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The BJP may win more seats in the February 5 assembly election, but not enough to trump AAP, notes Ramesh Menon.
Elections to the Delhi assembly on February 5 are keenly watched as observers wonder if Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party will again trounce the Bharatiya Janata Party despite its muscle, ground workers and money power.
It will likely ride back to power for the third time in a row. Not bad for a party that is only 13 years old.
Delhi is a small state and should not bother the BJP as it sends just seven MPs to Parliament. But the Delhi results seriously worries the national party.
Delhi is a prestigious crown to wear.
The BJP also wants to further the idea of how, under Narendra Modi's leadership, the BJP is invincible.
The BJP has not been in power in Delhi for the last 27 years.
It promises 'parivartan' (change) if voted to power, but it is too weak a slogan to get votes in the complicated political environment in the capital.
Its central plank is attacking Kejriwal for the lavish expenditure on renovating a PWD bungalow allotted to him when he became chief minister. Modi is leading the attack, hoping it would destroy Kejriwal's commoner image.
The fight is clearly between AAP and the BJP, as the Congress is not a factor.
The Congress has not won a single seat in the last two assembly elections, and its vote share has plummeted to around 4 per cent. It stands no chance to make any dent.
Obviously, Kejriwal decided not to go into an alliance with the Congress despite being a part of the INDIA grouping. It makes sense, as the AAP vote share came from erstwhile Congress supporters.
After Sheila Dikshit, the Congress has not found a charismatic leader who can woo back its traditional voters.
Former AAP leader and political commentator Ashutosh told me that the AAP clearly had an edge in Delhi as the BJP had failed to capitalise on the anti-incumbency factor.
The central government had made serious corruption charges against Kejriwal. Though nothing has been proven yet, the BJP hopes some of the allegations will sway voters as AAP came to power on an anti-corruption platform in 2013 and again in 2015 and 2020.
Local issues dominate as national agendas do not catch the imagination of the electorate in the capital. While Delhi votes for the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, it has chosen to opt for AAP in the assembly elections.
The BJP has increased its vote share in election after election, but it was nowhere close to the sweep that AAP managed to woo voters.
Delhi is choking today due to pollution, with India's worst air quality index. It is one of the most polluted cities in the world.
Its roads are clogged with traffic. Many areas are dotted with garbage or are just dirty and do not resemble a national capital.
However, no party talks about real issues like infrastructure and quality of life. Studies have shown that those who live in Delhi will have a shorter life span as they breathe toxic air.
This time, Kejriwal has again offered freebies like cash doles of Rs 2,100 to women under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Salman Yojana. To avail of these, they have to be registered voters in Delhi. In the last few weeks, there has been an avalanche of over five lakh applications to the Election Commission of India for new voter registrations.
Kejriwal has also offered free medical facilities for those over 60. There are 24,44,320 senior citizens who are voters in Delhi.
Auto drivers have been promised insurance coverage of Rs 10 lakh.
The freebie madness continues in every election now, irrespective of which party rules. No politician is talking about how it will dent and paralyse the economy as the number of freebies increases with every election.
Kejriwal, who started distributing freebies a decade ago, promised 200 units of free electricity and 20,000 litres of water every month, even to tenants.
He announced that a comprehensive plan would be implemented after the elections to ensure these new benefits reach tenants. He particularly mentioned the Purvanchali population as a sizeable number of people who work in Delhi as labourers and other skilled workers.
The term Purvanchalis refers to those from East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and it is estimated that they form a sixth of Delhi's population and can be a deciding factor in around 20 of the 70 seats.
Kejriwal has asked Modi to give students concessions on metro fares. If Modi agrees, Kejriwal will take the credit and if he does not respond, the BJP will get the rap.
AAP leader Jasmine Shah, in his new book, The Delhi Model: A Bold New Road Map to Building a Developed India, said that a household sample survey among 70 per cent of Delhi's households receiving electricity subsidies showed that they stood to save an average of Rs 2,464 per month.
AAP has a fighting chance of winning as it has done considerable work with schools and health services. Delhi schools are among the best government schools in India.
The 500-odd mohalla clinics the party started have helped millions of poor people get free healthcare.
However, the anti-corruption bureau has said fake cases were detected in some of them and is probing it.
The BJP has mounted an aggressive campaign, as it always does.
