The long-range forecast of the Indian Meteorological Department for rain this year is normal.

Addressing a media conference in New Delhi, IMD Director General S K Shrivastava said his organisation has every reason to believe that the monsoon will arrive in India on time. The exact dates, however, he said would be known only in the last week of May.

Shrivastava said the south-west monsoon is likely to be 100 per cent of the long period average with an error of + or - 5 per cent.

"This year our scientific models have given the rare figure of 100 per cent of the average rainfall for the monsoon season," Shrivastava said and added that "the forecast is based on the newly-adopted eight-parameter model."

A normal monsoon means a national average of 88 cm. Last year the country had received 102 per cent of this normal figure, Shrivastava said.

There are only very low chances of rainfall sliding below normal, he said.