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'If, as happened in Baramulla during the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the youth in the Valley get triggered enough to jump into the wider fray, the end result would be difficult to predict, especially as the state's post-August 5, 2019 political format remains substantially fragmented and foggy,' points out Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the veteran commentator on Kashmir affairs.
Finally, the uncertainty is over. The calendar for the assembly elections in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir is out.
Three phase polling is to be held on September 18, 25 and October 1, 2024. The results will be announced on October 4.
The last election to the erstwhile J&K legislative assembly was held in 2014 under vastly different circumstances.
Phased polling has been set after elaborate arranging security measures necessitated by the recent incidents of terror-linked violence in the relatively safer areas of Jammu region adjoining South Kashmir.
The Election Commission's formal announcement was preceded by a virtual midnight large-scale administrative and police reshuffle, giving rise to all sorts of apprehension in the minds of the principal contenders.
Mainly because till not so long ago a really free, fair election in this part of the country was commonly believed to be an unaffordable luxury.
Now that the electoral timetable is finally out it offers an opportune moment to take a quick look at the pre-election scenario and visualise the probable prospects of the main contenders in the fray.
Unless some unexpected development comes in the way, the voter turnout is expected to be as encouragingly good as it was in the Lok Sabha elections.
As it seems, the end product of the laborious exercise is more likely to look amorphous to most of its end users.
There are quite a few cogent reasons for this weird premonition.
Firstly, the voting pattern in the Lok Sabha elections, particularly that in the Baramulla constituency, has thrown up the probable prospect of considerably complicated pre-poll as well as post-poll configurations, more noticeably in the Kashmir Valley which accounts for 47 of the total 90 assembly seats versus Jammu region's 43 seats.
Secondly, the top-most leaders of the principal contenders in the fray in this Muslim-majority region, the National Conference's Omar Abdullah and the Peoples Democratic Party's Mehbooba Mufti have declared that they would not contest, ostensibly to protest the denial of full statehood.
Thirdly, following their humiliating defeat in the parliamentary elections, the BJP-aligned groups -- mainly the Altaf Bukhari-led Apni Party and the Sajad Lone-led Peoples Conference -- reportedly toyed with the idea of seeking the support of the banned (post-Syed Ali Shah Geelani) Jamaat e Islami whose leadership was said to be favourably inclined.
But the idea has apparently been dropped because of its patently toxic effects beyond elections.
Fourthly, whosoever eventually wins the race would be stepping into an unfamiliar terrain, feared to be strewn with hazardous political uncertainties.
That is because the new legislature of the truncated UT of J&K (after the separation of Ladakh region) would practically offer far less political breathing space for eventual performers compared to what they have been so far familiar with.
Besides, regional politics in Kashmir requires quite some tight rope walking.
That is because the political nuances in the country's only Muslim-majority border territory continue to bristle with its chronic peculiarities, even after August 5, 2019.
Looking at the unenviable fate of Arvind Kejriwal and his AAP colleagues, including ministers, and their unending run-ins with Delhi's lieutenant governor as well as the central government, who would blame Omar or Mehbooba for opting out of the fray, having been brought up on a palatable politico-Constitutional diet under the erstwhile (Special Status) dispensation?
On the other hand, they also face a paradox: Both of them suffered defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. They would have been impatiently looking for the first available opportunity to wash off that stigma.
Instead, they find themselves face to face with a dilemma.
The outcome of the Baramulla parliamentary poll stunned Omar and emerged as a fearsome deterrent for Mehbooba.
Apparently, both Omar and Mehbooba have a fishbone stuck in their throats.
Much has already been said about the so-called 'Engineer Rashid' phenomena, witnessed in the Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency.
Its potential political implications have far-reaching consequences.
For one, if, as happened in Baramulla, youth in the rest of the Valley get triggered enough to jump into the wider fray, the end result would be difficult to predict, especially as the state's post-August 5, 2019 political format remains substantially fragmented and foggy.
While the other old players in the game, notably the Congress and the BJP, were also running short of breath in the political aftermath of the parliamentary elections, they too are looking ahead fearfully.
The electoral game bristles with quite a few hazardous possibilities.
The BJP, in particular, is out there with higher stakes, having invested so much, for so long while administrating the UT for ten long years -- more than a half of it exclusively.
A hell of a lot of politico-Constitutional engineering took place during this period.
So far, the politico-Constitutional arrangement in J&K had by and large been serving the limited purpose of managing its thorny affairs with controllable fallout.
Since that edifice was razed to ground five years ago, there is only an untested alternative model as of now.
The fact that wide ranging changes had to be put in place before going for the Lok Sabha poll reveals the pitfalls perceived in the untried new paradigm.
The irony is that even after having ruled J&K for nearly a decade, half of it all by itself, the BJP and its ruling mechanism could not so far harvest any tangible gains out of the 'dress rehearsal' by way of contesting district and other level elections.
To top it, the party came through badly bruised in the 2024 parliamentary poll, compared to its previous performance.
Even otherwise, J&K has a long history of chronic democratic deficit.
The number of regime changes through elections is far less when compared to that between the elections.
Although the recent Lok Sabha poll was generally perceived to have been free and fair the list of rigged elections on record is disturbingly long.
That explains why even after an acknowledged clean parliamentary elections lingering doubts and suspicions continue to cloud the atmosphere.
Maybe it is because the ruling party at the Centre allowed itself to be seen overzealously stuck to its desire to somehow rule the country's only Muslim-majority state in return for what all the party and its government had done for the country.
The BJP's not-so-satisfactory performance in the Lok Sabha poll across the country might also be fuelling its fears on this account.
The forthcoming assembly elections could as well be its last chance to bag its most coveted politico-ideological trophy.
Worries and anxieties on this score, however, are not confined to the BJP. It is palpable across the board.
The NC, PDP and the Congress, who have so far existed as sort of hot house plants under the aborted politico-Constitutional 'arrangement', seem equally unsure after their exposure to the changed political climate.
For one, their most vocal and common 'autonomy' slogan is rendered obsolete and today it has no buyers in the market.
The only advantage they appear to be having on their side is that, in this round, even with their battered images they compare favourably against their resourcefully mightier ideological rival.
Also that the people largely feel that they are still not done with 'avenging' the bulldozing of their Constitutional exclusivity on August 5, 2019.
This long simmering feeling of revenge fuels the appetite for going out and voting in large numbers just as was witnessed in the Lok Sabha polls when many earlier records were broken.
For good reason, the Election Commission continues to exhibit it as a trophy.
Though its commonly perceived political dynamics, in the peculiar Kashmir context, convey a different connotation, as forcefully.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com