Madras, not Delhi, is the capital of political India

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

Madras, not Delhi, is the capital of political India. In the absence of Calcutta, that is. Even while getting a 'loaded' and unrequired authorisation from his Tamil Maanila Congress executive to negotiate with the Congress for the continuance of the United Front government at the Centre, party chief Govindswamy Karupaiah Moopanar in the company of DMK supremo M Karunanidhi, holds the key to solving the political impasse, in Delhi

"The situation has not changed a wee bit from what it was a year back when Deve Gowda became prime minister," says a DMK source. With the Leftists resolving not to back a Congress-led government, regional parties like the Asom Gana Parishad, DMK and the Telugu Desam Party hold the key. "And a general election being the other possibility, what with Karunanidhi and (TDP leader and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister) Nara Chandrababu Naidu swearing by Deve Gowda, Moopanar too needs the DMK to face an AIADMK-MDMK onslaught."

It is this realisation very early in the negotiations to resolve the impasse that obviously tempted Karunanidhi, Moopanar and Naidu to return to their home-bases. Moopanar went ahead with his scheduled TMC executive meet and first anniversary celebrations at Coimbatore this week.

"Let others realise this fact, and come to us," say sources from both the DMK and TMC. "We will have to reconsider our strategy only if the Leftists change their position." And there is no reason, adds the DMK leader quoted earlier, to believe that Congress emissaries have been able to placate the Left Front leaders."

The fact is that the numbers don't add up for Kesri. Obviously, the Congress leader was counting on the poll fears of leaders like Mulayam Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav, to work wonders on Karunanidhi and Moopanar. The BJP-BSP combine in Uttar Pradesh could mean a near-rout for Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party if a general election was to be called now. Laloo Yadav's stock is already low in Bihar. Kesri thought this insecurity would help him, but the United Front has stuck to Deve Gowda and the Congress chief's strategy has come unstuck.

If Karunanidhi's gameplan of enlisting the AGP's Mahanta and Naidu's support very early in the impasse has helped reassure Deve Gowda, it may have also thwarted the TMC's hopes of Moopanar becoming prime minister. The TMC leader is still the candidate acceptable to both the Congress and the United Front, if Deve Gowda goes. But it will require all the ingenuity of the Delhi leaders to persuade the DMK supremo to change his stand and find a honourable face-saving -- "life-saving," according to former prime minister V P Singh -- measure for the Congress getting out of the mess of its own creation.

In which case, either the Congress dumps Kesri and backs down on its threat to the United Front, or faces a general election, unless of course, the Front dumps Deve Gowda and accepts Moopanar as the his successor.

Karunanidhi would not like to be pushed to a situation where he will have to either accept Moopanar as prime minister or reject it openly and be dubbed anti-Tamil, a very high price in electoral terms. Moopanar too would not like to be embarrassed by his name being mentioned as likely PM and rejected by others at will. Nor can he afford mistrust to develop between the DMK and TMC until his party is ready to face an election on its own.

"Moopanar is not unwilling to be prime minister," says a TMC source. "We can even try to persuade him to go against the DMK if it came to that. But he cannot afford to throw his hat into the ring, until the Congress and others can assure him that the numbers total up to 272."

Last May when both the BJP and the Congress approached the TMC after the general election, Moopanar only asked them to find 250-odd members, and return with the figures for it to pool in the TMC's 20. Given the post-poll scenario in Tamil Nadu where P V Narasimha Rao was seen as a villain for forging an alliance with Jayalalitha Jayaram, the Congress electing the former prime minister as its parliamentary group leader, forced Karunanidhi and Moopanar to look for other mutually acceptable alternatives. H D Deve Gowda was the result.