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Kashmir appears heading for a repeat of 1996 election

The Union government is groping in the dark as its strategies to ensure a popular and peaceful election in Jammu & Kashmir have all run aground.

New Delhi's half-hearted attempts to get the separatists, primarily the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference, to participate in the four-phase election in September-October have failed to make a breakthrough.

On Saturday, the Hurriyat ruled out its participation in the election.

It appears that even as the number of the Centre's Kashmir interlocutors is going up, the enthusiasm among the separatists for the election is dying.

A senior government representative involved in Kashmir affairs admitted, "Our years of spadework don't seem to have paid much dividend. We are almost back to square one."

The official said the election looked set to be a "repeat of the 1996 effort", with the ruling National Conference "all set to return".

Informally, officials admit that the lack of a clear focus, concerted attempts to negotiate with the separatists, and the failure to get Pakistan to end infiltration completely are responsible for the current dismal scenario.

A senior official said that if the coercive diplomacy exercise had worked, "we would have seen a clear end to infiltration, but it is only shooting up".

He said the massed troops on the border had outlived their utility as an instrument of coercive diplomacy and "we have to look at the next step, including how to bring them back to peace positions".

Though India "managed to win large-scale international support for the J&K election, it has not translated into Pakistani actions [to end infiltration]", he lamented. In fact, sources said that between August 1 and 8, the army foiled as many as five infiltration attempts. Already there are indications that violence will escalate during the election, especially attacks on politicians.

The failure to end infiltration is not the only problem. "There are too many negotiators," complained a senior official, who himself is involved in informal consultations with the separatists.

In fact, the attempt by the prime minister office to win over at least some of the separatists was making big strides until the second fortnight of May. But on May 21, Abdul Ghani Lone was murdered and all the liberals among the separatists ran for cover. "The murder sent out a warning to the others," the official admitted.

A S Dulat, officer on special duty in the PMO and a former head of the Research and Analysis Wing, had till then cultivated an admirable network among the separatists. He had been in touch with almost all of them and some officials insist he would have "achieved some breakthrough" if not for Lone's murder and "a couple of other developments".

What made the situation worse was the Centre's failure to impose governor's rule in Jammu & Kashmir before the election dates were announced. The ruling Abdullah family effectively used Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's statement in Lucknow that governor's rule was under consideration to scuttle the PMO's entire J&K strategy.

Under the original plan, Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah was to be inducted into the Union government as a Cabinet minister even as the state was placed under governor's rule. "Now governor's rule has become a thorny issue," admitted another official. "Any further arm-twisting will give the NC unnecessary leverage and an election issue."

With Lone's murder and the National Conference's rigidity blocking Dulat's path, Home Minister Lal Kishenchand Advani, newly promoted to deputy prime minister, stepped in. Officials in the know admit that there is a clear divide between the PMO led by National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra and Advani on Kashmir.

Advani appointed a senior Border Security Force officer to co-ordinate the deployment of paramilitary forces for the election and Bharatiya Janata Party spokesman Arun Jaitley to negotiate with the National Conference on autonomy. Sources say one of Jaitley's key tasks is to get Farooq Abdullah to agree to governor's rule.

Jaitley's appointment and the resultant importance given to Abdullah's autonomy demand have not gone down too well with the PMO. But going a step further with his own action plan, Advani authorized former Union law minister Ram Jethmalani's Kashmir Committee to negotiate with the separatists.

Officials, however, see a fundamental problem with Jethmalani's committee. The separatists do not trust Advani as they do Vajpayee. They see him as a rigid right-winger, not exactly the right qualification for making any forward movement in Kashmir.

Jethmalani faltered not just in identifying with the home minister even before negotiations with the Hurriyat could begin, but also in casually claiming that the organisation was not completely averse to an election. This has made the separatists even more cautious in dealing with him.

The home ministry and Jethmalani's committee are trying to get the Election Commission to reconsider its position and put off polling by at least a couple of months, so they get more time to negotiate.

But matters do not appear too bright as of now, with New Delhi unable to offer a concrete dialogue process to the separatists or impose governor's rule. This has forced even the remaining liberals among the separatists such as Shabir Shah to toughen their stand and reject the election.

Jammu and Kashmir Elections 2002: The complete coverage

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