The Modi government put Kejriwal in jail along with then deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia but has not been able to prove charges, though it has been working on it for over a year. MP Sanjay Singh in an excise policy scam and Health Minister Satyendar Jain accused of money laundering, were also jailed. All are now out on bail.
Kejriwal is now using the jail term he was subjected to to gain sympathy and underline that they were trumped-up charges. He also emphasises at election rallies how powers have been taken away from him and vested in the central government to ensure that his decisions are not carried out by the lieutenang governor, who has an upper hand and is appointed by the central government.
In the 2022 Delhi municipal elections, AAP won 42.05 per cent of the votes, winning 134 seats and clinching power as the BJP won 104 seats, gaining 39.09 per cent of the votes. The Congress won only nine seats!
In every election in the last ten years, the Congress in Delhi has lost its vote share to AAP and the BJP.
In the 2020 assembly election, AAP won 62 seats in Delhi, while BJP won just eight.
This time, political analysts like Dr Sajjan Kumar say that the BJP may win more seats but not enough to trump AAP.
Though none of the corruption charges have been proved, the jailing of AAP leaders has dented the image that the AAP built after it rode into power in one of the most momentous elections in 2013.
Many youngsters and activists had joined the party, then as AAP leaders like Kejriwal, Kiran Bedi, Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Bhushan, Ashutosh, Kumar Vishwas and others spearheaded the India Against Corruption movement. There was a new hope, a new dream. Volunteers had come to Delhi from various parts of the country and even abroad to campaign.
It is another story that most of these leaders are no more with AAP as they moved away due to Kejriwal's inability to carry them along, listen to them, and not make ideological compromises.
In its previous two governments, AAP has done significant work regarding quality education in schools and health services.
Those who have benefitted from these two swear they would back AAP as they do not see any other party interested in these two crucial areas.
Then, there are freebies that have benefitted a large number and see nothing wrong in supporting a party that looks at the welfare of people with low incomes.
AAP sees its Delhi Model as its biggest asset.
The BJP has been unable to offer something better.
Neither the BJP nor Congress has a prominent leader like Kejriwal.
The Centre's confrontation with the Kejriwal government for the last decade can actually work in his favour as he will be seen as a victim as his schemes and decisions were not allowed to smoothly go through, affecting governance. It has also helped him emerge as one political leader who can defy Modi and survive.
This will not be an easy election, given the way the BJP is pulling out all stops to win.
No wonder AAP has roped in the Indian Political Action Committee, commonly known as I-PAC funded by well-known poll strategist Prashant Kishor, who worked with Modi and the BJP during the 2014 elections.
AAP has stepped up its door-to-door campaign and introduced initiatives like Rewdi par Charcha to underline all its achievements and future plans to strengthen its grassroots movement.
AAP will need to woo around 30 per cent of upper caste voters, as many of them have jumped onto the BJP bandwagon.
According to a post-poll survey of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, a research institute for social sciences and humanities, 29 per cent of AAP's upper caste voters moved into the BJP fold at the 2024 Lok Sabha poll.
AAP will have to woo its traditional Dalit and Muslim voters who supported it in the last ten years as some have moved to the BJP fold.
All communities and groups have swing voters, and AAP must get its votes to triumph in an aggressively contested prestige election.
In a bid to neutralise the freebies offered by AAP, the BJP, in its second manifesto, offered numerous incentives to get voted to power:
Some of them are:
* Free education to needy students from kindergarten to post-graduation in government-run institutions.
* Domestic workers get Rs 10 lakh life insurance coverage and paid maternity leave for six months.
* Auto and taxi drivers are to get Rs 10 lakh life insurance coverage and Rs 5 lakh accident insurance coverage. Scholarship for their children's education.
* Aspirants are preparing for competitive exams to get a one-time aid of Rs 15,000.
* Scheduled caste students in ITIs, skill centres and polytechnics to get a monthly scholarship of Rs 1,000.
*Street vendors to get loans under the PM SVANidhi scheme.
Earlier, in its first manifesto, it offered Rs 2,500 a month to women under the Mahila Samriddhi Yojana, LPG cylinders at Rs 500, free cylinders on Holi and Diwali, free treatment up to Rs 10 lakh under the Ayushman Bharat scheme for Delhi residents, and monthly pensions of Rs. 2,500 to those aged 60 to 70 and Rs 3,000 to those over 70.
Ramesh Menon, award-winning journalist, educator, documentary filmmaker and corporate trainer, is the author of Modi Demystified: The Making Of A Prime Minister.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com