Modi Is Going Nowhere!

He will be around for another crack at the elections, and a clear majority, predicts Saisuresh Sivaswamy.

It's been 20 years since we saw a towering leader we believed was on the brink of a famous victory stumble at the hustings.

Memory tends to get fuzzy, but this is what happened to another BJP prime minister in 2004. But with a crucial difference.

When the results came in, frontrunner Atal Bihari Vajpayee slid to second place, with the Congress party led by Sonia Gandhi, nosing just inches ahead -- surprising even Congressmen who had resigned to another five years in the Opposition.

That, is the power of the popular vote. It can turn certainties into maybes, and elevate outsiders to new heights.

That, is what also distinguishes the BJP governments of 2004 and 2024. The gap between Narendra Modi and the next largest party is as much as the BJP scored in 2004.

Which is why calls for Modi's resignation, on moral or numerical grounds, is misplaced.

The BJP remains the single largest party by far, as does the National Democratic Alliance remain the largest pre-poll bloc.

If the INDIA bloc thinks the numbers favour them, the floor of the 18th Lok Sabha's inaugural session is the right arena to test it.

Nevertheless, the Modi government has suffered a debacle, one that didn't seem likely when the prime minister strode through the grand Ram temple in Ayodhya just over four months ago.

At that time it seemed that he had cemented his place in the hall of greats with three elected terms in office, so far populated by just one prime minister. Someone astute as Nitish Kumar read the signs then and hurriedly abandoned his friends in the Opposition to join the man he had badmouthed only weeks earlier.

What went wrong between then and now, has been explained by many and there's nothing new to add.

Issues that Modi seemed immune to in his two terms, perhaps because they were allowed to fester and not given a solution, finally ended up hobbling him.

More than anti-incumbency, what put paid to his grand ambition was hubris, not just of his own (talking of divine ordained birth?!) but of the entire BJP that believed its rule was permanent and elections were only a formality.

But Modi's real challenge begins now.

From the time he made his political entry as Gujarat chief minister, he has never headed a minority government kept afloat by a coalition of allies.

This, and his unimpeded electoral run when he not only won majority after majority but also never trailed in any election, could have given rise to the god complex in him, adding to the traits that sociologist Ashis Nandy had outlined then.

Ergo, we saw impulsive decisions like demonetisation, and ill-thought-through schemes like Agnipath.

The National Democratic Alliance was a coalition in name; in reality it was a Modi government. In reality it was a Modi-only government.

That situation is unlikely to sustain any longer.

For one, Modi needs the allies perhaps more than they need him.

For another, be it the Telugu Desam Party or Janata Dal-United, both Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar have outscored the BJP in their backyards, underlining that they are the kings of their domain.

For 10 years the nation has seen Modi the dictator in office, Modi the rabble-rouser on the stump. Is there a democrat, a consensus-builder, hiding inside him that we will get to see now?

The answer to that question will determine the longevity of Modi 3.

My own belief is, we will see a different Modi government in the third term.

Modi believes he is a yugpurush sent down with a divine mission (we've long known this, but he himself recently admitted to it), and he will not let anything jeopardise his time on Earth.

Certainly not his own quirks and impulses and whims.

Will that mean we will see a kinder, gentler Modi?

No, but we will certainly see someone who is willing to listen to his allies.

More than the INDIA bloc, it will be the allies who will function as the real Opposition this time but behind the scenes.

Modi has hinted variously of his agenda for the third term, the many things lined up to do, all of which will proceed as per plan.

What may be put on the backburner will be the more contentious legislations and policies, like the Uniform Civil Code, the only remaining item on the BJP's core agenda.

That may not pass muster with powerful allies like Nitish Kumar and Naidu.

We have seen it happen before, too, under Vajpayee when the NDA 1 had a common minimum programme that shelved the BJP's core issues till someone like Modi came along.

The hope is that this time it won't have to wait long, just till Modi returns with a firm majority.

Surprised? But there needn't be any reason to be, for the BJP has clarified that the age limit of 75 for its senior leaders to be sent to the Marg Darshak Mandal, like Modi did with senior leaders in 2014, is not official policy, and it certainly won't apply to Modi.

What that means is that Modi will not retire on turning 75.

What that also means is that Modi will lead the BJP into the next general elections, due in 2029.

Among the other things that will occupy his mind over the next five years is a succession plan.

It is obvious that in the BJP's election sweepstakes it is Modi from ranks 1 to 10, there is simply no other vote-catcher.

Modi, or the BJP, or the ideological forebear the RSS, will not want the gains of the last 10 years to go to waste for lack of a successor to Modi, and will insist on a proper succession plan, corporate style.

If you monitored Modi's election campaign closely, you will realise that he made no mention of the first PM while aiming to secure a third term after Jawaharlal Nehru. Even in Tuesday's victory speech at the BJP HQ, he mentioned that it was the first time since 1962 that a government was elected for the third time -- without mentioning Nehru by name.

But Nehru looms large in the prime minister's mental space, we know that.

It is not enough to just pull up alongside him, for Modi it will have to be about surpassing him.

Ergo, a fourth term in 2029.

So everyone rejoicing over the fall of Modi in 2024, please hold your horses.

Modi is going nowhere.

He will be around for another crack at the elections, and a clear majority.

• India Votes 2024

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com