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The Rediff Special/ Mariana Baabar

If the Daughter of the East were to return to Pakistan, she would prove beyond doubt that unlike the Punjabi prime minister of the heavy mandate, she is made of sterner stuff.

General Pervez Musharraf's military regime would no doubt lead her straight to jail, as warrants for her arrest were announced some time back.

But will Benazir Bhutto return? "The sad fact is that parochialism rules the establishment. It has little love for leaders from the smaller provinces and does not desire to end their victimisation. The proof of that is Nawaz Sharif's release through a clandestine deal after having just begun his jail term. Asif Zardari, on the other hand, completed his jail term before his appeal was even heard. The deal was between two establishments. They fell out in 1999 and made up in 2000," Benazir Bhutto told rediff.com

There is no escaping the fact that the half-a-dozen generals ruling Pakistan have sent a clear signal to the smaller provinces that come what may, the Punjab holds sway over the establishment .

"When a prime minister from Sindh was being hanged, the royalty in Saudi Arabia looked the other way. Today, when it comes to a former prime minister from the Punjab, who is a thief and a convict, the Saudis move swiftly and whisk him away to the comforts of a royal palace," complains General Nasirullah Babar, a close aide of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and a confidant of the latter's daughter.

This is not the first time in over a year that the military junta has annoyed the smaller provinces. The National Accountability Bureau, headed by a serving general, focussed primarily on the North West Frontier Province when it came to charging politicians and bureaucrats with corruption.

"This is appalling. Are there no corrupt people in the country's largest province?" asked Esfandyar Wali Khan, president of the Awami National Party which has its roots in the frontier province. One of their senior leaders, Azim Hot, was arrested and has been fined heavily as well as disqualified from politics for 21 years.

Countless other politicians and bureaucrats have also been arrested from the same province. A former minister of the Pakistan Muslim League, also from the frontier, Anwer Khan Saifullah, was given such a heavy punishment (including disqualification from politics for 21 years) that even the Punjabi media squirmed in embarrassment.

"His only crime as proved by the NAB was that he gave employment to some very petty people in his ministry. What about the kind of employment and cushy jobs the military regime has been doling out after coming to power? They have a fleet of consultants who are earning millions in salaries and perks," was one comment heard from the Punjab.

In sharp contrast are reports in the independent media, not denied by the regime, that the Punjabi leadership within the Muslim League is in fact being patronised by the regime. A former minister and his clan who, it is no secret, together with the Sharifs, looted billions both at home and abroad are roaming free. Recently, when an NAB official tried to turn on the heat, he was asked to come to the home of a cabinet member, where the minister introduced said ex-minister to the NAB official.

Today no one dare touch this former minister who belong to the dissident group of the Muslim League which split when Nawaz Sharif joined the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy.

It is not over prosecution, General Musharraf's attempts to construct the Kalabagh dam had also raised temperatures in the smaller provinces, and it was only when several of his chief ministers, governors and ministers resigned from the government that better sense prevailed. In all, 13 of his nominees have resigned in one year, a majority of them over his policy on building the Kalabagh dam.

Allowing Sharif a safe exit, little does General Musharraf realise, has brought the smaller provinces together. This is one card that Benazir will play to the hilt as demands by her workers to return are already being heard. She had in fact overplayed the Sindh card for several years, and no one could visualise the polity taking such a turn, to facilitate Benazir's return.

Perhaps this is one reason why the generals are bending over trying to offer Zardari a similar safe exit. "Asif Zardari had been approached from time to time by the government, the last time being in November. Zardari said he was neither a defaulter nor had he abused public office. His lawyer had explained that Zardari was a businessman and if he had broken the law or taken funds connected to the public exchequer, documents of evidential value may be provided. None were," says Benazir.

For the time being, the PML is groping in the dark after the Sharif clan deserted them. Immense infighting has been going on for the party's leadership, right from the time the junta overthrew the Sharif government.

The timing thus is perfect for Benazir. Even if thrown behind bars, she would be a deadly foe for the military government. She has experience of taking on the military, as she did in the time of another military dictator, Zia ul Haq. In fact, Benazir is at her best while in the Opposition. To help her is the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy which has managed to attract all the main political parties from the smaller provinces.

The main components of the ARD are the PPP and the PML, along with the Awami National Party and the Muttihida Quami Movement. Of importance is the Jamoori Watan Party of Akber Bugti from Baluchistan. The ARD hopes to take off after Eid at the end of December and start off by workers courting arrest. The politicians sense the situation which normally prevails in Pakistan: Unemployment, inflation, deteriorating law and order and failure to govern by the regime.

Combined with this is General Musharraf's failure to deliver. He has failed on every count and his generals are aware of it. More perturbing for the army is that after being pushed back to the barracks for over a decade, they are reaching the heights of unpopularity as it was in the days of Zia ul Haq. This, the army cannot afford.

"Unless the establishment bows before the will of the people, the future of democracy and of the people appears bleak. However, I am optimistic that public anger will vent sooner than later. The establishment is unable to substantiate what national interests were a stake in freeing Nawaz Sharif other than favouritism. It's time to end favouritism, repeal the NAB, free political prisoners and hold fair elections," is how Benazir sees the situation.

On Thursday, the PPP's central executive committee demanded that Benazir should take advantage of the present situation as the nation's yearning for a leadership can be filled only by her. "She will come in broad daylight and not in the darkness of the night, and will be welcomed by a mammoth crowd," said PPP deputy secretary general Raza Rabbani.

The Rediff Specials

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