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Every trick in the trade is being tried unabashedly.
In simple arithmetical terms every possible 'arrangement' is being made to deny a majority to its rivals.
A split verdict would hand a vital advantage to the BJP which is adept at extracting the best out of such a situation, notes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
With just a few days left for the first of the 3-phase polling in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly election, the only feature one could possibly predict with confidence is that the voter turnout is most likely to break all old records. And that, by itself, is saying a lot, considering the (erstwhile) state's unenviable long record of separatist-propelled election boycotts.
An indication of this uncharacteristic trend gathering momentum became evident in the recent Lok Sabha elections as polling booths were 'inundated' by voters. That virtually set the tone for more-to-come.
A few months down the line, the 2024 assembly election has turned into a congested arena making it near impossible to size up the prospects of even the principal contenders like the National Conference, the Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Peoples Democratic Party. Each one of them as also the smaller groups look to be overawed by the unfamiliar cross pollination in the run-up to the eventual headcount.
What the main Opposition players dub as 'pre-poll rigging' came in the shape of the September 10 release of Engineer Rashid from long detention in Delhi, not-so-surprisingly till just the campaign period. This particular feature is a gift from the recent Lok Sabha election.
The banned Jammat e Islami's plunge into the fray, albeit indirectly, is a link in the same chain.
Both these developments are obviously linked with the BJP's strategy to maximise vote splitting in the Kashmir Valley in its quest for emerging as the single largest party, if not with a clear majority. The BJP's traditional vote base is limited to Jammu region.
Even the major contenders like the National Conference feel so unnerved by this machination that Omar Abdullah was compelled to rush to file nomination papers from a second constituency. He had filed papers from the family stronghold Ganderbal. After the mystery man, Sarjan Barkati, a detenu like Engineer Rashid, also filed a nomination from Ganderbal Omar had to go for a second constituency, Budgam, just in case...
As they say, once bitten twice shy. Omar is still nursing the body blow given to him by Engineer Rashid in the Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency.
This unprecedented jostling at the threshold looks incongruous with the feeble pull of the trophy at stake -- virtually a powerless legislative assembly of a Union Territory, compared with its mighty immediate predecessor -- a semi-autonomous legislature with a separate constitution of its own.
Viewed in its purely political context, this election seems to be rewriting history. Not only in numerical terms. But, importantly, in a positive historical sense as well. There is a precedent to go by.
Soon after winning the erstwhile J&K state's first ever free, fair assembly elections in 1977, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, the leader of the victorious National Conference party, equated it with a 'plebiscite' irrevocably endorsing the state's (1947) accession with the Indian Union. Between 1953 and 1975, Sheikh Abdullah's separatist Plebiscite Front had sought to question the 'legitimacy' of the accession.
The 1975 Kashmir Accord between the Sheikh and then prime minister Indira Gandhi ended that 22-year chapter and paved the way for his return to the mainstream. No wonder, Sheikh Abdullah's lieutenant Mirza Afzal Beg had described their separatist movement from 1953 to 1975 as 'siyasi awaragardi (political vagrancy)'.
Three generations have grown up since then and today they are spearheading the elections. It is their shadow that today dominates the electoral scene. Older players -- the NC, Congress, BJP and PDP -- find themselves up against an untried force that is shaping as an electoral whirlwind.
Of all the contestants in the fray, the BJP is out there with the highest political stakes. And it is not making any secret of its long cherished desire to rule the country's only Muslim-majority state. The BJP's 2014 alliance with the PDP gave it a toehold from where it turned itself into the proverbial 'camel in the tent'. The rest is history.
A decade down that line, the time for the BJP to redeem its dream is now. And it is leaving nothing to chance. Every trick in the trade is being tried unabashedly. In simple arithmetical terms every possible 'arrangement' is being made to deny a majority to its rivals.
A split verdict would hand a vital advantage to the BJP which is adept at extracting the best out of such situation.
In the Kashmir context, however, even these questionable tactics also have a positive feature, ironical though.
Whether the BJP eventually harvests the coveted crop or not, it has already earned a significant distinction: ensuring maximum possible wins popular participation in poll process.
Voter turnout in the 2024 assembly elections is expected to set an all-time new record, far beyond even that of the recent parliamentary elections in which the voting percentage was beyond all past records.
This little noticed feature of the assembly election has far-reaching consequences, going beyond te immediate question of who wins or who loses the ongoing assembly election.
To that extent, the BJP can claim that it had already established its political credentials
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com