In Delhi's political game, the numbers just don't add up

George Iype in New Delhi

The hectic political parleys to cobble up the next coalition government have not thrown up the magical number of 272 for both the Congress and the United Front partners to stake an effective claim to form the government.

After the withdrawal of Congress support to the UF government headed by Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda, key political players engaged in the game of permutations and combinations have the arithmetic all against them: The numbers just do not add up.

The UF is now left with 186 MPs and it needs another 86 MPs to reach the figure of 272 for a simple majority in the current 543 member Lok Sabha.

Deve Gowda's crisis managers like Communist Party of India- Marxist general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet and Civil Aviation Minister Chand Mahal Ibrahim have been hoping to engineer a split in the Congress.

Surjeet and Ibrahim separately met the anti-Kesri leader, Sharad Pawar, on Tuesday night. What transpired at these meetings is not fully known, but Deve Gowda's troubleshooters are putting a lot of pressure on Pawar to help the UF continue in power.

Sources said Pawar and other Kesri opponents will display a facade of Congress unity for a few more days. "If Kesri shows symptoms of failing in his mission, do you think Pawar will keep quiet?" one Congress leader asked, revealing that the Pawar camp is now assessing ''the number of reliable Congress MPs who will support him."

What has become clear in the past three days is that if the Congress leadership sticks to its decision, the UF government will be defeated in Parliament on April 11 as Deve Gowda's partners are not ready for any alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party.

But Kesri's initial bravado is fading fast as he does not come anywhere close to the 272 mark to win the numbers game. The Congress and its allies have 143 MPs and Kesri's failure to muster the necessary strength will lead to his exit as Congress president sooner than later.

Political insiders believe that under any circumstances Kesri's share of MPs from the UF coalition will not exceed 71 as the only allies he can expect are the Tamil Maanila Congress (20), the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (17), and the Samajwadi Party (17). The Left and the Asom Gana Parishad are dead against joining the Congress. And that leaves Kesri without much hope.

The BJP, the single largest party in Lok Sabha, also remains stuck at 162. But with its allies -- the Akali Dal, the Haryana Vikas Party, the Samata Party and the Shiv Sena -- its tally goes up to 193. Still, the BJP and its allies are short of 79 seats.

But the BJP is said to be targeting the AGP and Telugu Desam Party as possible allies. Both parties have so far shown any interest in defecting from the UF coalition. Even if they defect, the AGP's 5 MPs and the TDP's 17 MPs will not help the BJP reach the magic figure.

By virtue of its alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party, the BJP tally may go up to 226 seats, but that will not still help it to form a government.