Moopanar sniffs premiership

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

The Tamil Maanila Congress knows it will have to stand independent of the Congress if a mid-term poll is called. So it is giving all possible backing to the United Front and their local partner, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

Though the party has not finalised its strategy on what to do if Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda loses the vote of confidence in Parliament, the TMC has no course in such an eventuality than stick with the DMK.

Now that the Left has decided not to back any government in which Congress is a player, the recently-formed DMK-Telugu Desam Party-Asom Gana Parishad axis has found itself in a position to thwart any TMC move without trouble.

TMC leader G K Moopanar knows the numbers game well, especially since he was once a senior Congress functionary, he knows obstinacy on any part could result in an election. Naturally, he won't be the first to seek a break with the DMK.

The situation has also improved Moopanar's chance of becoming prime minister. With Deve Gowda and Kesri at loggerheads, the only universally acceptable leader to be prime minister is Moopanar. The TMC leader has long been advocating the inclusion of the Congress in the ministry, an issue taken up by Congress president Sitaram Kesri only recently.

Even if Deve Gowda is allowed to remain if only to stave off a mid-term election, the Congress will not be comfortable with him around anymore. Naturally, Moopanar appears to be the favourite.

The one stumbling block is Karunanidhi who has sworn allegiance to Deve Gowda, if only to ensure its electoral ally does not get too powerful and, therefore, dangerous, especially considering the euphoria his elevation will cause in Tamil Nadu. If Moopanar gets there, he will be doing something even his mentor, the late K Kamaraj could not.

The Congress could, of course, suggest some other candidate, like former prime minister Chandra Shekhar, who will be no threat in the saddle. But the DMK has not forgiven him for sacking their government in 1990. History, they fear, can always repeat itself.

The DMK has to decide between Moopanar and a mid-term poll. Should it go in for the latter, the TMC may have to tag along as it does not have the strength to take on the DMK and the All-India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam -- yet. This factor, it appears, may influence the course of national politics in the immediate future.