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DMK watches BJP's seat-sharing talks with interest

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu is watching the BJP's seat-sharing talks with its NDA allies in Bihar, Orissa and Haryana with interest, since the state assembly polls next year. The party is particularly worried since its one-time ally, the Tamil Maanila Congress, is tying up with its rival, the All-India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam for next month's by-elections in three assembly constituencies.

"The BJP seems to be driving a tough bargain with its allies, going by reports, and against earlier expectations," says a second-line DMK leader. Others are careful not to talk in public, lest it upset the NDA apple-cart.

"There seems to be a growing restlessness in the BJP, to capture power in the states, in preparation for ditching the allies at the national level, instead of strengthening the NDA at the Centre and institutionalising coalition politics, as claimed."

In this context, he refers to the unilateral decisions the BJP took regarding allies, "be it in ditching Bansi Lal in Haryana or sidelining Ramakrishna Hegde in Karnataka. Now, it seems to prefer the JD-U to the Samta Party in Bihar, and has driven harder bargains in Orissa and Haryana, before yielding to more stable and stubborn allies," he said.

He says the BJP's belligerence and its ambitions, possibly based on a long-term plan to fill the anti-Congress slot now occupied in most states by their NDA allies, is worrying. And things haven't been helped by the TMC-AIADMK tie-up.

Just a few days before TMC president G K Moopanar had announced that his party would back the AIADMK in next month's assembly by-elections, DMK supremo and state Chief Minister M Karunanidhi had expressed his confidence in the party. This, despite they having parted ways for the Lok Sabha elections last year.

"The TMC may not be a 'friendly party' any more, but it certainly is a 'friend's party'," Karunanidhi had said, referring to his continued mutual regard for Moopanar.

The BJP has been circumspect in its reaction to the TMC decision, but Pattali Makkal Katchi founder S Ramadoss has been more forthright.

"This is what Karunanidhi gets for placating the TMC," he said. The PMK had hoped to use the TMC card to get a better deal from the DMK in the assembly elections.

"Now with the TMC opting for the AIADMK-Congress coalition, the PMK, which also has the potential of tilting 'marginal constituencies', is stuck with the DMK and can't bargain," says one party strategist.

But the DMK now needs the BJP as much as BJP does it.

The BJP and the TMC have been aiming for the same segment of urbanised middle-class voter. The BJP is worried that these voters may vote for the TMC in the upcoming elections though they backed the BJP in the parliamentary polls of 1998 and 1999. Party leaders agree that the 'Moopanar for chief minister' card has some 'swing potential', if not as much as the 'Vajpayee for prime minister' card that had worked earlier.

But since estimates say the BJP now has a decisive 35 per cent on its side, the party cannot resist the temptation to seek its share of seats in the assembly elections next year.

The DMK leader said that while it could be expected to seek up to 50 seats in a total of 234, since the PMK and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will also make their demands, it could mean a reduced share for the coalition leader.

Unless the BJP engages in some tough bargaining, this could automatically lead to another coalition government in the state, the first of its kind," the DMK leader said.

The BJP may be taking its time but it appears to be aiming to have its own chief minister in the state by 2006, if not earlier. The MDMK, if not the PMK, also seems to nurture such hopes but the DMK is unwilling to yield.

"How far it goes will depend on the assembly elections next year, and also on the BJP's strategic decision concerning its allies at the national level. While a stable Vajpayee government could mean continuity, it could also encourage sections of the BJP, to assert itself vis a vis its allies, signs of which are already visible," the leader said.

However, another leader said that with the TMC teaming up with the AIADMK, the BJP is stuck with the DMK. Also, he said, the BJP doesn't have roots, nor the confidence to strike it on its own in the state; if it does, it also could mess up its coalition at the national level.

So for the present, it will have to learn to live with the status quo.

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