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Congress inching closer to DMK

The Congress appears to be moving closer to the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, as a direct fallout of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham sticking firmly to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition at the Centre, notwithstanding the earlier talk of keeping its option on continued support to the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government open.

The latest indication of this closeness came from Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief M Karunanidhi when he appreciated Congress president Sonia Gandhi's stand on Bihar.

"I am very happy that the Congress and its president Sonia Gandhi have given a nose-cut to Article 356 by sticking to their stand," Karunanidhi has said, in his initial reaction to the Centre revoking President's rule in Bihar. "I wish the revocation will be a first step towards the repeal of Article 356," he added, reiterating the DMK's better-known position of years.

Asked at a media conference in Madras today on whether the Congress would have a tie-up with the DMK since the AIADMK was now firmly in the company of the BJP, Tamil Nadu Congress unit president Tindivanam K Ramamurthy evaded a direct answer, but did not rule out an alliance at the time of the next elections. However, he clarified that the party high command alone would decide on the issue of alliance.

The Congress could even go it alone if it was strong enough at the time of elections, he added.

For all the brave face that the DMK has displayed since Karunanidhi's statement, the party is breathing easy with the 'Bihar restoration'. It means the AIADMK cannot push the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government further on its persistent demand for the dismissal of the Karunanidhi regime in the state. "Not for some more time, at least," says a DMK source.

A Congress vote in the Rajya Sabha favouring the Bihar dismissal would have meant that the party might not be politically averse to such a course being followed in Tamil Nadu. The fever was palpable in the DMK inner circles even after the Congress made known its stand. "Now an open vote against the 'Bihar dismissal' in the Rajya Sabha means that the Congress has taken a principled position on the very question of Article 356."

With the 'Bihar resolution' passing the 'confidence-test' in the Lok Sabha after the initial Telugu Desam Party haggling, and the Budget and the 'bus diplomacy' of Prime Minister Vajpayee too proving 'popular', any positive vote for the 'Bihar resolution' in the Upper House could have led to the Bharatiya Janata Party considering the possibilities of a 'snap poll' to the Lok Sabha along with the assembly elections in nine states later this year, or early next year.

Adding Tamil Nadu to the list, and making it all a 'mini-general elections' and a 'referendum of sorts' on the Vajpayee government, would have served the BJP's purposes, says an informed source. "The Rajya Sabha defeat has put paid to that idea."

According to this source, the 'Bihar resolution' has brought the Congress out on the side of other anti-BJP parties. "The Congress was hesitating for long, to identify itself with the emerging 'Third Front'. The 'Bihar resolution' conclusively decided that issue," he says. "If the BJP coalition has anyone to blame for this in political terms, it's only the Vajpayee government."

However, this source also refers to the decisions of the TDP and the AIADMK, the former in particular, to stick to the BJP, on the 'Bihar issue'.

"Once the TDP took its decision, and the AIADMK had no cause for complaints against the BJP. After the Centre's stand on the 'special courts' against J Jayalalitha, the issue was settled. With the BJP allies closing ranks, it became necessary for the Congress to run for coalition cover of some kind," he says.

According to these sources, the TDP was forced to take a 'fast decision' on the Lok Sabha voting after the prime minister set a deadline. AIADMK parliamentary group leader 'Sedappatti' R Muthiah too had spoken to his TDP counterpart Yerran Naidu, though it concerned mostly the 'regional angle' to the evolving situation. As is known, assembly elections are due in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka later this year, and the discussions centred around that.

If, however, the BJP was forced to take up the issue before the Lok Sabha, without letting it lapse, "it was only because Home Minister Lal Kishenchand Advani threatened to resign, otherwise. If the resolution had been defeated in the Lok Sabha, then again, he would have quit, owning up moral responsibility, as the one who chaired the Cabinet meeting recommending President's rule in the prime minister's absence. That would have contained 'further damage' to the government. But it helped the BJP win a 'confidence-vote' of sorts before the Budget, though the 'Rajya Sabha defeat' has done some damage, after all."

Sources also feel that a lot on the 'Bihar front' will now depend on the conduct of the incoming Rashtriya Janata Dal government, and its ability to contain the law and order situation. "If a few more incidents of the Jehanabad variety were to be revived, then it would have justified before the people, the need for imposing President's rule. Now that the RJD legislators know, their stay in office may not be eternal, they too may be in a rush to 'finish their unifinished tasks'. That's where trouble may arise for the DMK government, too."

While the DMK has lost no opportunity to try move closer to the Congress in the past weeks - Karunanidhi was the first one to condemn Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha dropping welfare schemes named after Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi in his Budget - the latter's political compulsions and limitations too are not being underestimated.

"Any revival of the investigations into the Rajiv Gandhi assassination, and the Multi-Disciplinary Monitoring Agency coming to interrogate Karunanidhi, as desired by the Jain Commission report, may force the Congress not to accept the DMK's hand of friendship."

Local newspapers, and also Opposition parties like the AIADMK, BJP and Thamizhaga Rajiv Congress have been raising the 'Coimbatore serial blasts', time and again, claiming that the state government was not firm against the 'ISI-trained' Islamic fundamentalists. "Unlike in Bihar, where a 'constitutional breakdown' was cited for the imposition of President's rule, here in Tamil Nadu, the Centre handling the law and order situation, following the failure of the state government to check the spread of foreign-based terrorism with its limited resources, experience and expertise, could do the trick. The state government's repeated denial to order a Central Bureau of Investigation inquiry into the 'Coimbatore blasts' may not help matters in the long run."

For its part, the AIADMK is believed to be keeping its Congress options, open. While the party has no palpable reason now to upset the BJP applecart, it may feel more comfortable in the Congress' company during election time, particularly if the perceived popular bias shifts in its favour.

For the Congress, it would mean breaking the BJP-AIADMK alliance in Tamil Nadu, with its 39 Lok Sabha seats, and denying its national opponent a credible electoral ally in the state. Ideologically and politically, the DMK cannot come out openly on the BJP's side in the elections, whatever be the post-poll scenario.

And that's what's nagging the DMK minds now - despite Vajpayee declaring, "Dismissing the Karunanidhi government is like dismissing my government", thus implying that the AIADMK would desert the BJP for the Congress once the act was done.

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras and UNI

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