Afghan neighbours prepare for Taliban offensives

Foreign ministers from five Muslim republics in Central Asia met in Tajikistan last week. On their agenda was a crucial matter -- to devise ways of neutralising the threat posed by the Taliban regime in neighbouring Afghanistan and, thus, consolidate the peace process in Tajikistan.

The ministers -- from Kazhakstan, Kirgizstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- met on April 4 and 5 in Tajikistan's capital Dushanbe. So what was so special about it? That, unusually for them, Tajikistan President Imam Ali Rahmanov and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Boris Pastekov attended the meeting?

No, not really. There are more significant things.

First, the place: the meeting was held in Dushanbe, the capital of the poorest and the least stable of the five republics. Which, in fact, underlines the importance that Russia and the rest of the central Asian republics attach to Tajikistan because of its strategic position.

With the snow on the Hindu Kush mountains in northern Afghanistan melting in the spring sun, there is a widespread expectation that the Taliban will launch major offensives to capture north and north-eastern Afghanistan (presently they occupy only two-thirds of the country). These areas are now under Ahmad Shah Masoud (an ethnic Tajik) and Abdul Rashid Dostum (an ethnic Uzbek).

Second, the time: The foreign ministers meeting was held a month before a treaty between the warring parties in Tajikistan is to be signed in Moscow. This would put the final seal on peace in a civil war-torn Tajikistan by installing a coalition government there between President Rahmanov's secularists and the moderate Islamists.

In Afghanistan, the two Taliban fighters, Abdul Rashid Dostum (who controls the region adjoining Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) and Ahmad Shah Masoud (in control of areas adjoining Tajikistan, Pakistan and China) have got together. But how long will this alliance last against the powerful Talibans? That is what is worrying the Central Asian leaders.

Even if the extremist forces do not win outright, the fighting will drive many ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks into Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in order to escape Taliban hardships.

Worse, the Taliban will, in the resulting turmoil, infiltrate the neigbouring states with its activists and try to initiate a jihad (holy war) against the secular regimes there.

In short, the predicted Taliban military moves will have a strong potential of destablising Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. And this is deep concern for not only the regional states but also Russia, where Muslims are the largest religious minority.

Small wonder then, that leaders got together in Dushanbe urgently.

Tajikistan President Rahmanov, meanwhile, has called for a 'representative government' or a coalition administration in the Afghan capital, on the same lines as the one proposed in his country.

This is a vain hope. The only reason why Rahmanov conceded to share power with the Islamist opposition is because, despite Russia's continued backing, he failed to quell them. However, the situation is different in Afghanistan. There the Taliban forces is an indomitable power. Hence, the chances of a national unity government taking office in Kabul are nil.

Which, in other words, means vicious fighting in Afghanistan and consequent trouble in the adjoining Central Asian states shortly.

The only positive aspect of the scenario is that it will encourage secularist and moderate Islamists in Tajikistan to unify themselves.

UNI