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Jayalalitha juggernaut gets rolling

AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha has gone on the offensive, with confidence rarely seen in a politician fighting with her back to the wall for five years, even as her rival and prospective allies are scrambling for strategies to face the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.

Some say that she has nothing to lose and everything to gain from hitting out at her foes and friends alike, now that she is on the election mode, ahead of others. Others see it as a natural extension of her basic character of putting others on the defensive while dealing with her.

If there is anything that has stirred the electoral scenario, not just in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, but also where polls are due in West Bengal, Kerala and Assam, it is Jayalalitha's premature decision to woo the PMK from the Bharatiya Janata Party-National Democratic Alliance at the Centre.

It is a repeat of Jayalalitha's 1998 act, when she joined hands with the BJP, making waves across the nation and conferring greater acceptability on the 'communal' party.

The current move has left the ruling DMK rival in Tamil Nadu scrambling for new allies and tickled the Congress and Tamil Maanil Congress allies into re-avowing their loyalty to her leadership in the state.

Coming as it does after her meetings with journalist-friend Cho S Ramaswamy, there is no denying an undercurrent of suspicion lurking at the cadre-level in the DMK, on the sincerity of the BJP ally, in the state and at the Centre.

Thus, chances of the AIADMK wanting to move closer to the BJP in the post-poll scenario, particularly if the party returns to power in the state, cannot be wished away, as Jayalalitha may now command the loyalty of 15 parliamentarians from the state, including five of the PMK, against the DMK's 11 Lok Sabha members.

Jayalalitha's strategy seems to be based on the old MGR theory of not wanting to hurt the party in power at the Centre. Morarji Desai, Charan Singh and Indira Gandhi had his support when they were prime ministers. The first Dravidian party ministers at the Centre were MGR's nominees in the short-lived Charan Singh Government.

After creating problems for herself and her Congress ally, when P V Narasimha Rao was at the helm, Jayalalitha can now expected to keep the Centre on her right side, particularly considering the court cases and investigations she is facing.

That Jayalalitha has thought out for the PMK is also becoming increasingly clear. PMK founder S Ramdoss has repeatedly been declaring his opposition only to the DMK leadership of the NDA in the state, and is all praise for Prime Minister A B Vajpayee. Should a situation arise where the PMK needed to move close to the BJP all over again, in the company of the AIADMK, any possible defeat of the DMK in the assembly polls, should provide the cause.

As the party wanting to rule Pondicherry, the PMK too needs the Centre's blessings, whichever party is in power.

If Jayalalitha's strategy has forced the traditional DMK parent rival onto the defensive, and publicly urging the TMC to join the ruling combine time and again, she has put the prospective TMC ally and also the Congress partner on the defensive. That is besides the Left, which sees in Jayalalitha the last bastion to bust the communal BJP, wilfully forgetting her association with the party, and also her revived communication through Cho and some others.

To that end, Jayalalitha has made all allies eat out of her hands. To the principled Left, the PMK is no more a casteist outfit, which it has condemned all along, and even the Congress is willing to side-step the Rajiv Gandhi assassination issue, given the PMK's continued support for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. The same applies to the TMC.

It is not just Jayalalitha's decision to align with the PMK that matters, but the confidence with which she has gone about it without consulting allies, that has made them all uncomfortable.

It is in this context that Jayalalitha's strategy seems to have paid off. As AIADMK sources pointed out, the Congress and the TMC, which were seeking a share in power in Tamil Nadu before the PMK joined the combine, is now fighting for a rightful place in the alliance.

The Congress is now on the defensive, seeking to retain chief ministership in Pondicherry, which the PMK has been eyeing. Likewise, the TMC has been driven to the wall, not talking any more about power-sharing, but a rightful share of seats.

"It was a carefully calculated move aimed at forcing the TMC to reconsider its decision to stay on in the AIADMK, on Jayalalitha's terms," said an AIADMK leader. "The bus is waiting for them. It is already more than half full and will keep rolling on, if only to keep ahead of the race. If the TMC wants, let them join, we have more comfortable seats for them than others. If not, they will have to find their own way. The AIADMK juggernaut will not wait endlessly for them."

It is in this context that Jayalalitha's decision to come out early with the first list of party nominees assumes added significance.

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