If the flurry of compromise formulae do not work, it looks like curtains for Deve Gowda

George Iype in New Delhi

As reconciliation talks between Congress leaders and United Front partners to end the political impasse began, a set of compromise formulae to help form the next coalition government have emerged.

But one week after Congress president Sitaram Kesri withdrew support to the federal government, there is nearly a unanimous view among the UF constituents and the Congress leadership: Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda will have to relinquish his chair by April 11.

Kesri and his supporters, who initially insisted that they would be ready for only a Congress-led government, have mellowed their stance in the wake of their failure to lure the crucial UF partners like Tamil Manila Congress, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Telugu Desam Party to its fold.

Kesri has told the UF negotiators -- V P Singh, Jyoti Basu and Harkishan Singh Surjeet--that he is willing to find a solution to the crisis only if Deve Gowda resigns before he seeks the confidence vote in Parliament.

But hectic talks have resulted in at least three compromise formulae that could help the Congress and UF cobble up a lose-knit coalition.

First is the Kesri formula that has still not made any headway among the UF partners. Kesri insists that Congress should be allowed to lead a coalition government as it is the single largest non-Bharatiya Janata Party in Parliament. Kesri has buttressed his demand with the argument that a Congress-led government will be more stable than a UF-headed coalition.

So far Kesri's only success has been that he managed to generate an anti-Deve Gowda mood in the Congress and he expects no rebellion within the Congress even though what his key challenger Sharad Pawar has up his sleeve is unclear.

The Congress chief's key advisors believe his greatest setback was that his bravado failed to entice important UF partners like the DMK, TDP and TMC to the idea of a Congress-led government.

The second formula envisages formation of a UF-led coalition minus Deve Gowda with the Congress joining the ministry. Most Congress MPs are said to favour the idea and are ready to accept some other UF leader as prime minister with the deputy prime ministership for the Congress.

Under this arrangement Kesri will be elevated to the Presidency when Dr Shankar Dayal Sharma's term ends in July.

The most acceptable UF leader -- both for its partners as well as the Congress -- to take over the premiership from Deve Gowda would be TMC chief Govindswamy Karupaiah Moopanar. Moopanar's asset is his proximity to Sonia Gandhi will make him an undisputed leader for all Congress sections.

But this formula is allergic to both V P Singh, who is leading the peace talks from Delhi's Apollo Hospital, and the Left parties for different reasons.

Singh has privately aired his fears of appointing Moopanar as Prime Minister as he believes that since the Tamil Nadu leader being very much a Congress politician, he could turn the tables against the UF in future.

"Singh thinks that Moopanar will change the UF-led coalition into a Congress government in course of time," one of the Raja's confidantes told Rediff On The NeT.

The Left's aversion to this arrangement is that a sizeable number of CPI and CPI-M leaders are opposed to sharing power with the Congress. CPI ministers in the Deve Gowda government -- Home Minister Indrajit Gupta and Agriculture Minister Chaturanan Mishra -- have informed the party leadership that they would prefer a mid-term poll rather than work together with Congress ministers.

But hectic political talks on Saturday centred on the third compromise formula conceived by V P Singh and West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu. Accordingly, the Congress should help the Deve Gowda government win the vote of confidence bext Friday as a gesture of goodwill.

Under this arrangement, once the UF regime overcomes this hurdle, the terms and conditions of Congress support could be renegotiated. For instance, the Congress could agree to be part of a coordination committee, which will formulate the government's policies and programmes.

But the Basu-Singh formula is unlikely to appeal too much to Kesri who now fears that failure of his mission to become prime minister will lead to his ouster as president of the All India Congress Committee.