Mayawati's failure to contest the election as also her not organising large election rallies, as she once did, have led political pundits to conclude, rightly or wrongly, that she is 'out of the race', Sunil Gatade and Venkatesh Kesari point out.
One thing is clear for those watching the electoral scene in Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati is a much much mellowed leader.
The leader who once boasted that she is a far bigger leader than Sonia Gandhi, now looks a pale shadow of her former self.
She looks a tired general. Something seems to be worrying her.
This is despite the fact that part of her vote bank is still intact.
Behenji, as the Bahujan Samaj Party supremo is called by her supporters, is still the guiding light of this Dalit vote.
Among leaders in UP, she is the one politician who can transfer her vote easily unlike any other party leader.
Still, she is at the crossroads not knowing what to do.
One is bound to think that something is amiss if a leader is not fighting a key election with all her might.
At the same time, it is a fact that the devaluation of the 66-year-old BSP leader has been going on unabated since Narendra Damodardas Modi became prime minister over seven years ago.
Rightly or wrongly, the BSP supremo, who was Uttar Pradesh chief minister till 2007, is now being looked more as an associate of the ruling BJP than the leader of an independent party.
Despite a keen tussle in UP, Behenji looks not at all in the reckoning for power.
Home Minister Amit Anilchandra Shah's praise of her has led to unkind talk in political circles, of the BSP and Mayawati being the BJP's B team.
Some even claim that the BJP, desperate to hold onto power in the key state, could even make the BSP supremo chief minister if the ground shakes under its feet.
After four of the seven rounds of the assembly election, UP Chief Minister Yogi Aditynath does not look to be the 'damdar' leader as was projected by the BJP's spin doctors. He appears to have lost steam and his bete noire, the Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav, is drawing huge crowds.
"If the BJP wins UP in such a grim battle, it would be because of Modi and if it loses, it would be because of Yogi," an Opposition leader remarks at a time when reports from Gorakhpur say that even in Yogi's assembly constituency, there are hardly any posters of him.
At such a time, the BJP knows the importance of Mayawati and her ability to transfer votes to other parties if need be.
Dalits constitute over 20 percent of UP's population and the BJP very well knows how much sway she has on a sizable population among Dalits.
The general belief is that Mayawati and the BSP are set to emerge a distant third when the votes are counted on March 10.
Mayawati's failure to contest the election as also her not organising large election rallies, as she once did, have led political pundits to conclude, rightly or wrongly, that she is 'out of the race'.
One development being spoken about is that a section of younger Dalits are drawn towards the Congress.
These younger Dalits feel the BJP's policies to privatise the public sector means there would be no reservations and therefore no employment opportunities for them.
March 10 will reveal if this disillusionment among younger Dalits with the BSP is for real. If it rings true, then it will sound an alarm signal to Mayawati and her party.
After all, the BSP was carved out by its founder Kanshi Ram by weaning away Dalits from the Congress.
The BSP leadership has been mortally afraid that the Dalits could go back to the Congress, leaving it high and dry. That is why they refrain from tie-ups with the grand old party.
Though she dubs both the Congress and BJP as 'saapnath' and 'naagnath, Mayawati has kept her party away from the Congress as far as possible.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
