 | « Back to article | Print this article |
In the event of the BJP's poor performance in the assembly polls this year and in early 2025, Modi's hold will get further weakened because he will no longer remain the invincible electoral persona tightly controlling the machine at his disposal, asserts Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
June 2 this year, was a day of furious excitement in New Delhi's corridors of power despite being Sunday.
The previous evening, Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to the capital city after 'meditating', often under the devotional glare of television cameras for two days at the Vivekananda Rock Memorial, Kanyakumari.
Barely 48 hours before the Election Commission of India was scheduled to start counting votes cast for the Lok Sabha elections and a few state assemblies that simultaneously went to the hustings, Union government officials knew this was not to be a lazy and relaxing day spent exchanging notes and expectations with family, friends and acquaintances.
Modi was as usual a charged up person on 'mission mode'. At his authoritative bidding, as many as 10 official meetings besides a couple of exchanges with party leaders on political matters were convened through the day.
Official meetings were aimed at underscoring that the response to every crisis, natural or otherwise, was anchored by Modi.
The 'never on a holiday' premier was to get back to work immediately after his so-termed spiritual sojourn and would kickstart with a low-down on the post-Cyclone Remal and chalking the roadmap ahead.
Subsequently, he reviewed the situation arising from a sharply contrasting climatic situation: The energy-sapping heatwave sweeping large parts of the country even as the voters braved it out in a schedule, inexplicably delayed by the Election Commission.
As planned, Modi oversaw preparations for World Environment Day celebrations, intended to be grander.
Predictably, an 'event' was scheduled for the prime minister on June 5 -- he planted a peepal tree at Delhi's Buddha Jayanti Park to launch the 'Ek Ped Maa Ke Naam' (A tree in memory of mother) campaign.
Recently, Union Environment, Forest, and Climate Change Minister Bhupender Yadav declared that 520 million saplings have been planted across the country as part of this campaign.
Yadav's declaration was eyebrow-raising in a country where reliable data is often not available.
Maybe, saplings were outsourced and the invoice provided a number.
But, getting back to the very-hectic-Sunday, the most important items listed on the prime ministerial hectic schedule were strategic sessions for outlining the new government's agenda for the first 100 days after assuming government for the third consecutive tenure.
Two days away from the results being declared, these meetings were scheduled as it was taken for granted that Modi would return to office with a thumping majority.
Almost every exit poll, the previous evening, forecast runaway victory -- differing solely on numbers but not on direction, or even magnitude, of the result.
Modi too, was certain of victory much before the Election Commission had even called the polls.
It would have been nothing short of unapologetic chutzpah that he directed creation of at least ten groups of senior officers as early as February.
Haughtily dubbed the Sectoral Group of Secretaries, each was handed out diverse subjects: Governance, infrastructure, security and economy etc to prepare plans for the first 100 days.
In election speeches, Modi publicised that he was preparing for the future -- not just 2047, but also the first 100 days of Tenure 3.0.
Such was the extent of Modi's confidence before he even began campaigning, that these meetings and their outcomes were reviewed at the highest levels of government.
Time, energy and resources were spent not just on what required immediate attention and action, but also on what for the breathless post-verdict narrative the leader 'desired'.
Unfortunately for Modi, the outcome on June 4 sat in a different direction.
It was not just the BJP which was reduced to 240 in Lok Sabha, but the combined strength of the National Democratic Alliance was below 300 -- more than 100 short of the 400-paar ambition which was almost considered an article of faith.
It was clear that on the morning of June 5, despite the scheduled planting of the sapling, Modi would have woken up with the gnawing thought that he had to tackle something that was unprecedented.
In 23 years since October 2001, when he was appointed Gujarat chief minister, Modi governed always with an emphatic legislative majority.
He never worked with others when under pressure and forged common agreement. Consensual politics was alien for him.
How would he cope with this gargantuan challenge of not having a majority of his own, like in 2014-2019 and again from 2019-2024?
In a few days, Modi completes 100 days in office.
It is not known how much of the bureaucratic extravaganza, planned since February, will be eventually rolled out and if Modi will be able to announce any of the 'significant or big decisions that he declared during the election campaign.
In speech after speech, Modi mentioned these and stated that a 100-days blueprint was already prepared and only formalities remained for announcement of 'bold' decisions.
It appeared that everybody else in the government was immaterial.
All that mattered was Modi, and his team of loyal bureaucrats. Ministers were mere pen-pushers.
Media reports have it that all Union ministers were briefed in late August on 73 key decisions taken in nine priority areas so far.
