Is Imran Khan's PTI Party Imploding?

These are obviously not 'organic' desertions but brought about under intense military pressure, post 9/5 arrests.
It seemed as if the party was being dismantled the same way it was brought into power!, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W, India's external intelligence agency.

Defence Minister Khwaja Asif's statements to media that the Pakistan Democratic Movement government may be contemplating to ban Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf party after the May 9, 2023 violence by its cadres, have intensified speculation about its imminent implosion and possible disqualification of its members and leader before the next general elections.

Dozens of PTI leaders have resigned after the May 9 protests including former ministers Shireen Mazari and Fawad Chaudry, who said they were taking a break from politics.

'Electables' earlier herded into the party at the Pakistan army's nod -- the likes of Faiz Ullah Kamoka, Chaudhry Wajahat Hussain, Aftab Siddiqui, Dost Muhammad Mazari, Hisham Inamullah Khan, Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, Usman Khan Tarakai, Mahmood Moulvi needed no second urging to desert the sinking ship.

Prominent ex-military scion Asad Umar (son of the late General Umar of 1971 purges notoriety) announced he was quitting as secretary general though not leaving the party (yet).

These were obviously not 'organic' desertions but brought about under intense military pressure, post 9/5 arrests. It seemed as if the party was being dismantled the same way it was brought into power!

Founded in April 1996 the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Pakistan Movement for Justice) sought 'a Third Way', aiming to create a welfare State, 'Riyasat e Madina', where the State would be responsible for education, health and employability of citizens.

It would promote freedom of thought, abolish personal income tax and dismantle religious discrimination.

It promised to crack down on police brutality, restructure the civil service, reform the electoral system, allow for a truly independent judiciary and decentralize state power.

The PTI claimed to be Pakistan's only non-family party in mainstream politics. It had limited initial success, failing to win a single seat in the 1997 and 2002 general elections.

Only Imran Khan himself was able to win a seat in 2002.

It was only from 2011 onwards, as distaste of Pakistan's powerful military establishment and the higher judiciary intensified against the Zardaris and Sharifs, that Imran Khan and his PTI emerged as a possible option for 'engineering' a 'King's Party' into power.

The PTI boycotted the 2008 election, but in the 2013 elections it received over 7.5 million votes, making it second in terms of the number of votes and third in the number of seats won (35).

Its prolonged sit-ins in 2014-w015 had the blessings of ISI spy-masters, Lieutenant Generals Shuja Pasha and Zahir ul Islam.

Then army chief General Raheel Sharif barely held the partiality scales in balance.

The Panama taints emerged then, enabling the kudiciary to swing into action, disqualifying Nawaz Sharif.

In the 2018 elections, the army's 'hybrid construct' came into full force with the declaration of results being made impervious to poll observers at the last minute.

The PTI came to power with 149 seats (out of 272) in the national assembly.

Of course, Imran emerged as the master of 'U-turns' on policy, expressing support at one stage for both the Afghan Taliban and the Tehrik e Taliban.

He seldom hesitated to criticise the 'war on terror' or America's policy and approach on ties with Pakistan.

Despite being the army's creation, Imran Khan talked guardedly about civilian control of Pakistan's military, suggesting that the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) should report directly to the PM.

Imran also pledged to resign should any terrorism take place from Pakistani soil.

He would prevaricate from these positions whenever politically expedient.

Article 17(2) of Pakistan's 1973 constitution safeguards the right to form political parties.

The federal government can ban a party if it has reason to believe it is 'operating in a manner prejudicial to the sovereignty and integrity of Pakistan'.

Section 15 of the Political Parties Order, 2002 (PPO) further adds the 'foreign aided' accusation.

The government is required to formalise this step through a gazette notification, which has to be referred to the supreme court within 15 days for a final decision.

Under Section 16 of the PPO, members of the banned party would stand disqualified as legislators for the rest of their terms, and prevented from contesting elections, for four years thereafter.

It may be difficult to evolve consensus among allies of the Pakistan Democratic Movement government for banning the PTI.

The supreme court, under Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial may not countenance such a move.

Nevertheless, actions against those of its functionaries found to have direct involvement in instigating the May 9 violence are likely to continue under the Maintenance of Public Ordinance, 1960 or the Army Act, 1952.

There is talk of a new faction of erstwhile PTI politicians emerging under the umbrella of Jehangir Tareen, the sugar baron cum industrialist who was instrumental in providing a bridge to Imran in 2017-2018.

He fell out with Imran later and distanced himself on health grounds. He is still on a good wicket with the military establishment.

This 'rump' may not enjoy mass popularity in comparison to Imran Khan, but it could serve the purpose of keeping the elections credible, whenever they are held.

Describing these latest events as threats to his party men 'at the point of the gun', an increasingly isolated Imran indicated (May 24), he was ready to constitute a 10 -member committee (without naming any members) to hold dialogue with the government, 'for the sake of democracy and Pakistan'.

Knowing well that his personal charisma has not ebbed, this could be part of Imran's new 'minus one' strategy, to step back and avoid future disqualification and arrest.

Alas, this strategy hinges on the fast approaching September '23 deadline, if not earlier as rumours of resignations are resurgent, which will see his benefactors, President Arif Alvi and Chief Justice Bandial ride into the sunset.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com