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Nawanshahr by-polls crucial for Punjab politics

Neena Chaudhary in Nawanshahr

Otherwise a nondescript little assembly constituency, Nawanshahr is set to create history now, when its 148,000 voters exercise their right to franchise on February 17. The results could prove crucial for beleaguered Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and Capt Amarinder Singh, the scion of the royal family of the erstwhile princely state of Patiala who heads the faction-ridden Congress.

Elections were forced here after sitting legislator Charanjit Singh Channi was elected as a member of Parliament on a Congress ticket. Channi, who had won the seat as an independent in February 1997, is the son of the veteran Congress leader Dilbagh Singh, who has represented this seat in every election since 1968, except in 1977, when he lost in the post-Emergency era.

The Congress has fielded the nephew of the late Dilbagh Singh, Parkash Singh; the ruling Akali Dal has Jatinder Singh Kariha, while the All-India Shiromani Akali Dal has fielded Nachhattar Singh. The BSP has put up old warhorse Darshan Lal Jethumajra. Though it appears a multi-cornered contest, the fight here, for all practical purposes, is directly between the Congress and the Akali Dal.

Badal, whose ruling Shiromani Akali Dal has faced defeat after defeat, including the loss of the Adampur assembly seat to the Congress and suffered a major drubbing in the recent Lok Sabha polls, is desperate for a win.

After the Adampur by-election, Badal faced a revolt led by the veteran leader and then SGPC chief G S Tohra, who was subsequently expelled. Last year, a known Badal confidant and former speaker of the state assembly, Ravi Inder Singh, was suspended when he sought a change in leadership after the party's dismal performance in the Lok Sabha elections.

These setbacks eroded the leadership of Badal, who had spearheaded the SAD-BJP combine to a landslide victory in the 1996 and 1998 Lok Sabha elections and the 1997 assembly polls. Noting the restlessness within the party, Badal included 15 more legislators, to increase the number of his council of ministers to 41.

Of course, the result of this seat will have no effect on the present government where the ruling alliance has a strength of 92 in an assembly of 117 legislators. The SAD has 74, of which at least 12 owe allegiance to the party floated by Tohra and four others of the Ravi Inder camp.

Of the BJP's 18 MLAs, two revolted after being denied ministerial berths and now face disciplinary action. Others have been disgruntled over the attitude of the SAD leaders towards the demands of urban voters, especially Hindus.

Observers feel that pressure on Badal from rebels and the BJP could mount if the SAD loses Nawanshahr.

One critic said, "After losing the Lok Sabha polls, Badal had to induct 15 new ministers. If he loses Nawanshahr, he may have to make all the legislators ministers to save his government."

The result is also important for the Congress state leadership. The party had done better after Capt Amarinder Singh took charge and a win here could consolidate his position which is still shaky. The factions led by former chief ministers, Mrs. Rajinder Kaur Bhattal and Harcharan Singh Brar, and youth leader Jagmeet Singh Brar and veteran Santokh Singh Randhawa, have yet to accept that a former Akali has been promoted over them.

About 18 months ago, Capt Singh had returned to the Congress fold after associating with various Akali factions for 14 years. He had left the party to protest against 'Operation Bluestar' in June 1984. A defeat in Nawanshar could increase dissident activity here.

Naturally, the campaigning is vicious, with senior leaders of rival parties indulging in some very public mud-slinging.

The caste factor plays a major role too. Of the total 148,000 votes, 55,000 are from scheduled castes (SCs), 16,000 from the other backward classes (OBCs), 22,000 are Sainis and 15,000 are Hindus. The upper caste Jat Sikhs account for 40,000 votes.

The Congress is banking upon its traditional support base in the SCs, OBCs, Sainis and the Hindus. It has attempted to make capital of the failures of the Badal government.

The Akalis are banking on the charisma of Badal, who is accepted as the tallest political figure in the state. The state government has also tried to lure the people through eleventh-hour allocation of grants for development projects like road construction and payment of the pensions.

This constituency, which falls under the Doaba region of the state, has a significant population of non-resident Indians. However, the area is predominantly rural in nature, as there are only two towns, with about 36,000 voters, in the constituency. There are also 132 villages.

Assembly Election 2000

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