Why the Congress didn't split

Syed Firdaus Ashraf in New Delhi

Dissidents in the Congress had planned to support the United Front during the vote of confidence on Friday. But the catch was that even if the three dissident groups -- under Sharad Pawar, Rajesh Pilot and P V Narasimha Rao -- joined forces, they could not drum up the necessary 86 members required to pull the United Front government through.

Threatening noises made by Mamta Banerjee, the volatile Congress MP from Calcutta, and not-too-secret conclaves by Rao lieutenants Dr Jagannath Mishra, Suresh Kalmadi and others who think little of Kesri made little difference. Therefore, reluctantly perhaps, the Congress rebels decided to obey the whip which demanded that they be both present at the session and vote against the government during the vote.

Even other party leaders think Congress president Sitaram Kesri acted hastily when he withdrew support to a government which was looking good.

The Congress president had met party leaders on March 28 when Pawar had advised him against taking precipitate action. But Kesri distrusted Pawar and Pilot, who he felt was too close to the UF and took the drastic step when both of them were not around. In fact, Pilot was representing the government in the North-East when the decision was taken.

A senior Congress MP told Rediff On The NeT, "Kesri was expecting that a large chunk of UF constituents would join us after he withdrew support. However, it seems he failed in his calculations," he admitted sadly. Kesri felt it was a gamble worth taking, a desperate one no doubt considering his party's pitiful strength of 143 seats.

Initially, he claimed there would be no talks with the UF and that the Congress would stake its claim to form the government. But he later even went to the sick bed of former prime minister V P Singh, hoping for some settlement which could help him maintain his pride. He was finally reduced only to demanding Deve Gowda's ouster, not because it was in the party's interest but because the prime minister had not stopped investigation agencies probing his past and because he appeared close to Rao.

This could be Kesri's last gamble. If the Congress does not form a government or remain a part of it, he won't remain prime minister either.

Meanwhile, the United Front felt on Thursday evening there was no need to change its leader as demanded by the Congress. Its leaders feel that backing out would only lead to more attempts at blackmail by the Congress.

Most of its constituents being regional parties, strong on their own turf, they have little to lose individually in the event of a mid-term election. The Telugu Desam Party should make it in Andhra Pradesh and the Tamil Maanila Congress coalition with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam should last in Tamil Nadu barring internal clashes.

The Asom Gana Parishad, the Janata Dal, the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) should all do well on their home grounds. And the Congress should provide even less competition than they did the last time.

Speaking to Rediff On The NeT, UF spokesperson Jaipal Reddy said, "The talks failed because the Congress were adamant... We do not fear facing the people. We are sure that all the secular votes will come to us since we will go down as martyrs after the Congress withdrew support."

Another senior UF leader told Rediff On The NeT, "Indira Gandhi did not support Charan Singh's government. The same was the case with Rajiv Gandhi, who withdrew support to the four-month-old Chandra Shekhar government for no reason. How can we trust the Congress which has a history of betraying so many people at the last moment? We thought it better to go to the people right now rather than later."