok was given enough time and that Bytedance 'must agree to a sale that satisfies the law's qualified divestiture requirements by severing all ties between TikTok and Communist China.'
Late on Sunday, CNN also reported quoting Mike Waltz, the incoming national security advisor, that the Trump team is not ruling out continued Chinese ownership of TikTok coupled with firewalls to protect American data.
Well, well, well!
There are 3 ways of examining the latest turn of events. One, Trump is genuinely trying to strike a compromise between national security concerns and millions of young Americans and entrepreneurs who rely on TikTok; second, he wants to give the Chinese more time and possibly help them save face; third, this is a completely foolish, thoughtless plunge by Trump into something that is best avoided for the time being and which can only prolong his problems and lead to calls of a sell-out to Chinese.
The TikTok ban is not the topmost priority of Americans now. Immigration, cost of living, crime are. TikTok is a side issue, not something connected with the everyday struggle of American citizens.
Surely, its resolution could have been left to another day after Trump and his team have settled down and had the chance to discuss it at length.
Also, what does the Trump team mean by allowing Chinese to retain control? Doesn't that violate the law Congress passed last year? That was explicit in stating that TikTok can continue in America only after divestiture by Bytedance and the snapping of ties with the Chinese Communist party.
This deal proposed by Trump team is not in accordance with that law. It will be subject to legal challenges and is going to drag on for many months.
Congress will also have to pass a new law over-riding the earlier one to allow what the Trump team has in mind.
All this at a time when Trump's domestic agenda is filled with contentious issues such as the debt limit raise, extension of tax cuts, border security and immigration control.
I don't how the Trump team concluded that it makes sense to have another controversial issue thrown into the mixture.
During Trump's first term, his herculean efforts at deal making were rewarded handsomely. The Abraham Accords negotiated in 2019 and signed in 2020 changed the face of the Middle East.
It also made Saudi Arabia willing to consider relations with Israel, something unthinkable just 10 years ago. Trump's domestic agenda also benefitted from his deal making expertise.
The tax cuts, which took effect in 2018, contributed immensely to GDP growth and boosted manufacturing jobs that year.
He had his failures as well such as the failed peace with North Korea, but no one will grudge him that.
The danger this time is that the overestimation of his deal making capabilities and the belief that they somehow can swing everything their way will lead the Trump team into uncharted and dangerous waters where concessions done without much thought will trouble for America later.
For instance: What if China offers up some big trade concessions in exchange for continued control over TikTok? Or in exchange for exporting EVs into America at lower duties?
What if Russia were to get sanctions lifted in return for an agreement to withdraw from some Ukraine areas which it has no intention of honouring.
These are all real dangers. The Trump world is now in a celebratory mood and may not pay much attention. But at some point, sane voices either in the WH or the senate or State Department will have to prevail over the 47th president and prevent him from deal making excesses.
Donald Trump entered the White House in January 2017 heavily underestimated by everyone, pundit, and layman. He ended up overdelivering. It will be a great irony indeed if he under delivered in his second term having assumed office with so much good will.
R Sriram is a former Associate Editor, Economic Times. https://rsriram.substack.com/
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff.com
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