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To improve its performance in the upcoming Jammu and Kashmir assembly election, the Bharatiya Janata Party allied with the Jammu State Morcha, a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh front. But trouble soon began when the Morcha declared candidatures for six seats, which are seen as BJP strongholds.
The Morcha, formed after the RSS adopted a resolution in February calling for the trifurcation of J&K, is contesting the polls on the plank of creation of a separate Jammu state.
Most of the leaders of the Morcha, including chairman Shri Kumar, co-chairman and candidate for Jammu West seat Virender Gupta, and candidate for Jammu East seat Tilak Raj Sharma, have their moorings in the RSS.
To solve the issue of seat-sharing, talks, supervised by the RSS, were held between the BJP and Morcha in New Delhi. The Morcha was demanding 19 to 20 seats, but the BJP was willing to part with only 8 or 10.
The Morcha has agreed to contest from 12 to 15 seats in the Jammu region, RSS spokesman Ram Madhav said on Monday.
However, there is still bickering over the issue of the two key seats of Jammu East and West, which have traditionally been BJP strongholds.
The Morcha announced candidates for these two and four other important seats, which irked the BJP. To add fuel to the fire, the Morcha remained adamant on not withdrawing its candidates and expressed its readiness to fight the BJP if it fielded anyone on those seats.
"Out of the six seats in question, the main fight is on Jammu West and East seats. We will not withdraw our candidates and if the BJP does not agree we will still contest," Gupta told rediff.com
State BJP spokesman Nirmal Singh said that the Morcha had enough sense to withdraw from the constituencies from where the BJP fielded a candidate.
But the BJP state unit chief, D K Kotwal, maintained that the seat-sharing agreement was not yet final.
"[The] Morcha has already backed out of one constituency, Vijaypur, where the BJP has announced its candidate. Talks are still on and there can be further changes. There is a lot of speculation on at the moment," he said.
"Since the BJP and the RSS-backed Morcha have the same voter bank, they are trying to avoid any confrontation," he added.
The Morcha said that the BJP would have to concede to its demands given the poor state of its affairs in Jammu. "The BJP came forward to join us on the plank of a separate state [for Jammu] because of its own political compulsions. It is finding it tough to go alone and has to be realistic, especially after the defeat of its candidate in Jammu-Poonch parliamentary seat elections," Gupta asserted.
In the Jammu-Poonch election, the winning National Conference candidate had fetched around 60,000 votes more than the BJP candidate.
But observers believe that the BJP's poor record in the state is just one aspect of why it allied with the Morcha. The other reason, they say, is that the BJP wants to cash in on the trifurcation demand, which harps of "freeing Jammu from Kashmiri Muslim domination".
"We entered into an alliance with the JSM as certain things were common between us. We believe the NC and Congress are responsible for the trifurcation slogan, as they did not give enough attention to Jammu," Kotwal told rediff.com
The BJP has not made clear its stand on the trifurcation demand. "We have neither accepted it nor rejected it. The BJP J&K unit is not rejecting it but we have to go according to our centre command policy, which has not accepted it," he added.
"There is discontent and a sense of hurt regional pride in Jammu region. Since the power shift from Jammu-based Maharaja to Sheikh Abdullah-led Kashmiri leadership in the post-partition era, Jammu's demand for regional autonomy has been constantly neglected by the state government. The communal forces raising the demand are becoming one of the outlets for Jammu's discontent and want to cash on it," noted political analyst Balraj Puri said.
The going, however, will be tough for the combine, as it hardly has any influence in the Muslim-dominated Rajouri, Poonch and Doda districts of Jammu region, where there are very few takers for the trifurcation demand.
"There is little support for the demand there at the moment. But it will hopefully grow with time," said Singh, the state BJP spokesman.
There is also a big question mark on the possibility of formation of a separate Jammu state. For any such reorganisation, the assembly has to pass a bill in its favour. But it is very unlikely that the Morcha or the BJP, which has just 8 seats in the assembly, will be able muster the numbers.
"The political aspirations of Jammu were never fulfilled. Our culture, our history, languages are different. Plus the Kashmiri leadership always discriminated against us. So we demand a separate state and if the Centre appreciates our aspirations, it is not very difficult," Gupta said.
The trifurcation of the state can bring back the memories of partition, observers believe. "It would lead to lead to bloodshed and rioting. Who would guarantee the safety of Hindus in Muslim majority districts and that of Muslims in Hindu majority districts? It is not an answer to Jammu's grievances," said Puri.
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