Vaghela wins crucial Radhanpur by-election

Gujarat Chief Minister Shankarsinh Vaghela was on Tuesday declared elected by a margin of 13,984 votes over his Bharatiya Janata Party rival Shankarbhai Choudhary in the Radhanpur by-election held on Saturday. Vaghela polled 57,569 votes against Choudhary’s 43,585 votes.

This is a big setback for the BJP since Vaghela, originally a senior party leader, had revolted against the leadership of then chief minister Keshubhai Patel and later Suresh Mehta and finally formed a government with Congress support on October 3 last year.

The BJP expelled Vaghela on August 6 last year, and, 12 days later, he formed the Rashtriya Janata Party. Another breakaway group of the BJP, led by Dilip Parikh, formed the Mahagujarat Janata Party which sought to form a government with Vaghela as chief minister. After this electoral victory, the way is clear for the merger of the RJP and the MJP. Vaghela has ruled out any union of his party with the Congress, but that party will continue to support his government.

In all, there were 42 candidates in the fray, but the contest was essentially between Vaghela and Chaudhary. Some of the 34 independent candidates on the ballot were there with a specific mandate, confuse the voter and make it difficult for Vaghela.

The BJP had made the by-election a prestige issue, bringing in hordes of religious leaders and sadhus to sway the populace. There was Acharya Dharmendra and Sadhvi Ritambhara, besides several sadhus, all pitching for the party. It even allegedly fielded three candidates named Vaghela -- one even with the chief minister's first name -- in the fray.

It opted for the inexperienced Choudhary because its first choice, Praveen Togadia, general secretary of the Viishwa Hindu Parishad's Gujarat unit, did not want to contest.

Choudhary, a devout follower of Pandurang Shastri Athavale, was banking on the support of the 100 villages where the Magsaysay Award winner's followers have brought great social change.

The BJP claimed Vaghela had opted for a border constituency because of a strong presence of the underworld -- consisting mostly of drug smugglers. The party campaigned at the assembly, district, taluka, nagar palika, block, village, family and individual level. Its Mahila Morcha visited remote areas and tried to drum up support.

The RJP too fought hard, with allegations that Choudhary had molested women in the BJP hostel, and by working on the local press. Both the Gujarat Samachar and the Jung Rakhewal were distributed free in the run-up to the election.

The BJP campaign was headed by former general secretary Narendra Modi, who was sent off to Punjab for being unable to deal with Vaghela's first revolt. This was apparently his chance to redeem himself.

Vaghela will try hard to strengthen his support among the backward castes, who account for 70 per cent of the state's population. In this he is actually taking away from the traditional vote bank of the Congress. These voters came to his aid during this election though the BJP pointed out that its candidate belonged to the OBC while Vaghela himself did not. That apparently did not make a difference.

If the RJP emerges as a strong third force in Gujarat, it may opt for seat adjustments with the Congress in future elections. The Congress did not field a candidate in Radhanpur, putting its weight behind Vaghela. Not that it would have made a difference. The Congress vote had declined from a hefty 85 per cent in the 1985 assembly poll in this constituency to 32 per cent in 1990 and 14.2 per cent in 1995.

BJP sources are concerned that Vaghela’s victory may make some more party members go over to his group. The BJP has 77 seats, and with the merger between the RJP and the MJP, the ruling party will have a total strength of 45. This is still short of a majority in the 182-member state assembly, making it still dependent on the Congress for survival.

The Radhanpur seat fell vacant when Lavingji Thakore, an independent who had won the February 1995 assembly election, stepped down, clearing the way for Vaghela. Thakore had defeated the BJP's Memabhai Choudhary by a narrow margin of 307 votes.

Both Choudhary and Thakore now hold lucrative posts in corporations controlled by the state government.