The sudden proximity between India and US has, in the eyes of many, sidelined China. This is not the case, argues Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
On February 28, 1972, erstwhile sworn enemies, the United States and the People's Republic of China, signed the historic 'Shanghai declaration' and ushered in an era of a quasi Sino-American alliance.
It changed the dynamic of world politics and so weakened the Soviet Union that it ultimately crumbled in 1990. The US is undoubtedly the world's sole military superpower. It is a fact that barely two per cent of its exports and one per cent of its imports are related to India.
Thus, despite all the 'diplomatese' and obfuscation, the fact remains that India-US agreements have a clear security linkage. India-US relations are clearly aimed at 'balancing' (neither containing nor encircling) China in Asia.
India is the only country that has the potential to do so. Future historians will rank US President Barack Obama's visit to India in January 2015 and the agreements arrived at with India at par with the event of 1972 in terms of global impact.
US investment and unfettered export of technology transformed China, especially after Deng Xiaoping assumed power in China in 1978. 2015 could well be called India's Deng Xiaoping moment since it is only after Modi becoming prime minister that the much delayed Indo-US partnership has taken off.
There are tremendous similarities between the two events. Like India has misgivings about American support to Pakistan, the Chinese were uneasy with and annoyed at continued American support to Taiwan.
While the US built up Chinese economy and its industry, it continued to supply arms to Taiwan. Like then, so also in present times, the US is unlikely to abandon its old ally. Despite these constraints, the coming together of the US and China after Shanghai completely changed the power equation between the Soviet Union-led Socialist bloc and the West led by the Americans.
Afghanistan merely hastened the end of the Soviet Union, its decline began 1972 onwards.
The Sino-US rapprochement also had an impact on the Indian subcontinent. Shorn of implicit US guarantees against nuclear blackmail by China, now an American ally, the Indians went in for a nuclear test in 1974, ushering in nuclear weapons in the region.
The nervous media reactions in China to Obama's visit to India shows that the Chinese are well aware of the likely import of this event. This is not a new development. I was in China in January 2005, a good 10 years ago, and held discussions with the Chinese on Sino-Indian relations. For the bulk of the time the Chinese were interested in knowing how close India was to the US.
In July 2008, out of the blue, an American doctoral student (Lora Salman) at Beijing university's department of international relations (the first-ever American student) landed at my home to discuss the same issue. Her topic of research was the 'Impact of American technological exports to India on Asian military balance'.
The Chinese disquiet over India-US relations has a fairly long history. Additionally, anti-American feelings have never been entirely absent in China. It is reported that some Chinese gloated when the 9/11 attacks took place and felt the US 'had it coming'.
It is true that there are some major differences between the Sino-American alliance of the Cold War era and the nascent India-US partnership. The US and China were enemies for a long time, with Chinese soldiers regularly using the American president's (Lyndon B Johnson) dummy for bayonet practice in the 1960s. India and the US, on the other hand, were at worst 'estranged democracies'.
Unlike its Soviet enemy, China and the United States have extensive economic ties and dependencies. The American aim in case of China appears to be to 'balance' its power and manage its rise; not threaten it with destruction.
The limited objective may well mean that the US is unlikely to give a carte blanche to India as it did to China.
The Americans have a consistent policy towards China and India. As early as February 1958, John F Kennedy, then a US Senator, wrote how the US must help democratic India win the economic contest with China. American National Security Council analyst Robert F Kromer suggested a 'middle of the road' strategy to deal with China's rise.
Economic engagement and military containment were the key operative concepts. Creation of an India-Japan alliance and support to India was the key to check China. It is interesting to note that this analysis is dated April 7, 1961, before the Sino-Indian border conflict of 1962.
Many domestic critics have claimed that the US president's visit was over-hyped and a mere PR exercise. It is true that at times it almost seemed like a Bollywood film or a marriage video. However, given the general suspicion about the US in India, this was necessary to win over the sceptical public. After all, the older generation of Indians still remember the US tilt to Pakistan during the 1971 war. American double standards, when it comes to terror attacks on India from Pakistan, have riled most Indians.
It was therefore necessary to have the full display of friendship to convince the people of India that the US had indeed changed.
President Obama's visit is only a small step in the right direction, there are still 'miles to go, before we accept that India's 'Shanghai moment' has arrived.
Colonel Anil A Athale (retd) is Coordinator, Initiative for Peace and Disarmament.
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