Commentary/Saisuresh Sivaswamy

It is now obvious that it was nothing but petty pique that has made Kesri stake his party's very future

Four days after his brave new words of unseating the United Front government and replacing it with his own, Congress president Sitaram Kesri is well on the way to eating his words. At least that's the inevitable conclusion one can draw from his bravado on Sunday, when he declared his party would stake its claim to form the next government, and the about turn on Wednesday/Thursday when he 'clarified' that his party would not be averse to continuing its support of the UF government provided H D Deve Gowda stepped down as prime minister.

This statement could alone cost him the moral high ground that he so earnestly tried to secure by claiming in his letter to the President of India that the central government had failed to uphold law which has resulted in a serious breakdown in law and order etc. It is now obvious that it was nothing but petty pique that has made him stake his party's very future, that his ire was not really against the government or over its performance, but against one individual -- presumably for various slights in the past, imagined or otherwise.

And if that were the case, why it all had to explode at this juncture is hard to explain; whether he thought that with the end of the financial year, a new account had to begin for his party, or whether this Easter would see his party's resurrection, one never knows.

Whatever the calculations behind his gross miscalculation, he obviously did not expect the United Front to either stay united after his bombshell or to put up a brave front. His advisers must have told him that the minute the letter was delivered to the President, Deve Gowda would have no choice but to resign -- and, after all, there have been precedents to this effect.

But the minute the United Front decided to call his bluff, he knew that he had been had, and there was only direction that he could move: backwards. Which he did promptly on Tuesday.

Three days later, with a week left for the government to prove its majority on the floor of the Lok Sabha, the deadlock persists. The Congress party has made its last offer, which has been roundly rejected by the United Front and its constituents. So what next?

If Kesri thought he was playing on the inherent insecurities among the coalition partners, Deve Gowda has obviously paid him back in the same coin. If Kesri thought that the UF constituents would be afraid of losing power, Deve Gowda has successfully shown up that when it comes to the crunch, Congressmen are more afraid of going back to the people once again. And this is whether that Old Fox of Indian politics, Vishwanath Pratap Singh, must be commended, for it was he who devised the strategy for the battle that Deve Gowda is fighting, even as he himself lies on a hospital bed undergoing dialysis. Obviously, it is only physical debility he suffer from, his mental faculties are as sharp as ever.

It is obvious now that in a week's time, before Parliament reconvenes for the all-important trust vote, there will be enormous pressure on Kesri from within his party to alter his rigid stance, if the United Front sticks to its guns. And poor man, he will be left with little choice but to turn around completely and support the government, for the alternative is elections which his party fears like nothing.

It is also a situation tailor-made for his foes, over like P V Narasimha Rao and covert like Sharad Pawar, who will press for his ouster from the Congress presidency even before the appointment has been ratified by the All India Congress Committee. If he is forced into eating humble pie by the equally humble farmer, Kesri will not have the moral authority to continue in his post.

Which, if one really mulls over it, is very surprising. It is inconceivable that someone like Kesri, who has spent more years in politics than most around him have on this earth, would not have thought through the consequences of his action when he decided to withdraw support to the government.

It seems equally inconceivable that his actions did not have the nod of Sonia Gandhi, who continues to exert tremendous behind-the-scenes influence over the Congress party's affairs. It seems equally possible that she may have consented to bail out Kesri if his action backfired. Thus, unless she steps out into the open, it is obvious that April 11 will see the political demise of the Congress president. For, assuming that the UF government falls, given the yawning gap between the Congress's strength in the Lok Sabha and the number it needs to muster a majority, there is little chance of it being to form the next government.

Yes, the Congress could win the trust vote if the Bharatiya Janata Party abstained from voting, but with the latter best placed in the event of a mid-term poll that scenario seems unlikely as well. And, even assuming that it puts together the numbers needed for a simple majority, the chances of the President inviting it seems more unlikely since it was the losing party in the previous elections.

But there is not much for the UF to gloat over either. For when this scenario is over with, it will have dawned on even the ordinary Congressman that it is the tail wagging the dog and not vice versa. If it was the wounded pride of one man who has put the UF through the hoop, it can be imagined what would happen if the average Congressman were piqued at how his party's nose had been ground to the dust by the UF. The fear over polls may in fact vanish in place of this pride, to be replaced by the will to teach the UF a lesson.

It is this that the alliance partners should watch for. Okay, the Congress will backtrack, but if the UF is interested in continuing with the present arrangement without further hiccups it should make some compromises to the Congress party, even if it means replacing the man at the helm. It has after all given the Congress a bloody nose in the fair fight, and there is no reason to further make it grovel in the dust.

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