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Pakistan may want to undertake a 'false flag' operation in J&K to divert attention from the situation in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but infiltrating one SSG battalion into J&K and having two SSG battalions waiting to follow suit means war, which Pakistan cannot afford in its current economic crisis, notes Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd).
July has seen a major spurt in terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, especially in the Jammu region.
J&K is actually facing low intensity conflict coupled with jihad with India in the crosshairs of US and China-supported Pakistan, as well as regional and international terrorist organisations.
Pakistan's ISI, its proxies in Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Hizbul Mujahideen (HuM) and their front organisations in J&K have become more active.
Recent terrorist incidents are both in the north as well as south of the Pir Panjal range.
Terrorists are using sophisticated weapons abandoned by the US in Afghanistan and Chinese communication equipment having encryption which is difficult to intercept.
The systemic Talibanisation of Pakistan will naturally have a spillover into India.
The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Hafiz Gul Bahadur have been openly calling for Ghazwa-e-Hind.
Both these terrorist organisations are linked with the Taliban, al-Qaeda and ISIS; and all of them subscribe to a Global Islamist Emirate.
Intelligence inputs suggest that Turkish mercenaries (belonging to Turkish SADAT) who have come to Pakistan are readying to attack J&K.
There is a possibility of Azerbaijan also sending mercenaries to Pakistan for attacking J&K.
The area south of the Pir Panjal range has always been prone to terrorist activity, especially the densely forested areas with thick undergrowth.
Moving the Rashtriya Rifles to eastern Ladakh did dilute the counter-insurgency grid whether we admit it or not.
Sham Sher Khan, the so-called deputy supreme commander of HuM, said in a recent interview to the media that they (terrorists) have local civilian support in J&K, which includes interior areas as well as in the Jammu region where locals are unhappy with outsiders being settled.
The J&K lieutenant governor has sacked four more government staffers, including two cops, as per newspaper reports.
The ISI has successfully infiltrated the civil administration and the J&K police. The director general of police J&K said recently that political parties in J&K are assisting infiltration but there is nothing new in this.
Did the counter-infiltrating grid slacken amid the hype that demonetisation would bring terrorism to an end and more recently that normalisation has been achieved in J&K?
Based on inputs from Amjad Ayub Mirza of July 27, 2024, the Dailyhunt Web site published an article to say that Major General Adil Rahman, GOC of the Pakistan army's Special Service Group, is orchestrating attacks in the Jammu region; one SSG battalion is said to have infiltrated at least 600 commandos in the Kupwara region and elsewhere; local jihadi sleeper cells are active and assisting SSG operations; Lieutenant Colonel Shahid Saleem Janjua is in Jammu commanding the attacks; the SSG focus is to attack Indian Army's 15 Corps; two more SSG battalions are ready to enter India.
The SSG has had a dismal record during the 1965 and 1971 wars with India.
During the Kargil conflict, one SSG officer (Captain Malik), alongwith 10 of his men, were surprised in broad daylight and killed atop Point 5770 in the southern glacier by the Indian Army.
At the same time, the SSG has been operating in J&K; in conjunction with terrorists as border action teams or in small numbers to direct and participate in terrorist activities.
Pakistan may want to undertake a 'false flag' operation in J&K to divert attention from the situation in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but infiltrating one SSG battalion into J&K and having two SSG battalions waiting to follow suit means war, which Pakistan cannot afford in its current economic crisis, notwithstanding the financial assistance from China, $100 million aid coming from the US and the anticipated $7 billion bailout from the IMF.
Moreover, infiltrating one SSG battalion into J&K in the present environment appears far-fetched unless they have managed the art of being invisible or have dug a large enough 'undetected' tunnel across the LoC or international border.
The J&K DGP maintains that 70 to 80 terrorists are operating in J&K, including 30 to 40 South of the Pir Panjal range.
Amjad Ayub Mirza is a dubious character who some years back was in Delhi looking for funds and patronage.
According to Google, he is an activist from Pakistan occupied Kashmir but he is obviously not in Pakistan/PoK where he would have been skinned alive by now; given that journalists speaking against the establishment are being regularly killed in Pakistan. He is possibly based in the UK, funded by an unknown patron(s).
What then is the motive of Mirza's narrative or rather googly, one day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned Pakistan against sponsoring terrorism in J&K, while attending the commemoration ceremonies in Kargil?
One view is that Mirza wants India to attack Pakistan, more like the 'surgical strikes' of September 2016 or the Balakot standoff air attack carried out by India in February 2019.
Another view is this could be a prelude to a false flag attack in J&K.
In both situations, it would help the Indian government postpones the assembly elections in J&K, which the Supreme Court has ordered to be conducted by September 2024, and which the ruling party doesn't appear keen on.
Besides, presence of an SSG battalion itself is sufficient to postpone elections citing anticipated disruptions.
Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SC is a former Special Forces officer.
He is a third generation army officer and participated in the 1971 India-Pakistan War and in Operation Bluestar.
He commanded a Special Forces Battalion in Sri Lanka, a Brigade on the Siachen Glacier, a Division in Ladakh and a Strike Corps in the South Western Theatre.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com