Commentary/T V R Shenoy

One principle binds the Congress from top to bottom today: Power without polls

Ten months ago, I revealed my 'C-C Theory' in these columns. Briefly, I believe there is a direct relation between the Congress (the first 'C') and our Cricket Eleven (the second 'C').

Indira Gandhi's 1971 triumph went hand-in-hand with Wadekar's tour of the West Indies. And the Congress landslide of 1984 was neatly sandwiched between the World Cup victory for 1983 and the World Championship win of 1985. These are bad omens for the Congress.

At Bridgetown, Tendulkar's men chased 120 -- and lost. Now, the Congress is chasing 130. (They need 130 MPs more to reach the halfway mark of 272 in the Lok Sabha.) Can they make it?

That doesn't mean that United Front should be popping the champagne. Because history also says that no prime minister supported from outside has won a vote in the Lok Sabha when deserted by his principal ally.

The first one was Charan Singh in 1979. He came into office after splitting the Janata Party. But the bulk of the party was against him. The Choudhary turned to Indira Gandhi for aid. She gave it.

But Charan Singh never faced the Lok Sabha. The House met only to be informed that the prime minister was resigning. Indira Gandhi had withdrawn support from outside on the very day that the Lok Sabha was convened.

President Sanjeeva Reddy then dissolved the Lok Sabha. The result was outright victory for the Congress.

Eleven years later, it was V P Singh's turn. The National Front government was supported from outside by the BJP and the Left Front. When the BJP withdrew in disgust from the arrangement, Singh arranged to face the House, instead of resigning outright.

There was no general election after the fall of the V P Singh ministry. But the Chandra Shekhar ministry that followed had barely 60 MPs to its name, all defectors from V P Singh's party.

The Samajwadi Janata Dal rested squarely on the support from outside of Rajiv Gandhi's Congress. True to his heritage, Gandhi seized the first excuse that came to hand -- alleging that two cops were spying on him -- and withdrew support.

By this time, Rajiv Gandhi was a veteran at withdrawing support from outside. He had pulled the rug from under the Janaki faction of the AIADMK on the first day the Tamil Nadu assembly met.

The result of Chandra Shekhar's fall was the general election of 1991. The sympathy wave generated by Gandhi's death propelled the Congress to power, though without an absolute majority.

Not one of the three governments supported from outside could survive for even one year. V P Singh's eleven-month tenure was the longest of the lot. This explains the scepticism that greeted the birth of the United Front.

It was all very well for Narasimha Rao to pledge unconditional support. 'If this government falls,' he declared in the Lok Sabha, 'it won't be because the Congress withdraws support!'

Brave words! But no student of Congress history was impressed by such rubbish. Simply put, 'support from outside' falls to pass the test of self-interest. How did the Congress gain by supporting, say, the Telugu Desam, the Telugu Desam, the DMK, and the CPI?

Six months later, the cracks were visible. By then, the Congress had changed the terms of the arrangement. 'Unconditional support' had developed to 'issue-based support'. (Of course, the issues in question were never specified.)

True to form, the arrangement fell apart in well under a year. (V P Singh's eleven-month record is safe!)

Ah, but there is a difference between 1997 and the earlier withdrawals of support. On each of the previous occasions, the parties that backed out eagerly sought a general election.

They were right to do so. Indira Gandhi won an absolute majority after toppling Charan Singh. After bringing down V P Singh, the BJP increased its tally from 88 to 118. And the Congress climbed up from 193 to 225 after Chandra Shekhar went.

Note that none of these parties marched up Raisina Hill to hurry the President into giving them a chance. Quite the contrary -- they demanded that the people of India decide.

Today, however, Congressmen are desperately trying to avoid just that. Sitaram Kesri followed in Rajiv Gandhi's footsteps by bringing down a ministry in the Budget session, but he lacks the elan of the Gandhis, whether mother or son.

So does the rest of the party. One principle binds the Congress from top to bottom today: Power without polls.

The Congress knows it is on a sticky wicket. The fall of the cricket eleven is a bad omen. And fate has arranged for the Congress come-uppance on, you guessed it, the eleventh!

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