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Government will survive, holds BJP

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

Union Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha's inflexibility on budgetary rollbacks and some ruling coalition partners' insistence on them are like "tiffs between spouses" -- after the initial disagreement, peace will prevail and the family will live on happily.

Or so claims the Bharatiya Janata Party. Its leadership does not think that the recent pressure on the government by its allies for rolling back the prices of urea and food grains like wheat and rice distributed through the public distribution system will have dangerous consequences.

"There are two dozen-odd parties in our National Democratic Alliance and it is natural that disagreements crop up among them sometimes," said BJP general secretary Narendra Modi. "But to say that our allies will pull down the government because of these, is too much to swallow. No such thing will happen. The government will last its full, five-year term."

BJP vice-president K Jana Krishnamurthy scoffed when asked whether the survival of the NDA government was at stake because of the price rollback issue.

"I am afraid I have bad news for those praying for this government's demise. Such fervent hopes have been expressed ever since it assumed office. Agreed that occasional disagreements occur among us, but does that mean we are going to fall apart?" he asked.

"The truth is that the Opposition is getting increasingly worried on the government's achievements so far. That is why it sees a ghost in every nook and corner," Krishnamurthy added.

BJP spokesman Venkaiah Naidu was even more vociferous. "You see, the Opposition lacks any coherent or credible issue. They latched on to the RSS issue in Gujarat but we have settled it now and so they are agitating over the NDA government in Bihar.

"And now again they seem to imagine that our allies are angry with us on some issues and that they will vote against the government on some important issues including the Finance Bill. This is preposterous because all differences are going to be ironed out amicably and grievances, if any, will be sorted out," he contended.

However, these leaders' claims does not appear too assuring. The coalition partners have shown that they will not go along on controversial issues, especially those that affect their electorate.

On March 7, almost a dozen allies of the BJP-led government had served an ultimatum to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to roll back the prices of wheat and rice distributed through the public distribution system. These were hiked as per the new budget.

Vajpayee had then suggested that they should meet the finance minister to sort out the issue but Sinha reportedly not only stuck to his guns but let it be known that he would not roll back the prices.

The main grouse of the ruling coalition partners is that Sinha bypassed them while finalising the budget. They conveyed to the prime minister that his party should not take their support for granted, their patience should not be tested.

Deputy leader of the Janata Dal-United parliamentary party Devendra Prasad Yadav, close to party chief Sharad Yadav, had threatened to pull down the Vajpayee government by voting against it on crucial issues. He underlined that his party had voted against the government on the Uniform Civil Code and would repeat the act if the BJP leaders remained unflinching on vital issues.

Telugu Desam Party Lok Sabha MP Yerram Naidu pointed out that the erstwhile United Front coalition government headed by H D Deve Gowda had always consulted its allies before raising the prices of essential commodities and the Vajpayee government should do the same.

"Otherwise, you cannot clap with a single hand," Naidu warned the BJP leadership, indicating that the TDP, like its other allies, would not tolerate "unilateral decisions."

The Trinamul Congress of Railway Minister Mamta Banerjee had warned on Wednesday that the Centre should have the Gujarat government order, which enables its employees to join the RSS, rescinded. That was done, but the allies have now mounted pressure to reduce the recent price hike.

Should the BJP's allies decide to vote against the government, the possibility of the Vajpayee government being defeated on the floor of the Lok Sabha becomes quite distinct. In the Lok Sabha's total strength of 543 members, there are two vacancies.

The BJP has 183 members, the TDP 29, the JD (U) 22, the Shiv Sena 14, the DMK 12, BJD 10, TC 8, INLD 5, PMK 5, MDMK 4 and NC 4. This takes the NDA to a combined strength of 296 in the lower house of Parliament.

On the Opposition benches are the Congress with 113 seats, the CPM with 33, the Samajwadi Party 25, the BSP 14, the RJD 7, the NCP 8, CPI 4, RSP 3 AIFB 2 MIL 1 CPI (M-L) 1, JD (Secular ) 1. Total strength: 212.

The other seats belong to smaller parties and independents.

Thus, in the house of 543, the NDA would be needing a strength of at least 272 seats for a simple majority.

However, were the NDA constituents to carry out their threat of pulling down the government, it would take only the TDP with 29 seats and the JD (U) with 22 to withdraw support on any crucial parliamentary issue. This is the traumatic scenario which the BJP leaders want to avoid at all costs.

Party vice-president Jagdish Prasad Mathur pointed out that for the BJP and its allies to reach a meeting point on the issue of the recent price hike, both sides would have to make partial climb-downs.

"That is the only honourable way out," Mathur said.

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