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What was Musharraf doing in Moscow?
February 07, 2003
'We need to start with a clean slate in our bilateral relationship. We need to reinforce the good of the past and bury the bad.'
So declared a beaming Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf at a joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin after a historic-three day visit to Moscow which ended February 6.
The 'bad' Musharraf wants to bury includes Pakistan's sponsoring -- or rather co-sponsoring with the US -- the Mujahideen who forced the then Soviet Union out of Afghanistan in 1989.
It includes sponsoring the Taliban, which brought the Islamic movement right up to Russian borders. And inside it, with the Taliban clearly linked to the Muslim rebels in Chechnya.
Surely Musharraf remembers apart from being a long-time military ally of India, Putin publicly cast aspersions on the general's ability to control and protect his nuclear weapons.
While no major Russian or Soviet leader has ever visited Pakistan, the only Pakistani leaders to have visited Moscow before Musharraf were Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in the 1970s and Nawaz Sharif in May 1999, months before he was ousted by Musharraf.
So what brings Musharraf and Putin together? And what does it mean for India?
To understand Putin's compulsions is easy.
First, he has been religiously trying to assert Moscow's ties with its neighbours in an attempt to offset the growing US influence in the region. Ever since he took charge in May 2000, he has lobbied tirelessly to ensure Russia's visibility on the world stage.
Improving ties with Pakistan is a big part of this plan. Both are active members of the US-led crusade against terrorism. Both share a growing concern about US plans to invade Iraq.
Two, Putin knows Russia's (and his) stature will soar through the roof if he can get India and Pakistan to talk, something the Americans with all their influence have failed to do so far.
His last attempt to do this, perhaps with American collusion, was at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia in Almaty last June, at a time when New Delhi and Islamabad amassed their troops on the border. But India refused to indulge in any discussions until there was an end to cross border terror.
Three, it sends out a subtle but clear message to India that Moscow is not averse to building ties with Islamabad if India continues to replace ageing Russian military equipment with American, French and European weapons.
As for Musharraf, he was obviously more than eager to jump at Moscow's willingness to improve ties, particularly after the first meeting of the Pakistan-Russia Joint Working Group on Counter-terrorism in Moscow in December.
This was Musharraf's third meeting with Putin. The first was a brief meeting at the UN headquarters in New York in 2001, and the second one at Almaty in June 2002, where he responded positively to Putin's efforts to bring New Delhi to the negotiating table.
Worried about long time ally China's growing ties with India, Musharraf too has launched a diplomatic initiative to befriend its neighbours, particularly Iran and Russia. In fact, Musharraf's visit to Moscow comes just months after Iranian President Mohammad Khatami to Islamabad.
Also, a possible defence agreement with Moscow would offset the problems Islamabad would face in case the US decided to cut off its military assistance to Pakistan.
Ar the same time, apart from earning him badly needed brownie points on the domestic front, the Moscow visit would show the world that Musharraf was exploring all avenues to make New Delhi talk to him.
'President Putin is the best placed person... to play a role in improving relations with India,' he said after talks with Russian officials.
However, he denied having formally asked Moscow to mediate, saying 'We both clearly understand you cannot clap with one hand. Both parties have to accept mediation.'
Putin, who personally briefed and reassured Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee both before and after his meeting with Musharraf, made no bones about the fact that while he was not averse to friendlier ties with Islamabad, he was unwilling to let that impinge on Moscow's traditional ties with New Delhi.
He followed this up by publicly announcing he had asked Musharraf to stop the influx of Islamic terrorists into India.
But New Delhi needs to remember the Musharraf visit is built on growing interactions between Russia and Pakistan.
In 2001, Russia agreed to deliver 16 MI-17 military transport helicopters worth $50 million to Pakistan. Indian efforts to stop the delivery were foiled by a clause in the agreement which would force Moscow to pay millions of dollars as compensation if the pact was violated. Putin finally personally ordered their delivery.
This time, Musharraf returns with a small bouquet of understandings, chief among a $100 million MOU for the Karachi Steel Mills, a jointly run effort that was on the verge of collapse. Other deals propose cooperation in sectors like oil and gas sector and space technology.
Incidentally, Pakistan's second satellite, Badr II, which some describe as a 'spy' satellite, was launched aboard a Russian rocket from Kazakhstan in December 2001. Pakistan is yet to acquire satellite launch technology.
But if he was hoping to augment defence ties this time, Musharraf returned disappointed.
In fact, unconfirmed reports say Moscow categorically rejected Musharraf's second request to sell the Patriot class S-300 anti-missile system to Pakistan. The request had first been made during the December meeting of the JWG on strategic stability. At that time, Russian officials were quoted as saying Pakistan was yet to acquire the 'trust' necessary for such a sale.
Does India have cause to worry? Not just yet.
Musharraf's tentative attempts to befriend Moscow are unlikely to give ulcers to New Delhi's mandarins who know the depth and scope of the Indo-Russian relationship.
It is only if the relationship takes on a strong military angle that the red flags will come up in South Block. And that is something even the Pakistanis concede is unlikely anytime soon.
Ramananda Sengupta