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The big question now is whether the unprecedented fracas in the White House could backfire on Zelenskyy since Washington has significant leverage vis-a-vis Kyiv and given Ukraine's heavy dependence on the US for critical elements of its defence, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The dramatic scene in the Oval Office on Friday, February 28, 2025 evening signals that President Donald Trump is decoupling the US from the 'forever war' in Ukraine that his predecessor Joe Biden left behind.
The war is poised to end with a whimper, but its 'butterfly effect' on our incredibly complex, deeply interconnected world will define European and international security for decades to come.
The Western media, which is hostile toward Trump, have seized the opportunity to caricature him as an impulsive figure in a role reversal with Zelenskyy.
In reality, though, Trump has been literally driven to this point by the Biden administration.
The highly charged emotional reaction by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen commiserating with President Zelenskyy speaks for itself: 'Your dignity honours the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President.'
Trump's refusal to give von der Leyen an appointment may partly explain her fury as a woman scorned.
Truly, the 'Collective West' find themselves at a crossroads and do not know which road to take.
Without US air cover and satellite inputs, Western troop deployment in Ukraine will be impossible.
Even French President Emmanuel Macron would agree that his troops will be put through a meat grinder.
Both von der Leyen and Macron had a whale of a time as cheerleaders of Biden's war but any further adventures in Ukraine will be suicidal, to put it mildly.
Ukraine's military will collapse if Trump freezes support. None of the European powers will risk a collision with Russia.
Trump knows by now that the Western narrative of Biden's war is a load of b******t peppered with falsehoods and outright lies, and that the war erupted only out of the diabolic Western plot to poke the bear, which got provoked finally and hit out.
The CIA's coup in Kyiv in February 2014 was a watershed event paving the way for a NATO presence on Ukrainian soil.
Indeed, terrible things happened, which have been shoved under the carpet -- for instance, then German foreign minister (current president) Frank-Walter Steinmeier's dubious links with the neo-Nazi Ukrainian groups who acted as storm troopers in the 2014 coup.
Just think of the grotesqueness of it -- a German Social Democrat patronising neo-Nazi groups!
Most certainly, Trump knows that the US deep state had set in motion an agenda to destabilise the Russian Federation and dismember it as the unfinished business no sooner than the Soviet Union was dissolved.
The Chechen War has no other explanation. In fact, Putin has accused (external link) US agents of directly aiding the insurgents.
Again, the Clinton administration floated the idea of NATO expansion as early as in 1994. It came out of the blue but was obviously a work in progress since the day after the disbandment of the Soviet Union.
By the mid-nineties, even Boris Yeltsin understood that he was played nicely.
The return of Evgeny Primakov to the Kremlin and Yeltsin's overture to Beijing were the surest signs of a course correction.
Those familiar with Soviet history had known all along that Ukraine would be the theatre where the US would set the bear trap and try to seal the fate of Russia.
If further confirmation was needed, it came with the CIA's colour revolution in Ukraine in 2003 where the election was rigged (as is happening in Romania today) and carried to a third round until the proxy emerged 'victorious' -- and surely, Viktor Yushchenko brought the NATO membership issue to the table.
Just four years thereafter, at the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, George W Bush insisted that the alliance formally offered membership to Ukraine, ignoring Vladimir Putin's protestations in real time at the venue, rubbing the bear's nose in the dust!
Today, Britain's MI6 calls the shots in Kyiv. Zelenskyy admitted recently that much of the money given by Biden simply 'disappeared'.
Sordid tales of massive kickbacks and corruption are galore. Biden knew but ignored them.
The Biden family's involvement in Ukraine's cesspools is widely known. Contrary to his pledge earlier not to do so, Biden felt constrained finally to grant a presidential pardon to son Hunter Biden so that he wouldn't end up in jail.
Suffice to say, Zelenskyy's 'strategic defiance' stems out of his quiet confidence that Western leaders -- starting with Boris Johnson and Biden -- who have been fellow travellers in the gravy train during the past three years of the war are beholden to him till eternity.
His belligerence last Friday was carefully stage-managed theatrics and he was put up to it most probably by von der Leyen and sundry other discontented 30-odd Western leaders like Canada's Justin Trudeau who confabulated in Kiev last Monday even as Macron was 'finessing' Trump in the Oval Office.
These insurgents within the Western alliance seem to think that Trump will back off if frontally confronted.
In sum, Trump and J D Vance did just the right thing by putting Zelenskyy in his due place and called the bluff of the Europeans.
The axis between Zelenskyy and his European Union supporters in cajoling Trump, pressuring him and flattering him in turn to get him on board the bandwagon so that the war rolls on for another four years.
Last week alone, the presidents of France and Poland and the British prime minister descended on the White House one after another seeking assurance that the war in Ukraine will continue.
But Trump has refused to oblige. (external link)
Zelenskyy and his European backers want a 'forever war' in the western border lands of Eurasia, the traditional invasion route to Russia for marauders from Europe.
And precisely for this reason, Trump last week, with great deliberation, again ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine.
He also pointed to the ongoing talks on 'major economic development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia'.
Trump repeated last week that the war could be ended 'within weeks' and warned of the risk of escalation into a 'third world war'.
Basically, he realises that this is an unwinnable war, and is apprehensive that a prolonged war may transform into a quagmire sinking his presidency and derailing the grand bargain he hopes to strike with the two other superpowers, Russia and China, to create synergy for his ambitious MAGA project.
Trump has chalked up 2026, the Quarter Millennial of the United States Declaration of Independence, for hosting the leaders of Russia and China on American soil to celebrate the high noon of his quest for world peace.
The European political elites weaned on the liberal-globalist 'rules-based order' cannot understand Trump's deep-rooted convictions and his abhorrence of war.
The big question now is whether the unprecedented fracas in the White House could backfire on Zelenskyy (and the insurgents in Europe), since Washington has significant leverage vis-a-vis Kyiv and given the latter's heavy dependence on the US for some of the critical elements of its defence.
Following the Oval Office argument, Zelenskyy issued a lengthy statement (external link) admitting that it is 'crucial' for Ukraine to have Trump's support.
A patch-up cannot be ruled out but the transatlantic system has received a big jolt, as the overwhelming majority of European countries have voiced support for Zelenskyy.
In fact, there hasn't been a solitary voice censuring Zelenskyy. Britain kept mum.
Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister, hosted a meeting of European leaders on Sunday which Zelenskyy attended.
It is unlikely that the Europeans will push the envelope at their conclave on Sunday as it becomes clear that Trump is in no forgiving mood.
But the damage has been done. The transatlantic alliance will never be the same again.
In this dismal scenario, the best hope is that Zelenskyy's ouster, which seems probable, will not be a violent bloody event, considering the power rivalries within the regime in Kyiv.
At any rate, his replacement may not be a terrible thing to happen since it would necessitate holding the long overdue election in Ukraine and lead to the emergence of a legitimate leadership in Kyiv, which has now become a dire necessity for what Trump would call 'common sense' to prevail.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar served the Indian Foreign Service for 29 years.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com