What is the point of political analysis without forecasts? It is like opining where the Sensex will go without betting some money on the direction; or like playing teen patti (cards) with fake coins. No risk, no glory, and especially no fun.
Indian political developments over the last six months have been the funniest in ages, as has been the joyous political scene across the border. Certainly a healthier rivalry than any war, or Kashmir, or cricket, can provide.
So here goes. It all started in May with Mayawati's unexpectedly large victory in the Uttar Pradesh elections. This election was touted, especially by the Congress, as their emerging as the party of the future. To do well in UP would mean the stage was set for the Congress going out alone; no more pesky allies, and no more the coffee shop Left. Wouldn't that be lovely!
It wasn't to be, as both the Congress, and that other political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, were swept away by the rainbow coalition of Dalits-Muslims-Brahmins-men-women. Ironically, and this is the meat behind our forecasts, the ostensible loss for the Congress may turn out to be its biggest turning point in the last 15 years.
But that is not the viewpoint of the CW -- conventional wisdom. CW thinks that it is only a matter of time before Mayawati herself is prime minister, as she builds this coalition across the nation. Let me see, Dalits are 16 per cent of the population, Muslims 13 per cent, upper caste about 21 per cent. That is half the votes without counting the fact that men are 52 per cent, women 48 per cent. Irony again, but this is what the Congress had thought for at least a 100 years.
The Congress, and CW, had also believed that the Muslims voted en masse, so if you had won over one of them, you had won all. That wisdom was exposed for its hollowness a long, long time ago. It is extremely unlikely that Mayawati will be able to repeat her success in UP, let alone in the country. But there will be time before that reality is front page news.
And that explains a lot of the present political do-dahs. For example, how come after being flat on its back for three years, the Congress found not only spine to stand up but to 'effectively' run?
The loss in UP was meant to be debilitating or so the coffee shop heroes of the Left believed. Which is why when Manmohan Singh (certainly the most mild-mannered political leader in the world, let alone Indian history) asked the Left to walk the plank if they disagreed so strongly about the Indo-US nuclear agreement, they felt confident that it could walk the plank and not walk off into the sunset.
Why the sudden change in style? Does the Congress believe that much in the principle of the agreement that they are willing to lose power? Nah. It has more to do with the recognition that the Left forces can easily be replaced by Mayawati's troupe.
But the half-life of Mayawati's coat-tails is about a year, i.e. the probability of Mayawati carrying UP in a Lok Sabha election will fall with time; which means that after a year the replacement of the old Left parts by shiny new UP MPs would be an iffy proposition; which meant that the challenge to the Left to walk the plank was now.
Anyone who thinks that the Indo-US agreement is about the benefit/cost analysis of nuclear energy needs to take an Economics 101 class. The agreement is more, much more, about the emerged reality of China; which makes one question the patriotism of those who question the deal on issues of 'sovereignty.' It is obvious that there are three major beneficiaries if the strategic Indo-US agreement does not go through -- China, Iran and Pakistan.
Now for the nth time, the BJP and the Left are on the same side. And the Congress was correct in sensing that both would be foolish to fall into the trap. The BJP, instrumental in initiating the process of strategic alliance with the US, finds itself today both without a mind and without a leader.
So instead of quietly supporting the Indo-US deal, and taking credit for it, the BJP decides to go on the offensive with no head and no plan. The Left has coffee and also no plan. Enter the Congress challenge, and desire, for early elections.
If elections were held today, would Congress depart significantly from 140-plus seats? Unlikely. But as every election since 1996 has shown (and there have been four), the era of coalition governments means that the winner is one with the better political partners. And Mayawati will lose more than gain by going with the NDA; she has no choice but to politically ally herself with the Congress, and both know it.
Add to all this the admittedly small possibility of a split within the Left. The battle between the Left Neanderthals and the Left modernisers has long been brewing; it is not a coincidence that the modernisers are elected individuals, while the others are known for their skills at debate in smoke-filled rooms. Why should the latter dominate the agenda for sods who actually have the courage of being rejected by the voters? How long can this inequality go on?
The BJP will have to find another Vajpayee, i.e. a pragmatic person who believes religion belongs in the privacy of homes. Until it does so, the Congress can hope to muddle along, and who knows, help bring about an economic reform or two. In any case, in a globalised world that India now belongs to, does it really matter who is at the Centre? Policy is now dictated by competitive common sense -- what role can politicians (or bureaucrats) play in this brave new world?
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