The Restoration Of Indian Primacy

It seems in the geopolitics of the 21st century, we can see the subcontinent acting as one geopolitical entity to secure its economic interests.

The key to this transformation is a strong India that is pre-eminent but not dominant, notes Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).

15 August 1947 not only saw the departure of the British from the subcontinent but also the breakup of the geopolitical unity of the region.

Pakistan that was created on the basis of religion was tagged onto the Middle East to suit American geopolitical interests.

For over seven decades, the US included Pakistan in its central command while India was part of its Pacific command.

The creation of Bangladesh in 1971 was the first challenge to this and the US tried its level best till 2000, 'to divide India into manageable parts', according to Jeane Kirkpatrick the former United States ambassador to the United Nations.

The US policies have changed since then as it saw India as the only possible counterweight to China.

Pakistani 'separatism' flies in the face of linguistic, cultural, racial, dietary affinity with India.

The history of Pakistan is intertwined with the rest of the region and not the Middle East.

For many years this fiction was kept alive by promoting Pakistan as a rival and balancer to India in the subcontinent.

Even the Pakistani nuclear capability was fathered jointly by the US and China.

There is enough evidence in the public domain how centrifuges were shipped from Germany (a staunch US ally) to Pakistan.

The economic travails of Pakistan in the last decade plus India's steady progress has reduced the role of Pakistan as a 'spoiler' in the region.

The smaller nations ranging from the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal used this rivalry to checkmate India.

As Pakistan moved towards economic bankruptcy and was militarily bested by India (the Balakot air strike of February 2019) these smaller neighbours began to court China.

The last decade showed that China cannot replace the US in terms of economic aid or military clout.

It was India that helped Sri Lanka in its economic crisis. The Maldives after its 'India out' campaign is back to India for trade and tourism. The Maldives has realised the limits of the China card.

In Nepal as well, while political rivals routinely use India as a whipping boy to win elections, no sooner they come to power, their tune changes.

In the short term, the recent events in Bangladesh -- where anti-Indianism seems rampant -- looks to buck the trend.

But it is too early to judge. It seems saner elements seem aware of Bangladesh's dependence on India and one can hear conciliatory noises.

The major element in bringing about these changes in the neighbourhood is India's growing economic and military muscle.

But equally important has been our astute diplomacy.

During the COVID-19 crisis, India prioritised the supply of vaccines to our neighbours.

We have also been the first responders to natural disasters. Our soft power includes Bollywood and cricket. Neither China nor the US have these assets.

But most importantly, India has consciously avoided interfering in the internal power struggles in these countries.

So an anti-Indian politician routinely comes to power in Nepal, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. No politician even in Pakistan has accused India on this score.

Pakistan is the last hold out in the region. Despite its usual Kashmir rhetoric, Pakistan has slowly whittled down its demand for statehood for Kashmir within the Indian Union.

The successful conduct of elections and statehood for Kashmir will be claimed as a victory by Pakistan as result of its advocacy.

The current violence in Kashmir is the last desperate attempt by extremists who do not have the Pakistan army's backing. This explains Indian restraint in retaliation.

As a historian who studied the 18th century history of India, one can see a subcontinent with more than one state but an economically integrated region with easy cross border movement of people and goods. Intra regional trade will be indeed win win for all.

Then prime minister Indira Gandhi had proclaimed an 'Indira doctrine' in 1972 on the lines of America's Monroe Doctrine. Possibly it was before its time and India did not have the kind of clout needed to ensure this.

But it seems in the geopolitics of the 21st century, we can see the subcontinent acting as one geopolitical entity to secure its economic interests.

The key to this transformation is a strong India that is pre-eminent but not dominant.

Colonel Anil A Athale (retd) is a military historian whose earlier columns can be read here.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com