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The Second Coming

Had someone said at the beginning of the year that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would return to power, he would have been labelled as biased. Today, if someone were to deny the alliance a majority in the election, he would be considered biased. I do not want to hazard figures. But I have no doubt, after touring some 12 states, that the NDA will win comfortably.

The two states, which the BJP and its allies look like losing, are Gujarat and Punjab. Similarly, the Congress, which was poised for substantial gains in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, has got stuck in both states.

If the Janata Dal had stayed as one party, the Congress would have won hands down in Karnataka. But the present combination -- the 'United' part combining with the BJP and the Lok Shakti -- will eat into the Congress vote. So will Deve Gowda's Janata Dal (Secular).

The Telugu Desam in Andhra Pradesh, as a survey by a leading newspaper in the state showed, was losing heavily to the Congress in the Lok Sabha election. By having seat adjustments with the BJP, the Telugu Desam may be able to get the BJP vote, which is necessary for it to win in marginal constituencies. The Telugu Desam seems to have taken a calculated risk, believing that the Muslim vote it loses because of its alliance with the BJP will be made up by BJP supporters.

Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress has more or less replaced the Congress in West Bengal. The CPI-M will still get a majority, thanks primarily to Chief Minister Jyoti Basu's image. But the main loss is that of the Congress, which is diminishing in the state day by day.

Former Lok Sabha speaker Purno A Sangma is making waves in the North-East. The number of seats in the area is, however, so few that he can bring about only one or two upsets. The Asom Gana Parishad is such a divided house that the Congress will gain by default. Moreover, Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta's statement that the ISI has hideouts in mosques and madrasas has upset the Muslims, who are moving towards the Congress.

The real loss for the Congress may be in Maharashtra because of the Sharad Pawar factor. He will take several Congress seats. He has worked hard and not left the state since he constituted his party. He may fling a surprise in the Maratha bastion. The Maharashtra assembly will however, be a hung one -- not even the Shiv Sena-BJP combine getting a majority.

It is a confusing scene. The Congress could have done better if Sonia Gandhi had clicked with the masses. She did very well as Congress president, probably because she did not have to interact as much with people as she has to do now. As the party chief, she refurbished the Congress, which wrested power from the BJP in Delhi and Rajasthan and retained its hold on Madhya Pradesh. Her downfall and that of her party began when they tried to form a government at the Centre. If they had only been patient, power would have fallen in their lap like ripe fruit.

If one were to point out the exact time for the downward trend, it would be the press conference where she claimed she had the support of 272 members. The graph fell rapidly when she could not make good her claim. Perhaps people accept her as the Congress president, not as the country's prime minister, somewhat influenced as they are by her Italian origin and her inability to go beyond the written speech.

If by a miracle, she had made the prime minister's seat, the Congress's electoral prospects would have been far brighter. She would have faced the Kargil incursion and earned kudos for having rolled it back. The Congress would have got the electoral advantage which the BJP-led alliance now has. Kargil is still very much on the voters's mind and they give credit to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee for the victory, if not the BJP.

The Vajpayee government's performance was so bad after one year of its rule that even the most optimistic supporter did not give the BJP more than a hundred seats. Vajpayee's bus ride to Pakistan improved his image enormously. The manner in which he faced the violation of the Line of Control demonstrated his grit and restraint. He emerged a tall, mature leader. It is his stock which has increased the BJP's chances of success. The party may improve its figure of 181 in the last Lok Sabha by getting 10 or 15 more seats.

The BJP expected a wave in its favour in the north. It does not look like that will happen. Although Vajpayee's liberal image has been able to disguise the party's Hindutva stance, both Christians and Muslims still feel diffident about the BJP. Some of them have moved towards the Congress, but a substantial segment still supports regional parties.

Sonia Gandhi is evoking a better response in the south compared to the north. Even in the election that followed the Emergency, the south returned the Congress in a big way. The party was then wiped out in the north. If the election develops into a referendum between Vajpayee and Sonia, as RSS cadres are trying to convey, the Congress may not win even the 141 seats it had in the dissolved House.

The BJP would like to secure as many seats on its own. It is no more a secret that there is confrontation between L K Advani, who is in charge of the BJP campaign, and George Fernandes, president of the Samata Party which has sucked in the Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Shakti. Differences over the distribution of seats between the BJP and other NDA constituents were bad enough, but they may be accentuated after the poll. Then, it will be a fight for power.

The alliance may not stay as coherent as it looks today. If the BJP falls to improve upon its 1998 tally of 181, it will face a challenge from its allies. The Congress may also have to confront the same situation. Both its allies, Jayalalitha of the AIADMK and Laloo Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, are already looking at formulating a post-poll strategy.

In the midst of speculation of differences between the BJP and its allies on the one hand, and the Congress and its allies on the other, the non-BJP/non-Congress parties have begun to examine if the BJP and the Congress can be played against each other for a third alternative to emerge. Such possibilities may become realities if the BJP and Congress secure fewer seats than they had in the last Lok Sabha. If the other parties secure around 200 seats, India's politics will undergo a drastic change.

Anyone from among Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Laloo Prasad Yadav, Jayalalitha, Mayawati and the last, though not the least, George Fernandes, may throw his/her hat in the ring. And what seems settled now -- Vajpayee returning as prime minister -- may be reopened once again. The fat then will truly be in the fire.

Kuldip Nayar