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D Jose in Thiruvananthapuram
Conversions from other faiths have more or less ceased in Kerala's Syrian Christian community since 1961, according to a study by the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.
The study, entitled 'The Syrian Christians of Kerala: Demographic and socio-economic transition in the twentieth century', says the Syrian Christians, who constitute nearly half of the state's six million Christian population, are heading towards a zero or even negative population growth regime.
The study, conducted by well-known demographer K C Zachariah, suggests that the community might experience the 'Parsi syndrome' in coming decades.
The findings are contrary to the apprehensions expressed by members of the Sangh Parivar that Christians in Kerala are swelling their ranks through conversions.
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has engaged leaders of the community in a series of dialogues on the issue in the last couple of years. Though the Christians have denied conversions, the RSS appears unconvinced.
The study, based on census statistics, data compiled by the Church in Kerala, and data from the Kerala Migration Survey conducted by the CDS in 1998, might help set these apprehensions about conversions at rest.
Apart from Syrian Christians, the non-Syrian Christians, especially the Latin Christians, have also started showing signs of a decline in their numbers. The study found that the share of Latin Christians in the total population of the state had declined from 9.5 per cent in 1981 to 9.1 per cent in 2001.
Besides the absence of conversions, the other major factors attributed to the decline in population growth among Syrian Christians is a steep decline in natural increase on account of relatively higher acceptance of family planning methods and higher out-migration.
Syrian Christians constituted 75 per cent of all Christians in the state at the beginning of the twentieth century. Their share declined steadily and reached just about 50 per cent at the turn of this century.
The Syrian Christians had a growth rate higher than that of non-Christians in the early part of the twentieth century, but by 1961 the Syrians lost out and the non-Christians gained the upper hand. The non-Christians maintained higher growth rates through the rest of the century. So much so that in the last decade of the twentieth century, the growth rate of Syrian Christians was only a third that of the non-Christians, the study found.
Overall, the proportion of Syrian Christians in the total population has declined from 13 to 9.5 per cent. The decline, according to the researcher, is likely to diminish the political clout the community has enjoyed in the state. This calls for a change in its mind-set of depending on the government for each and every thing.
Besides this, the demographic transition has thrown up new concerns. The major concerns are women outnumbering men, a rapid rise in the population of the elderly, and the steady decline in the number of children.
The swelling older population has emerged as a major challenge for the community, which was traditionally concerned with only children and youth. That was when 40 per cent of the population comprised children and the elderly accounted for less than 4 per cent.
While children now constitute only 25 per cent of the total population, the population of the elderly has risen to 10 per cent. What's more, the study projects a rise in the numbers of the elderly to 25 per cent by the end of the first quarter of the present century and has called for long-term planning and investment to cope with the situation.
The study is part of a forthcoming book by Zachariah on the demographic history of the Syrian Christians of Kerala during a 200-year period starting 1801.
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