Putin's North Korea Gamble

Russia's unprecedented rapprochement with North Korea has raised concerns about the re-emergence of a Russia-China-North Korea alliance which could increase the probability of conflict on the Korean Peninsula, explains Dr Rajaram Panda.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea on June 18-19, 2024, his first in 24 years, and the signing of a new treaty explicitly displayin Russia's formalised backing of the Kim Jong Un regime, raises concerns about the escalation of military cooperation and its impact on regional stability.

This visit to North Korea came after July 2000. At that time, Putin was the first Russian leader to visit the country and met with Kim's father, Kim Jong Il.

This also marked the third time that Kim Jong Un and Putin met in person, following the North Korea-Russia summit in Vladivostok in April 2019 and another summit at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in September 2023.

Putin was accompanied on his trip by Defence Minister Andrei Beluosov, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko and others.

The North Korean party included Premier Kim Tok Hun, Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea Pak Jong Hun and Secretary of the Central Committee of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party Jo Yong Won.

The international security situation, economy, energy, transportation and agricultural cooperation were on top of the agenda list for the summit talks.

In a dramatic upgrade of ties, Putin and Kim signed a 'strategic partnership treaty' on June 18 that included a mutual defence pledge that formalised the alliance.

The comprehensive partnership agreement provides, among other things, for mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to the agreement.

Earlier on that day Putin had mentioned that the two nations had prepared a document that would 'form the basis' of their relations for years to come.

But the stunning revelation that it included what amounted to a mutual defence pact sent shock waves through Asia.

The agreement came about two hours after the two leaders began their talks at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, in the heart of the North Korean capital.

Kim expressed 'full support' for Russia in its war on Ukraine and promised to strengthen strategic cooperation with Moscow during the summit.

Kim said North Korea-Russia relations are 'entering a new period of prosperity'.

Following the summit, Putin did not rule out military-technical cooperation with North Korea. This implied mutual assistance in case of aggression against either side.

From his side, Kim extended full support and solidarity with the Russian government, army and people in conducting the special military operation in Ukraine with a view to protecting sovereignty, security interests and territorial integrity.

Putin expressed his gratitude for North Korea's support, saying that the new 'fundamental document' shall serve as a foundation for strengthened ties between Pyongyang and Moscow.

On the eve of his visit, Putin contributed an article to the North's Rodong Sinmum, newspaper stating that Russia and North Korea will develop alternative systems for trade and mutual settlements not strained by Western countries, and jointly oppose their 'illegitimate' restrictive measures.

Putin's visit was a reciprocal one following Kim's week-long trip to Russia nine months ago.

There is an opinion that Putin's visit came in a rather hurried manner.

But Putin's strained ties with the West following Russia's military operation in Ukraine precipitated the visit.

But the concerns in the region are rising that Putin and Kim inked a new military treaty close to the level of the past alliance treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union, which included a clause on automatic military intervention in contingencies.

Security observers were quick to decipher whether the new comprehensive strategic partnership had revived the automatic military intervention clause that was included in a 1961 treaty between North Korea and the former Soviet Union.

The treaty -- and the military intervention clause -- was scrapped in 1996.

Amid growing military cooperation between Russia and North, eyes are also fixed on how far Russia would go in the transfer of advanced nuclear and missile technologies.

Both Putin and Kim also focused heavily on expanding economic cooperation.

By signing the new Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, North Korea and Russia made a show of deepening their military cooperation by asserting mutual defence commitments.

In the process, it created new problems for their shared partner Beijing.

While China has not publicly revealed its thoughts on the treaty, it is unlikely to welcome the security pledge and other clauses that embrace cooperation in areas like nuclear energy.

China could be wary of the new high in Russia-North Korea security deal but certainly not alarmed.

Beijing is aware that the Russia-Pyongyang mutual defence treaty could encourage US military presence, but it also knows that it has leverage over Moscow and Pyongyang.

Interestingly, during Putin's visit to North Korea, South Korea held the inaugural 2+2 defence dialogue with China.

Some analysts believe that this could be part of China's efforts to distance it from the growing Pyongyang-Moscow military ties.

Another related question that begs an answer is how South Korea is going to craft its policy as the threat perception would inevitably increase.

How should South Korea navigate through the diplomatic complexities?

Putin, before his trip to North Korea, said that he 'highly appreciates South Korea's position not to directly supply weapons to Ukraine, and that Moscow is ready to restore relations with Seoul.'

That is an over-simplification. There are already reports that South Korea is already planning to help Ukraine with weapons in its war against Russia.

There are two aspects to this development that need to be factored in regional security dynamics.

At one level, America's alliance-building process in the Indo-Pacific is gaining momentum.

At another level, China and Russia are coordinating their efforts to mount 'dual opposition' to the West's 'dual deterrence'.

Notwithstanding Beijing's wariness on the Russia-North Korea recent security deal, can China-Russia understanding be seen as the advent of a new bipolarity? This is an issue that security analysts need to ponder about and implications dissected.

Russia's unprecedented rapprochement with North Korea has raised concerns about the re-emergence of a trilateral Russia-China-North Korea alliance which could increase the probability of conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

One thing that has transpired that the stakes have never been higher to prevent provocations that could turn into armed clashes.

The most worrying fact is the 'mutual assistance' clause in the security treaty, which can be invoked when convenient.

The level of military cooperation has implications with global repercussions.

In the past there is evidence that North Korea provided Russia with rockets and artillery shells which Moscow has used in attacks on Ukraine.

During the summit, it transpired that the treaty provides for 'mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties'.

This wording raises concerns in the West, with media outlets reporting that the agreement is equivalent to a mutual defence pact.

The new mutual assistance provision provides justification for Pyongyang to provide soldiers, workers or technicians to help Moscow in Ukraine if Kyiv's actions are framed as aggression against Russia.

On the other hand, the provision could also result in Russian military support for North Korea in the case of military aggression by the United States or South Korea.

However, there are caveats. This is because the details surrounding the agreement remai unclear as to what measures could be included as mutual assistance or what could be identified as aggression.

A full-blown defence treaty between the two would place unwanted pressure on Moscow.

Also, Russia would not want to be dragged into a hot war in Korea, especially given Putin's military ambitions in Europe.

In order not to inflame passion and trigger a conflict, it might be desirable for both to focus more on increasing exchanges in other fields such as tourism, education and the economy.

While North Korea is likely to export artillery shells and other munitions to Russia for its war in Ukraine, Moscow might consider allowing North Korean workers into Russia, despite sanctions forbid such a measure.

What does North Korea get in return from Russia? North Korea is likely to receive economic assistance, food aid, oil and other benefits from Moscow.

Russia could also transfer sensitive military technologies that could help Pyongyang further advance its satellite, submarine and even nuclear weapons programmes.

Deepening economic cooperation between the two sides can also be expected.

As it transpires, the situation is too messy.

With both Russia and North Korea isolated from the international community, the Moscow-Pyongyang partnership is likely to grow strong as both would like to curb Washington's military activity in the region, particularly its growing trilateral military cooperation with Japan and South Korea.

For now, the instability and uncertainty shall continue for some time until countries concerned craft their policies clearly that would be for larger interests for the region.

Dr Rajaram Panda is a former senior fellow at the Nehru Memorial Museum and Library, New Delhi.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com