If Deve Gowda goes, whom will the DMK-TMC support? The BJP or the Congress?

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

With the initial surprise of Easter Sunday -- when the Congress withdrew support to the H D Deve Gowda government -- giving way to political pragmatism, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Tamil Maanila Congress are both exploring the possibilities for the future. While neither party plans to walk out of the United Front at this crucial hour, either or both parties may not be unwilling to back -- if not wholly participate -- in an alternative arrangement if Deve Gowda fails to win a vote of confidence on April 11.

While both the DMK and TMC swear by the Front, they are not blind to the political possibilities. Doubts have thus been expressed about the possibility of Deve Gowda winning the vote with the help of Congress dissidents led by Sharad Pawar and backed by the Narasimha Rao camp. Pawar and Co will have to wean away 86 Lok Sabha members of the party, or nearly two-thirds of the Congress's 144 MPs, to save the Deve Gowda ministry from collapse.

"This would mean that the splinter group will be recognised as the official Congress and will get the mascot and symbol that a leader like Pawar would not like to forego, but the question is whether he will be able to do the trick?" asks a TMC source. "Will the Congress dissidents come out in the open, and lead others from the front, if they are not sure of victory?"

Failure could mean the marginalisation of the dissidents which process Kesri has already set in motion by not taking them into confidence before withdrawing support to the Front. The rebels could also attract action under the anti-defection law. "Who is to bell the cat is the question before the Congress dissidents," says the TMC source.

Against this, the Congress will require the backing of 123 United Front MPs to reach the magic figure of 272 to form a government. This would imply that the party would require almost all the 133-member non-Leftist bloc within the Front. The Leftists, who number 53 MPs, are expected to stay away from both the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party in any attempt to form a government.

Though the numbers do not add up, the Kesri camp expects Deve Gowda to lose the vote on April 11. It will then set the process in motion for working out an alternative arrangement. "Obviously, the Congress expects us all to come around and support it then, with or without sharing power, or face an election," says the afore-quoted TMC source.

Where does the DMK and the TMC stand? For starters, they would stick to the United Front without hesitation, but may go their own ways if the government were to fall despite their best intentions and efforts. It is in such a scenario that TMC sources foresee the possibility of their supremo G Karupaiah Moopanar being nominated to head a new government, again supported by the Congress with better-defined positions on power-sharing and policies.

This could mean the Congress sharing power with other United Front partners, with the already embarrassed Communist Party of India joining the CPI-Marxist to support the government from outside. Which support in any case, a Congress-UF coalition will not require.

What is also not being ruled out is the BJP staking its claim to form a government in the event of Deve Gowda losing the vote. In the company of its newly-found ally, the Bahujan Samaj Party, which has 11 members in the Lok Sabha, the BJP phalanx -- which also includes the Samata Party and the Shiv Sena, commands the backing of 204 MPs, much more than what the Congress has now. The President may be hard-pressed to find reasons for rejecting the BJP claim.

The BJP would require only 68 MPs to form a government, which it could try and obtain by enlisting some of the regional constituents of the United Front.

Sources in the DMK and TMC recall the speculation last May that their respective parties would support the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government. There was no great criticism of such a move then, and now, given the circumstances, the two parties may not dismiss a BJP request in this regard without adequate consideration.