Despite opposition to the Unified Pension Scheme it would be projected as a major step of the government while glossing over the fact that most unions active among government employees rejected this and reiterated demand for restoring the Old Pension Scheme.
Instead of assessing the government's likely promotional handout, it is prudent to list not-so-big decisions which Modi and his government took, but had to roll back because of protests from within his own ranks and from the Opposition.
The Agniveer Scheme was listed as one of the prime factors behind the BJP's tepid electoral performance.
Since the government's return to office, various paramilitary forces and the Haryana government decided to make job reservations for ex-Agniveers.
The myth created by Modi's publicists that he cannot be coerced into decisions went out of the window with this.
Efforts to provide a sugar-coated pill after four years of defence service was over shone light on compulsions of a reworked political order.
Subsequent to this, it might have been initially Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath's decision to counter efforts of his party's national leadership to replace him, but the Supreme Court saved the Centre by prohibiting enforcement of notices -- issued by the UP, Uttarakhand, and Madhya Pradesh governments, directing eateries on the Kanwar Yatra route to display owners' and employees' names.
Had the court not ruled against the directives, the Centre would have had to act given that a few coalition partners opposed the move.
Recently, withdrawal of the advertisement for lateral entry entrants in government services, retracting the draft Broadcast Bill, the decision to refer the Waqf Properties Bill to the Joint Parliamentary Committee -- a first since 2014 -- are some of the important announcements of the Centre which were perforce taken back.
In addition, proposals on Indexation Benefits and enhanced Long-term Capital Gain Tax in the Union Budget had to be toned down after a chorus of protests.
Besides this long list of declared policies being taken back before completion of 100 days in office, Modi faces unprecedented challenge from four quarters.
The first is obviously an emboldened Opposition with the lead being taken by a virtual reincarnate Rahul Gandhi, once derogatorily given the moniker of Pappu by the BJP.
Such name calling has disappeared since late 2022 after it became evident that there was a new Rahul Gandhi on the move as part of the Bharat Jodo Yatra.
In the past three months, not only did the BJP have to take him seriously in Parliament, but he also spoke and acted with greater conviction.
The fact that he has not acted in a partisan manner, solely concerned with improving the prospects of his party, further raised his status.
After several decades, India finally has a Leader of the Opposition who speaks on behalf of the entire Opposition, not just his party.
Events starting with the offensive statements of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat, days after the verdict when he listed basic attributes of a 'true sevak', to the recently concluded Akhil Bharatiya Samnvay Baithak in Palakkad, Kerala, it is clear that Modi faces a bitter lot within his own ideological fraternity.
The elections results demonstrated that J P Nadda's exaggerated claims notwithstanding, the BJP still requires the support of the RSS and its network for election campaigns as well as other social movements.
Enlisting their wholehearted support is the second challenge that Modi stares at when he completes 100 days in office.
This is particularly important as several affiliates of the RSS have begun flagging issues agitating the demographic group they work with -- for instance, the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad on student matters and the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh on workers' issues.
Besides the RSS and its affiliates, Modi also faces a more aggressive set of colleagues within the party.
The most important among these is Yogi Adityanath who was never a Modi loyalist, but relations soured between them through the run-up to the parliamentary elections.
The UP chief minister has embarked on endearing himself to the extreme Hindu right wing constituency as Modi has to adopt a more centrist stance because of his diminished stature and electoral tally.
This has put a halt, at least temporarily, to the party's leadership to try forcing a change of leadership in the UP government.
The episode centred on Adityanath makes it amply clear that Modi's authority has declined within the party.
In the event of the party's poor performance in the assembly polls this year and in early 2025, Modi's hold will get further weakened because he will no longer remain the invincible electoral persona tightly controlling the machine at his disposal.
The fourth and the last challenge Modi faces is from the BJP's coalition partners.
What makes the problem acute is the fact that at 293, there are not many numbers to spare as the tally is barely 21 more than the magic mark in the Lok Sabha at 272.
Even though Modi was successful in securing the resignation of K C Tyagi as the Janata Dal-United spokesperson, after he spoke too harshly against Israel, the coalition partners have proved that they can be silent obstructionists.
Their hand was most evident in forcing the government to roll back some of its important policy initiatives.
Despite jubilation and celebration amid possibly a flurry of programmes, deep inside Modi will know that milestone of 100 days in his third tenure has not been marked as originally planned.
Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay is an author and journalist based in Delhi-NCR.
His latest book is The Demolition, The Verdict and The Temple: The Definitive Book on the Ram Mandir Project.
He is also the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com