DMK, TMC allies for now, but for how long?

G K Moopanar did not make it to the prime minister's chair and M Karunanidhi heaved a sigh of relief. If he had his way Moopanar wouldn't even have been considered folr the office. But Karunanidhi still wanted his Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam to be part of the United Front government and the only way to ensure it was not to have an open battle with its coalition partner, the Tamil Maanila Congress.

Only an alliance will help both survive, especially if the elections come up early. But if the Gujral government proves stable enough to defer elections, it won't break their hearts to part ways.

Moopanar plans to put his "nationalist" party in the driver's seat in Tamil Nadu within the next 10 years. Karunanidhi, knowing this, is unlikely to promote the TMC when the DMK faces convulsions over his successor in the coming years.

A whole generation of voters has not seen a Congress government at Fort St George. And if Karunanidhi can help it, he won't allow a local leader of Congress vintage to become prime minister either, especially since his Dravidian cause has lost much of its earlier sheen.

For now both parties are hanging in there together. Moopanar planned to help the DMK wipe out the AIADMK and then make his TMC the natural alternative to the party in power. Karunanidhi knew it all when he chose Moopanar and his TMC as an electoral partner last year, but the compulsion was political -- the AIADMK, headed by Jayalalitha, was still in power.

But, contrary to the expectations of both the DMK and the TMC, the AIADMK refuses to be wiped out. It is now actually forming an alliance with another anti-Karunanidhi force, the Marumalarchchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam of V Gopalaswamy.

The Congress (read TMC) commands a 15 to 20 per cent share of the votes a full 30 years after losing power in the state with no hopes of an early return, while the AIADMK polled nearly 25 per cent of the votes last year, even when the tide was against Jayalalitha.

Between them, the AIADMK and MDMK have a total of 30 per cent or more of the votes, the former accounting for five-sixth of the tally. Against this, the DMK and the TMC together can be expected to get 35 per cent of the votes.

Even a few Lok Sabha seats for the AIADMK -- the party now has none -- can mean that Jayalalitha's manipulative skills can come into play at the national level, where a coalition government would still be a likelihood.

Moopanar wants time to consolidate his party, which has no local-level organisation in most villages since the Congress days. The party has only contested all the assembly seats in the state in 1989, and state partymen are used to riding piggyback on either of the Dravidian parties.

He is also seeking a popular reason to part company with the DMK, one that will work with the voter. There should be no complaints against the DMK government other than for lacklustre performance, making things difficult for Moopanar. He also wants to strengthen the TMC base by retaining the three or four per cent of the Congress votes through an arrangement with the party's national leadership. And, no, he can do without the party's local leaders, thank you.

Karunanidhi wants to stay on in power, and exit in honor. The last two times he was chief minister, his government was sacked unceremoniously. He knows he should not let a Congress backer like Moopanar remain in a key position and promote his own party. But Karunanidhi is afraid of fighting the Centre and finding himself out of a job.

What he wanted a government without a Congress-based prime minister like Moopanar so that elections can be deferred. He got it. As a partner he prefers the UF now but the BJP could do as well. Better, in fact, since it has no base or ambitions in his state yet.

Would Moopanar back a BJP government? His party has 20 Lok Sabha members, against the DMK's 17. If elections aren't nigh, he would keep his distance from the national party and try to promote his own party in the state in the next four years before the elections. And if the BJP ties up with the DMK, he has the excuse to attack Karunanidhi.

Moopanar is not quite sure what to do. If elections loom up it, it will be the DMK he depends on, not Kesri and the Congress. For now, he cannot part company with his coalition partner.