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The Swadeshi Jagran Manch won't win the larger war

There have been three significant meetings in the past week. A special committee set up by Sonia Gandhi met to consider whether the Congress should continue to support the policy of economic liberalisation begun by its own government in 1991. Second, the prime minister met Farooq Abdullah to resolve the problems caused by the Jammu and Kashmir assembly's demand for autonomy. Finally, a selection of Bharatiya Janata Party leaders met a delegation from the Swadeshi Jagran Manch.

The first and the last are obviously related. When the two largest parties in India discuss basic economic issues, it is a matter of concern to everybody. That said, let me begin with the second issue -- 'autonomy.'

The prime minister has adopted a very sensible stance, in marked contrast to the hysteria of the Congress. While stressing that there can be no return to the pre-1953 situation, he hasn't closed any doors when it comes to discussing decentralisation at large. Interestingly, the same Farooq Abdullah who spoke of 1953 as a benchmark just a few weeks ago now says that he is looking for a solution fit for 2000!

The issues raised by Farooq Abdullah are questions for debate on the long-term future of India. Economic issues, basic bread and butter topics, are however, matters of slightly more immediate concern to everyone.

The Congress is uncomfortable with the implications of economic liberalisation. I have often said that the Narasimha Rao government was not really the author of economic reform. In 1991 India was in no position to withstand the demands of the international lending agencies. That said, it is disturbing to see how eager Congressmen are to jettison reforms.

What are the practical implications of this hesitation? Let me remind you of what I wrote a week ago -- a fertiliser plant in Haldia that is yet to produce a grain of fertilizer in 21 years. Over Rs. 1,400 crore of tax money has gone down the drain because of this project. It is, in other words, an ideal candidate for being closed down, privatised, or subjected to any treatment that would take it off our backs.

Nevertheless, the Congress is bitterly opposed to taking any sensible measures in Haldia. Please remember now that this plant is only one of many, all products of the mad rush to implement "socialism." If the Congress chooses to make such a hue and cry over a thousand men in Haldia, can you imagine the brouhaha the party will raise when it comes to more prominent industries?

The Bharatiya Janata Party seems more committed to economic reforms than the Congress. (This is not surprising; the party, going back to its Jan Sangh days, has always protested against the dirigiste policies favoured by Nehru and his successors.) But doubts continued to persist, which is why the meetings with the Swadeshi Jagran Manch attracted a certain amount of interest in business quarters.

I understand why the Swadeshi Jagran Manch is perturbed. As I understand, it isn't against liberalisation per se, but only against foreigners entering the country without hinderance. I am afraid India doesn't have the luxury of waiting too long. I know of more than one multinational which complains of the tardy process of getting a decision implemented in India and then choosing to open a plant in, say, China or South East Asia.

Several ministers share these concerns. They empathise with the Swadeshi Jagran Manch, but rolling back reforms, or even the pace of reforms, would be irresponsible according to them. I am not sure what the results of the meeting between the Bharatiya Janata Party ministers and their fellows in the Swadeshi Jagran Manch shall be -- except perhaps in the policy on salt.

For several years now, the law has stated that only iodised salt can be sold. (This is perhaps the cheapest defence against goitre.) The Swadeshi Jagran Manch feels that the chief beneficiaries are large firms, perhaps multinationals. It is pushing for a relaxation of the norm for smaller units. Given a choice, I think even the relatively less well-off would prefer to spend an extra rupee or two for the iodised variety. So far from helping the small-scale sector, this could push it into oblivion.

Be that as it may, some symbolic gestures aside, I think the Swadeshi Jagran Manch won't win the larger war. Economic reforms are now a fact of life. Whether that is good or bad is something that only time will tell.

T V R Shenoy