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A big leap in the offing

Thirty-six-and-a-half years after Jawaharlal Nehru sought to use Sheikh Abdullah as a sounding board to probe the mind of the then military ruler of Pakistan Field Marshal Ayub Khan on resolving the Kashmir dispute, Atal Bihari Vajpayee is inclined to emulate his most favourite predecessor. With the Hurriyat Conference poised to come on board, New Delhi is all set to allow three or four leaders of the Srinagar-based conglomerate to visit Pakistan to talk to General Pervez Musharraf and also ascertain the views of their counterparts in "Azad Kashmir" across the Line of Control.

Sufficient home work has already been done, both in India and Pakistan. The possibility of the crucial visit taking place in the near future, probably soon after the end of the holy month of Ramzan brightened after the Hurriyat's formal positive response on Sunday. The trip will not have any apparent official colour or complexion. Three or four Hurriyat leaders -- probably Mirwaiz Omar Farooq, Prof Abdul Ghani Butt (Hurriyat chief) and Yasin Malik -- will be allowed to travel to Pakistan, a la Abdul Ghani Lone who has just returned from Pakistan after holding his son's marriage ceremony in the neighbouring country.

New Delhi seems to be fairly pleased with at least the immediate outcome of Lone's visit during which he also met Gen Musharraf and for the first time held a series of meetings with leaders from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. The Hurriyat leaders have been articulating the proposition that they be allowed to go across and 'persuade' the Pakistan-based militants operating in Kashmir to accept India's peace offer.

Lone claimed to have sounded the Pakistani military ruler as well as some of the militant leaders while he was in Pakistan. Two important assertions made by Lone in Pakistan were that the militants (who include non-Kashmiri foreign elements) should let the Hurriyat (exclusively a Kashmiri outfit) deal with the political issues including the dialogue and that the political character of the 'struggle' should not be distorted with interjection of varying shades of (extremist) religious ideologies.

Perhaps one of Lone's most important contacts in this process was with the Hizbul Mujahideen supremo Syed Salahuddin who is a member of the 14-member Jehad Council comprising militant outfits based in Pakistan. Salahuddin had retracted and called off the previous ceasefire which the Hizb had unilaterally declared from Srinagar last July under pressure from the Jehad Council. Pakistan was believed to be behind his retraction as it felt left out from the Indian-sponsored initiative.

Evidently that eventuality has been taken care of this time. If the Hurriyat leaders' trip turns out be productive Salahuddin might as well find an opening to return to his home in the Valley. His current visit to Saudi Arabia where he is due to meet the Hizb and Jamaat leaders from Kashmir, Majid Dar and GM Bhat, is a step in that direction.

From the 'Azad Kashmir' side, the strongest support to the Lone line came from Sardar Abdul Qayum Khan, the Muslim Conference supremo who is a formidable political force across the LoC. Khan who calls himself 'Mujahid-e-Awal' (the first crusader) has been in the forefront of the so-called Kashmir liberation movement.

Even so, one must keep one's fingers crossed about the fate of the Hurriyat leaders' Pakistan yatra, if and when it takes place. It is not only that the accumulated complexities of the five-decade old Kashmir dispute pose the heaviest of odds at every step towards its resolution. History also shows that even providence feels tempted to contribute its share of problems.

Sheikh Abdullah had to cut short his 1964 visit to Pakistan, following Nehru's sudden death. Ironically, death again intervened two years later when Lal Bahadur Shastri died of a heart attack in Tashkent in 1966, hours after he had struck a fairly close equation with Ayub Khan over Kashmir. The successful Soviet mediation in ending the 1965 Indo-Pakistan war had revived the hopes about an early solution to the Kashmir tangle.

Even though the Sheikh lived till long after Nehru and Shastri and also continued to maintain his unchallenged influence over hearts and minds of Kashmiris, the kind of mediatory role which Nehru had carved for him in 1964 did not come his way till his death in 1982.

Only time can tell whether Vajpayee will have better luck vis-a-vis the Hurriyat leaders whose rating is far below that of Nehru's contemporary in Kashmir.

But there is no doubt that Vajpayee is in full command on his side of the triangle. And that, according to New Delhi's diplomatic circles, is the most credible guarantee of his ability to press ahead with his Kashmir initiative.

Vajpayee's stature as well as his age beckon him to try and complete Nehru's unfinished agenda. No doubt Vajpayee has fewer options than Nehru had nearly four decades ago.

The real problem, however, lies at the other two ends of the Kashmir triangle. Unlike Vajpayee, General Pervez Musharraf is seen to be precariously placed in the Pakistani power structure. As it is, India seems to be satisfied with Musharraf's measures to de-escalate tension along borders which is a prerequisite for checking infiltration of armed militants into Kashmir. But there are serious doubts about Musharraf's capacity to rein in fanatic armed gangs like Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Toiba who continue to defy Vajpayee's ceasefire in Kashmir and have vowed to torpedo this effort. These elements are also trying to fish in the troubled waters of the secessionist politics in Kashmir. They are very active behind the rumblings within the Hurriyat edifice.

It is on them that the hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani has been leaning to settle scores with moderates within the Hurriyat fold. Interestingly, Geelani is also at loggerheads with the chief of his parent organisation Jamaat-e-Islami Ghulam Mohammad Bhat. Bhat as well as the Hizbul Mujahideen have been strong votaries of a positive response to Vajpayee's initiative.

In fact, the policy makers in Delhi seem to be rather uncomfortable with these goings-on in the Valley. With the popular mood asserting itself, the general atmosphere in Kashmir is becoming more and more conducive for peace and dialogue. Any split at this critical juncture, in the Hurriyat or the Hizb, will obviously retard the peace process and only embolden anti-peace forces. Soon after the collapse of the July ceasefire, one central intelligence agency had sought to precipitate a split in the Hizb but the idea was shot down by the PMO. New Delhi seems to be assessing the political situation more comprehensively than the agencies engaged in operations on the ground.

Abeer Malik